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Blog is not dead! Just lurking and collating things waiting for the season proper to start.
Also working hard on some horse racing rating potential - a major winner let slip to me a few of his secrets a few months ago so I'm all over trying to emulate at least half his ROI on horse racing! From everything I've seen so far, I'm pleasantly surprised at the rareness with which a real non-trier comes up.
Looking forward to mid-september. Crying about not having backed Torquay ante-post, thought I was getting too carried away with them but I really don't think that I was. OOPS!
Showing posts with label Gambling. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Gambling. Show all posts
Tuesday, 24 August 2010
Saturday, 20 February 2010
Good start to the blog record
Ok - here are the closers I have (not all are from pinn, just best price that was available at the off at a "proper" bookmaker, figures from oddsportal):
Arsenal 1.25
Portsmouth x 2 2.28
West Ham 1.72
Fulham x 2 Sun
Wrexham 2.08
Blackpool 2.35
Palace 2.05 (!)
Peterborough Void
Oldham x 2 5.4
Stockport x 2 4.9
Carlisle 4.52
Tranmere 2.26
AFC Wimbledon 3.9
Newcastle 1.48
So - counting the x2s as 2 bets, I make that 15 points staked today and 9.84 points profit for an overall figure of 16 bets, 8.84 points profit, and a 55.25% Yield.
Obviously, can't continue at that level of performance. But its nice to have a good start.
Add one more for tomorrow, another short one I am afraid - Aston Villa.
Other than that, my golfer went out by the narrowest of margins, leaving me again wishing I hadn't promised not to lay off! But still, there will be one by the end of the year, I hope! Also a crap day on the horses, that undid a good proportion of the good work on the football - but they are volatile markets, i'm sure it will come back in the long run.
Let's hope for a decent night on the US sports.
Arsenal 1.25
Portsmouth x 2 2.28
West Ham 1.72
Fulham x 2 Sun
Wrexham 2.08
Blackpool 2.35
Palace 2.05 (!)
Peterborough Void
Oldham x 2 5.4
Stockport x 2 4.9
Carlisle 4.52
Tranmere 2.26
AFC Wimbledon 3.9
Newcastle 1.48
So - counting the x2s as 2 bets, I make that 15 points staked today and 9.84 points profit for an overall figure of 16 bets, 8.84 points profit, and a 55.25% Yield.
Obviously, can't continue at that level of performance. But its nice to have a good start.
Add one more for tomorrow, another short one I am afraid - Aston Villa.
Other than that, my golfer went out by the narrowest of margins, leaving me again wishing I hadn't promised not to lay off! But still, there will be one by the end of the year, I hope! Also a crap day on the horses, that undid a good proportion of the good work on the football - but they are volatile markets, i'm sure it will come back in the long run.
Let's hope for a decent night on the US sports.
Prepare for saturday
Well, torquay couldn't get it done. Interesting market on the game, rotherham from 1.60 to 1.83 back to 1.70, torquay into 5.5 then back to 6.6 at the off. Played it well but didn't get the result I wanted.
Some interesting games tomorrow though.
Oldham and stockport are both double qualifiers like torquay was. Fulham to beat the artificially mighty Birmingham City on sunday (and in a bizarre twist of fate I'll be at the game, supporting blues but betting heavily on fulham!) looks like another decent one.
For the record, torquay closed at pinnacle at 6.24. 1 bet, 1 loser so far.
Arsenal
Portsmouth x 2
West Ham
Fulham x 2
Wrexham
Blackpool
Palace
Peterborough
Oldham x 2
Stockport x 2
Carlisle
Tranmere
AFC Wimbledon
Portsmouth another double stake. Yuck.
One of Stockport or Oldham would guarantee a good day I am sure.
Good luck if you do follow - and remember, only follow if you can handle losing as well as winning!
Some interesting games tomorrow though.
Oldham and stockport are both double qualifiers like torquay was. Fulham to beat the artificially mighty Birmingham City on sunday (and in a bizarre twist of fate I'll be at the game, supporting blues but betting heavily on fulham!) looks like another decent one.
For the record, torquay closed at pinnacle at 6.24. 1 bet, 1 loser so far.
Arsenal
Portsmouth x 2
West Ham
Fulham x 2
Wrexham
Blackpool
Palace
Peterborough
Oldham x 2
Stockport x 2
Carlisle
Tranmere
AFC Wimbledon
Portsmouth another double stake. Yuck.
One of Stockport or Oldham would guarantee a good day I am sure.
Good luck if you do follow - and remember, only follow if you can handle losing as well as winning!
Thursday, 18 February 2010
The follow-up
Well, 0-2 in Europa league for me on the main bets, picking up a tiny win on my other bet. Real sod's law sort of day.
Still, did accounts and finances and things are still brighter than I realised. With some tightening of credit lines etc I should be able to weather the same storm I have over the last 6/7 weeks all over again, and it still wouldn't have too much impact (apart from pretty much making sure I won't be in profit for 2010 of course!)
37k green on a golfer in the world matchplay. So tempting to lay some off but I have promised myself that I won't do it. If it comes in, then it certainly stops me worrying for the year!
Spent the whole week working hard on getting a spreadsheet up and running. An idea that I had a while back that I've decided has to be put into play. It is basically filtering some of my better bets, and the results for the season had I been betting them at best gettable prices near the off (found from www.oddsportal.com) would have been:
166.96 profits from 527 units staked (majority of bets staking 2 points, occasional 3 point play, rare 1 unit play, possible (but not yet seen) 4 unit play (which will inevitably lose I'm sure!). ROI of 31.68%.
There's no backfitting been done and the filtering makes total sense. I had no idea what the results would be before I applied the filters, and have done no tweaking since.
I followed it through with 4 different staking methods and weighting the one most important rating in with the entire bunch differently. Interestingly all four methods return between 30 and 33% ROI season so far, but the level staking (x per point, so a 2 point bet you would bet say £20 if you were playing for £10 per unit) is the smoothest when graphed, so the easiest to swallow the downtrends on.
It also points out something I have known for a long time. If you want the big ROIs on football, you need to go after the big priced underdogs at the right time (i.e. when the value is there of course). I'll try to post all the plays on the blog and keep a record if it doesn't prove too time-consuming.
There will be one play for tomorrow - a 2 unit play, torquay at rotherham. I won't put prices up until the lines have closed - i'll get the historical best price from pinnacle from www.oddsportal.com and use that for proofing.
Wouldn't put anyone off taking the 11/2 with coral or tote if they can get on at those fools (especially with coral's 10% cashback - after all, the bet, whilst value, is most likely to lose). Skybet were 6/1 but hitting the 6.6 on betfair has ruined that - I also had 20 quid on on a mate's skybet account we go halves on, I have promised not to blow it with any big stakes! However these warm favourites can go off very short (artificially so) when they are the friday night game. The initial moves on the asian lines suggest Rotherham will drift, but experience tell me that the day of the game market can be a totally different dynamic (and also team news could change things).
From a quick eye on the team news it seems that both teams are a little short of firepower and want a striker. It will be interesting to see if/how that affects the goal line. Under 2.5 a best price in asia right now of 1.88, let's see how it goes.
If you follow - good luck - but don't even consider it unless you can handle losing runs. I'm sure there will be more than one significant one on this journey.
Still, did accounts and finances and things are still brighter than I realised. With some tightening of credit lines etc I should be able to weather the same storm I have over the last 6/7 weeks all over again, and it still wouldn't have too much impact (apart from pretty much making sure I won't be in profit for 2010 of course!)
37k green on a golfer in the world matchplay. So tempting to lay some off but I have promised myself that I won't do it. If it comes in, then it certainly stops me worrying for the year!
Spent the whole week working hard on getting a spreadsheet up and running. An idea that I had a while back that I've decided has to be put into play. It is basically filtering some of my better bets, and the results for the season had I been betting them at best gettable prices near the off (found from www.oddsportal.com) would have been:
166.96 profits from 527 units staked (majority of bets staking 2 points, occasional 3 point play, rare 1 unit play, possible (but not yet seen) 4 unit play (which will inevitably lose I'm sure!). ROI of 31.68%.
There's no backfitting been done and the filtering makes total sense. I had no idea what the results would be before I applied the filters, and have done no tweaking since.
I followed it through with 4 different staking methods and weighting the one most important rating in with the entire bunch differently. Interestingly all four methods return between 30 and 33% ROI season so far, but the level staking (x per point, so a 2 point bet you would bet say £20 if you were playing for £10 per unit) is the smoothest when graphed, so the easiest to swallow the downtrends on.
It also points out something I have known for a long time. If you want the big ROIs on football, you need to go after the big priced underdogs at the right time (i.e. when the value is there of course). I'll try to post all the plays on the blog and keep a record if it doesn't prove too time-consuming.
There will be one play for tomorrow - a 2 unit play, torquay at rotherham. I won't put prices up until the lines have closed - i'll get the historical best price from pinnacle from www.oddsportal.com and use that for proofing.
Wouldn't put anyone off taking the 11/2 with coral or tote if they can get on at those fools (especially with coral's 10% cashback - after all, the bet, whilst value, is most likely to lose). Skybet were 6/1 but hitting the 6.6 on betfair has ruined that - I also had 20 quid on on a mate's skybet account we go halves on, I have promised not to blow it with any big stakes! However these warm favourites can go off very short (artificially so) when they are the friday night game. The initial moves on the asian lines suggest Rotherham will drift, but experience tell me that the day of the game market can be a totally different dynamic (and also team news could change things).
From a quick eye on the team news it seems that both teams are a little short of firepower and want a striker. It will be interesting to see if/how that affects the goal line. Under 2.5 a best price in asia right now of 1.88, let's see how it goes.
If you follow - good luck - but don't even consider it unless you can handle losing runs. I'm sure there will be more than one significant one on this journey.
Thurs 18 Feb
Well, 2 horrible wipeout days in the last 6, where you wouldn't believe the string of losers I have been backing. A lot of volatility with this turnover sort of strategy, and once again in a hole for the year on it. Would be nice to see it turn a profit and stay there - I hit a year high on it of +4k and now its decent numbers in the red again.
To be fair though, having had 2 days like that (and another rough one yesterday) in the last 6, I think up can be the only way forwards from here!
I'm also going through a major fine-tuning of my football ratings to try and strip out a "super-confidence system" which should limit the amount of losing days that I have. I'm trying to use a number of ratings in conjunction with each other, with the aim of knocking out the poor value bets, and hopefully coming up with something with a >10% ROI, which is the ultimate aim. I haven't got anything for this season that on its own is showing those sorts of figures (apart from the early signs on my US Sports bets) but hopefully I'll get something up and running before saturday so I can give it a live test (and post the selections on here!)
Stay lucky (or in my case, get lucky in the first place) - although I hope with being on Bayern heavy last night I haven't used up my luck allowance for the month!
To be fair though, having had 2 days like that (and another rough one yesterday) in the last 6, I think up can be the only way forwards from here!
I'm also going through a major fine-tuning of my football ratings to try and strip out a "super-confidence system" which should limit the amount of losing days that I have. I'm trying to use a number of ratings in conjunction with each other, with the aim of knocking out the poor value bets, and hopefully coming up with something with a >10% ROI, which is the ultimate aim. I haven't got anything for this season that on its own is showing those sorts of figures (apart from the early signs on my US Sports bets) but hopefully I'll get something up and running before saturday so I can give it a live test (and post the selections on here!)
Stay lucky (or in my case, get lucky in the first place) - although I hope with being on Bayern heavy last night I haven't used up my luck allowance for the month!
Friday, 12 February 2010
Time for a post
Right, looking to get more than one post a week going now.
Its been a tough week. A couple of big bets, one which I very much liked and won, one which I didn't like that lost, but that's the way it goes sometimes. I have looked through the big bets I've had this season, and there's been 67 of them in the prem and la liga. The spanish bets have shown very little edge, which is disappointing as its a league I've had a decent edge on in the past. The prem bets, there are 5 that I have had a strong feeling against. 2 have won and 3 have lost, so nothing conclusive (not that there would ever be anything conclusive in a sample of 5 bets!).
The upturn for the year that i described went up somewhere near 4k, then has settled down again at about 1k down. Its now becoming a fine balance - 6 weeks in it looks like it could be very tough to make any money maintaining this level of turnover (which is no surprise) - so I'll have to replace the turnover somehow (some arbitrage maybe - although that's also very boring and tough these days, although you can still get turnover by going after the tiny arbs I think) if I drop some of the stuff which looks like it has somewhere between a +2 and -2% edge.
Dabbling in the US sports again has started to have some success - thought I had put that to bed a few years ago when I was working 100-110 hours a week, but maybe not. Anything to get in front at the moment! Makes the 10k bet I missed even more painful, since with that under my belt I would be well in front for the year and confident. C'est la vie.
Its been a tough week. A couple of big bets, one which I very much liked and won, one which I didn't like that lost, but that's the way it goes sometimes. I have looked through the big bets I've had this season, and there's been 67 of them in the prem and la liga. The spanish bets have shown very little edge, which is disappointing as its a league I've had a decent edge on in the past. The prem bets, there are 5 that I have had a strong feeling against. 2 have won and 3 have lost, so nothing conclusive (not that there would ever be anything conclusive in a sample of 5 bets!).
The upturn for the year that i described went up somewhere near 4k, then has settled down again at about 1k down. Its now becoming a fine balance - 6 weeks in it looks like it could be very tough to make any money maintaining this level of turnover (which is no surprise) - so I'll have to replace the turnover somehow (some arbitrage maybe - although that's also very boring and tough these days, although you can still get turnover by going after the tiny arbs I think) if I drop some of the stuff which looks like it has somewhere between a +2 and -2% edge.
Dabbling in the US sports again has started to have some success - thought I had put that to bed a few years ago when I was working 100-110 hours a week, but maybe not. Anything to get in front at the moment! Makes the 10k bet I missed even more painful, since with that under my belt I would be well in front for the year and confident. C'est la vie.
Sunday, 7 February 2010
The swings
Well, my project "turnover fund" (which hopefully on the upshot of things will also make money, with a view to it being of interest once the coupons are well and truly all done) has had a very interesting year.
The basis behind it initially was to get turnover going to make sure that I remained safe from the evil betfair premium charge. Its certainly managed that - at the moment we must be looking at an ROI in the 1% level (if that) on a huge turnover.
Its hit a high some time last year of +27k, its then been down as far as in the red, then its been back up again - at the moment it has hit the front for the year 2010 (was 19k down at the worst stage).
The numbers are quite simply frightening. All logic dictates that by diversifying as much as I do in this project I should smooth out volatility, but it seems to be the total opposite! Zaragoza winning just now has put it up to 2.3k positive for this year. If it could make 12k by the end of this year I'd be very pleased - and as an ongoing project I am more confident now that there is profit to be made than I have ever been on the project. It's also been an amazing learning curve.
I'm not sure I've got the stomach for the day when that is the only fruit for me - hopefully it will never come. Despite a shocking start to the year from the coupon point of view, I'm a lot better positioned at close of business tonight than I have been for a few weeks. It would be nice to get some serious numbers for the year under the belt before the wedding, during the world cup - I'm still hopeful, and the markets are so huge and relatively easy to read (or were in 06) so there should be some decent opportunities.
Was 8k green on a golfer today which would have been most welcome, also 9k green on a horse - land one or two of those and the monthly/yearly P and L looks most different.
Time to keep cracking on, would take break even for the year by the end of the month quite happily!
The basis behind it initially was to get turnover going to make sure that I remained safe from the evil betfair premium charge. Its certainly managed that - at the moment we must be looking at an ROI in the 1% level (if that) on a huge turnover.
Its hit a high some time last year of +27k, its then been down as far as in the red, then its been back up again - at the moment it has hit the front for the year 2010 (was 19k down at the worst stage).
The numbers are quite simply frightening. All logic dictates that by diversifying as much as I do in this project I should smooth out volatility, but it seems to be the total opposite! Zaragoza winning just now has put it up to 2.3k positive for this year. If it could make 12k by the end of this year I'd be very pleased - and as an ongoing project I am more confident now that there is profit to be made than I have ever been on the project. It's also been an amazing learning curve.
I'm not sure I've got the stomach for the day when that is the only fruit for me - hopefully it will never come. Despite a shocking start to the year from the coupon point of view, I'm a lot better positioned at close of business tonight than I have been for a few weeks. It would be nice to get some serious numbers for the year under the belt before the wedding, during the world cup - I'm still hopeful, and the markets are so huge and relatively easy to read (or were in 06) so there should be some decent opportunities.
Was 8k green on a golfer today which would have been most welcome, also 9k green on a horse - land one or two of those and the monthly/yearly P and L looks most different.
Time to keep cracking on, would take break even for the year by the end of the month quite happily!
Tuesday, 19 January 2010
The drawdown continues
Well, it's been a horrible start to the year.
Just about avoided as bad a week as i had 2 weeks ago, but still some horrendous luck is being suffered.
On the bright side managed a huge arb with betfair that lost 56k at betfair, so that keeps the PC wolf even further from the door.
On the downside, it just isn't much fun at the moment. But it never is when it's like this. Must consider january as a month off next year. It's also left me wondering how much of a factor the weather has been.
This week has started badly as well. Hopefully I can turn it around by the end of the week, then push on next week. One day at a time at the moment.
Just about avoided as bad a week as i had 2 weeks ago, but still some horrendous luck is being suffered.
On the bright side managed a huge arb with betfair that lost 56k at betfair, so that keeps the PC wolf even further from the door.
On the downside, it just isn't much fun at the moment. But it never is when it's like this. Must consider january as a month off next year. It's also left me wondering how much of a factor the weather has been.
This week has started badly as well. Hopefully I can turn it around by the end of the week, then push on next week. One day at a time at the moment.
Thursday, 14 January 2010
A reader or two?
So apparently my blog has made it onto my facebook, somehow. Can't remember sharing it myself, but I guess I must have done!
Things ticking over slowly - another game passes which, a couple of years ago would have been a huge earner on the coupons, but in the "tight teenies" as they may well be called (as far as coupons are concerned) it passes without incident.
The weather still isn't helping, although at least the temperature is up a bit. Things are so quiet I'm even watching the cricket and having a blast at trading it. It's not going great at the moment, but (hopefully) its a 5 day event, so we'll see how we go.
Things ticking over slowly - another game passes which, a couple of years ago would have been a huge earner on the coupons, but in the "tight teenies" as they may well be called (as far as coupons are concerned) it passes without incident.
The weather still isn't helping, although at least the temperature is up a bit. Things are so quiet I'm even watching the cricket and having a blast at trading it. It's not going great at the moment, but (hopefully) its a 5 day event, so we'll see how we go.
Monday, 11 January 2010
The rollercoaster
Not the rollercoaster in the "standard" gambling sense of the word either.
Had one of my famous "ideas" earlier this week. I thought I was really on to something, so spent a little bit of time on it. I thought I had found a potential middle situation - a situation where I could get a bet on, place some clever hedge bets, and win either way - but also, in a rare situation, win on all bets placed, both the original bet and the hedges - hence creating a massive (potential) win.
Even better this bet was available regularly at the asian bookmakers, and was available in volume. It looked too good to be true - but not so good that I dismissed it out of hand.
As it goes, I was in a game situation tonight where I could have won 32k on the game. I also mistakenly thought that my worst result was +220 on the entire game. Looking more closely at the rules of the bet I was using, I could infact have been "polish middled" on the game and lost both sets of stakes (which would have been around -31.5k. And indeed I was only one goal away from doing so.
I am thankful that I didn't realise it at the time, otherwise there would have been major panic in the camp, I'm sure. A very close look now reveals that only extremely occasionally will this bet be viable, and then only as a value bet, not a bet to be hedged or middled pre-off.
The holy grail is back in the cupboard for a little longer then.
Next time, gadget.....
Had one of my famous "ideas" earlier this week. I thought I was really on to something, so spent a little bit of time on it. I thought I had found a potential middle situation - a situation where I could get a bet on, place some clever hedge bets, and win either way - but also, in a rare situation, win on all bets placed, both the original bet and the hedges - hence creating a massive (potential) win.
Even better this bet was available regularly at the asian bookmakers, and was available in volume. It looked too good to be true - but not so good that I dismissed it out of hand.
As it goes, I was in a game situation tonight where I could have won 32k on the game. I also mistakenly thought that my worst result was +220 on the entire game. Looking more closely at the rules of the bet I was using, I could infact have been "polish middled" on the game and lost both sets of stakes (which would have been around -31.5k. And indeed I was only one goal away from doing so.
I am thankful that I didn't realise it at the time, otherwise there would have been major panic in the camp, I'm sure. A very close look now reveals that only extremely occasionally will this bet be viable, and then only as a value bet, not a bet to be hedged or middled pre-off.
The holy grail is back in the cupboard for a little longer then.
Next time, gadget.....
Friday, 8 January 2010
What a start to the year!
Well, a big drawdown on the bank holiday 28th Dec didn't help kick things off. Had a tough time of it on multiple strategies, which is always bad news. One of those weeks that comes along maybe twice a year. Not the best way to start a new one!
Been dipping in and out of football in-play markets as well again - used to play on them quite a lot. It will remain to be seen whether the strategy I am employing there will reap any rewards (although I think it will in the long term).
Picked up nice and early on the general trends in tonight's championship game (West Brom vs Notts Forest) and will have a nice position if its under 2.5 goals and if WBA don't win. May indeed have started bailing out too early - but I've been foolish recently in not closing off what could have been some excellent trades - and every price has to stop somewhere, so I've got to approach these with a little more risk-aversion I think. I see 0-0 as a possible, or a sneaky 1-0 either way, or maybe 1-1. 1-0 forest looks like it could be a fair bet on betfair.
The rest of the weekend could well be a serious damp squib. I see it as unlikely that any lower league football will take place and Scotland looks largely if not completely out of the question. So here's hoping for some juicy continental action.
How the hell am I going to maintain a 2% account for the rest of january! Time will tell, although I have some holidays saved up which I'll be putting into practice I think.
Been dipping in and out of football in-play markets as well again - used to play on them quite a lot. It will remain to be seen whether the strategy I am employing there will reap any rewards (although I think it will in the long term).
Picked up nice and early on the general trends in tonight's championship game (West Brom vs Notts Forest) and will have a nice position if its under 2.5 goals and if WBA don't win. May indeed have started bailing out too early - but I've been foolish recently in not closing off what could have been some excellent trades - and every price has to stop somewhere, so I've got to approach these with a little more risk-aversion I think. I see 0-0 as a possible, or a sneaky 1-0 either way, or maybe 1-1. 1-0 forest looks like it could be a fair bet on betfair.
The rest of the weekend could well be a serious damp squib. I see it as unlikely that any lower league football will take place and Scotland looks largely if not completely out of the question. So here's hoping for some juicy continental action.
How the hell am I going to maintain a 2% account for the rest of january! Time will tell, although I have some holidays saved up which I'll be putting into practice I think.
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