Tuesday 27 December 2011

2012 and beyond

Results are continually mediocre, and it seems likely to me that a relatively "scattergun" approach which worked for me up until 2011 started, is having its problems.

I will list a few that I think there are:

i) Football ratings are now the "trendy" way to bet on football. Blogs pop up all the time, the models are not incredibly complex (although everyone has their nuances), extremely competent ones are even available for free online if you know where to look. They are all over SBC. There is also a tendency for the very best stuff not to make it out into the open market, of course.

ii) Books are getting smarter. They often delay pricing games until the first asian lines have come out. In the recent years the asian markets have got better and better (as one would expect) and those outlying 6/5 cases are becoming 11/10 and evens more often - the premiership bears this out more and more. Teams that used to be 6/5 regularly are much more often 2.04. Just as a few years ago the likes of Man Utd were at LEAST as superior c.f. their opponents as they are now, but you would take -1.5 to back them on the AH, not 1.75, 2 or more.

iii) The successful modellers get bigger and bigger bankrolls, and start betting earlier and earlier. I know a chap who bets on sunday, as soon as he can download the stats. Its all automated and I personally can't compete on that level. Even having said that, like almost all ratings players, he is struggling this season and is still making a net loss.

iv) services are now looking for other reasons for their poor(er) performances compared to the past, and are looking to cut each others throats on release times etc. That will inevitably end in tears, far more money pumped in by the sheep in the very early sensitive markets, most people will not get the prices released and rather than 10-40 people getting on early at the "proofed odds", it will be more like 2-8. This is why I have always proofed at closing lines, because they are the only fair gauge of what is really widely available. If Coral are 4/1 and the next best is 4.75, I don't have too much of a problem with it (although I will never get the 4/1). If they are 4/1 and the next is 10/3, and the average price is 10/3, then the problems will start, and claiming a 4/1 winner is only cheating the record (IMO). I respect the tipsters who proof at average prices on oddsportal or similar, or generally available prices, because they are actually achieveable for

Looking at my results for the season, and in the past, I am seeing a much better set of results from the best/strongest games. This has been borne out this year in the performance of the 1.5point and above bets. This is not a recurring pattern over the years however, which strongly suggests that this is variance. Its not news to me, and indeed backs up my own feelings about using Kelly, etc.

However, the strong bets have performed most consistently. I seek to provide a minimum of 5% ROI, otherwise I see no point sharing the bets with the blogosphere in the hopes that we can all make some profit. This seems to be best served by concentrating on the strongest bets, and making them yet stronger. I don't want to cut down to 75-100 bets per season particularly, because there is so much potential for variance to really rear its head, which is why i have always stuck with many more plays than some other sites.

There will always be a "backtesting" bias in the forms of modelling used. I have never seen the results from past histories replicated, which is why I strongly dislike a lot of the stuff that certain websites and forums churn out, especially when they don't make it 100% clear that "results" posted on a site are NOT results in action, but results of a model run over "new historical data". Its very misleading at least, if not wholeheartedly dishonest. I also would take any results not achieved within the last 24 months with a pinch of salt - the marketplace is dynamic, and it was very very much easier to make money in 2008 and before (from my own personal experience). Things move along quickly for the reasons above and other reasons. I would discount anything from 1-2 years ago quite keenly as well. Variance that is being exhibited is either 2+ Standard Devs away from the mean, or else the underlying assumptions are flawed. I favour the latter explanation, because this is not borne out in other forms of sports modelling in which I am involved. Yes, home and away wins can vary 6-8% per season, but that's nothing different from a number of other sports and areas that I have experienced.

It also makes more "sense" that there will be a handful of stronger plays rather than 10-15 glaring errors per matchday. The books do not give their money away. The strongest models use underlyings as only 30-40% of what they do, and there is a reason why these guys have built companies employing numerous quants - they are very very good at it. They are also using stats well beyond the capability of football-data etc.

So, I am going to look to become a LOT more stringent on play selection. Expect less plays of higher quality, and probably all of one unit only. I may well continue to track some plays, although I struggle to say the least with the results side of things, so I will have a think about this.

Here's to 2012 and putting on some points for the rest of this season, which has been tough so far for most in the soccer modelling game.

5 comments:

  1. Hi mate.

    Hope you had a good Christmas (betting aside!) and hopefully you’ll have a good New Year.

    Interesting post and nice to get another opinion on how this season is panning out. I think you are spot on to say that the only way to have a higher ROI this season is to have less bets. My systems which have the largest turnover have struggled to compete with my other more selective systems this season and therefore, I think this backs up what you are saying.

    I take my staking to a slightly more extreme place than you do with me sometimes having 11pts (which is my max stake) on some teams compared to 1pt on many others. Thankfully, the ones I’m backing with the highest stakes are the ones doing the business (same story last season admittedly) and therefore, that is simply why I’m having a good season personally. If I look at each of my algorithms this season (basically bets on system 6,21,31), then the ROI’s are only 8.7%, 9.4% and -1.2%. Hardly setting the world alight.

    If I look at simply backing every team that appears for level stakes on any algorithm, then it’s an ROI of 6%. Again, not setting the world alight but then again, +6% over a large sample of bets isn’t bad when I compare myself to others.

    A little disappointing but as I say, my way around is to stake more on the better teams and so far, it has saved my season.

    Backing the teams that appear on systems 6-21 to 8-22 (1pt on each so a max of 6pts) has an ROI of 18.3% and this has effectively saved my season to date.

    I take on board your point about the odds being obtainable. I’m staking decent amounts these days on my bets and if it wasn’t for Pinnacle, I’d probably be looking for pseudo accounts as I’d be stuck. I’ve now lost many of my accounts on oddschecker (was inevitable given my ROI and turnover over the last 18 months) and therefore, I’m now placing 90% of my bets through a handful of bookmakers with the rest on Betfair which is very hit and miss.

    There is no right or wrong way to quote odds I guess. If I quoted average odds on odds portal and was compared to some other services by the SBC, then it would be highly unfair, so all I can do is try to quote odds that some people may achieve. I know it’s unlikely anyone can match my P&L figures but then again, when you compare my odds to some others that are quoted, I suspect they are more achievable than most.

    Good luck for the second half of the season.

    Graeme

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  2. Hi Graeme and thanks for the reply.

    Not a knock at your blog at all - you'll understand why I haven't named anyone in there, but just take my word for it! The work you put in is quite apparent, and very few probably understand how much goes on behind the scenes.

    6% ROI widely available is excellent in my opinion in this day and age. The only qualifier being if 25-33% of bets are producing all the profit (which at 18-19% they might well be!), which sort of makes redundant all that extra time (and strain on betting accounts etc as you allude to) placing the bets, generating the bets, recording the bets, checking the results, getting upset about last minute goals....:)

    I don't know about no right or wrong way to quote odds - but its something that I have said my piece on, and something that I accept people will have differing views on. Honestly, the SBC headline rates are only for show anyway, I think most would agree - unless heavily into bearding, for relatively small stakes, and constantly at the computer, very very few people get the quoted odds on a lot of the services out there (again, not knocking you). But realistically, 100+ subscribers will always put pressure on it. I hate quoting at early pinnacle lines, because one bet and the line is moved (on the wrong account, its moved quite a long way) - but if your goal is to be compared to the others out there, I totally understand your point of view. Mine isn't really to be compared to anyone else - I stand alone, but I know myself I have nothing to prove - its just a hobby but its no fun for me if followers are not cashing in.

    I can tell you from others that I talk to - your odds are indeed more achievable than at least three other services out there. Of course, beat them all into a cocked hat this season, and I am sure that will change!

    All the best and I hope you get a few passable months post xmas and its not a repeat of 2011 early months!

    Adam

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  3. Yeah, I take on board your point about a small number of bets Adam ultimately being responsible for the majority of my profits. I could probably cut my number of bets I have personally by around 1/4 (gulp!) and still achieve the same £ profit. Ultimately though, it would involve much bigger stakes on a small number of bets and for me personally, it isn’t the way I like to play. I like the idea of playing higher stakes on some bets and even though the lower staked bets don’t do much apart from drag down the ROI, it is a safety net for me (even though it is probably not a good one!)

    I don’t like to make too big a deal of it at the moment (happy to just continue under the radar a bit longer or at least, not prostitute my systems just yet!) but I suspect the thing that separates what I’m doing from others is probably the ROC that can be achieved. Some of my systems (6-21 thru to 8-22 again being the prime example) don’t need very big banks based on what I know about them to date and over the last season and a bit, they’ve done very well in terms of ROC. ROI is the measure that everyone is obsessed with (I quote it enough on my blog to be fair!) but in a way, ROC is actually the one that is more important. I’ve been much more aggressive this season with my own betting banks and so far, it has really paid dividends.

    Of course, the problem with ROC is that as soon as you try to measure different services, it leads to people understating suggested betting banks and then you have lots of people under equipped to cope with any inevitable losing runs that appear.

    I was fortunate (or is that unfortunate?) to hit a nightmare couple of months last season but it also helped shaped my betting banks for this season as the betting banks for this season were at least based on live data. I’m pretty confident that even if a bad spell hits, I’m pretty well equipped to cope with it. Not sure I was as confident when it happened in September but I figured then it was OK as it was only as bad as what happened in April!

    As regards the odds, I guess all I’d say is that I don’t mind if people knock 5% off my returns to get a more realistic return if that’s the consensus. As long as 5% is knocked off all the others too, I’ll be OK! ;)

    Yeah, my biggest concern now is this post Christmas spell. Last year, it all went pear shaped after Boxing Day and if I’m honest, December has been a bit of a struggle for me so far. I’d happily settle for a bit of consolidation and the ROI to slow a little during a break-even period but if there is one thing I’ve learnt over the last season and a half, it’s that my systems don’t do break-even spells! :( It’s either all or nothing…..

    Good luck.

    Graeme

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  4. > Yeah, I take on board your point about a small number of bets Adam ultimately being responsible for the majority of my profits. I could probably cut my number of bets I have personally by around 1/4 (gulp!) and still achieve the same £ profit. Ultimately though, it would involve much bigger stakes on a small number of bets and for me personally, it isn’t the way I like to play.

    I'm not sure we are on the same page here Graeme. I'm suggesting 60-75% of your (and my) and a lot of model bets are providing little more than breakeven. Thus cutting them out altogether leaving 25-40% behind, at the same stakes, provides the same level of profits that are currently being achieved. There's no direct causative need to increase stakes on these bets.

    I agree with your thoughts on ROC vs ROI. My best returns have come from low ROI methods that have been available in massive volumes over the years. My current best earner is something with a tiny advantage, but many thousands of iterations per day are possible. ROI for show, ROC for the pros is how I usually like to put it! ROI is simply the headline grabbing rate, and used to provide easy comparison to stocks, property, bank interest and any other forms of investment (IMO).

    Your thoughts on ROC and bank sizes have already been proven to be true this season, from what I read on other blogs regarding other football services moving their bank sizes/changing the goalposts (please pardon the pun).

    I give major credit to one of the big services who proofs at prices available 30 mins after time of release. This could be bettered, because often the only prices left at 30 mins after release times are at interwetten, or other lowly-rated/sham/non-laying sportsbooks. But still, its a huge concession to make.

    Consolidation and steady returns? Now wouldn't that be nice!

    ATB for 2012

    Adam

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  5. Hi Adam.

    There was no misunderstanding mate, just my badly written English! I noticed it soon after I posted. What I was getting at was the % stake on each bet would increase, not the stake amount as I said. Hence, I’d maybe only have 5 bets instead of 20 bets but overall, each bet would carry a higher % of my betting that day. i.e. 20% instead of 5% on each bet.

    Rightly or wrongly (I think possibly wrongly considering I’m giving the bets out!) I don’t follow around 50% of the bets I post myself. I saw last season that they weren’t exactly adding anything to my betting portfolio and therefore, that’s why I steered everyone away from the single systems and towards the combined systems. If I just dropped the single systems (6,7,8,21,22) and just posted the combined systems (6-21 thru to 8-22), it would make my ROI seem much better overall but a few people I know follow use these single systems to build their own combined systems or follow Home or Away bets on these systems, so I’m happy to keep them going.

    The SBC picked up on the combined systems last season and only really proof them (they see them all though but only report on the combined systems) and I think that’s a fair indication of what I do. If people want to use the other systems themselves and try to create something better than just the combined systems, then good on them but I’m happy to just follow these in a portfolio.

    I’m desperate to try to find another set of systems to follow and I thought my newer systems this season would be the ones but after an OK start, they’ve started to struggle along with all the other ratings systems this season. Disappointing really considering the work that has gone into them over last summer and I can’t see too many of these new systems being added to my portfolio of systems next season. I may well have stumbled across the best two algorithms already and trying to beat them may be unobtainable I suspect.

    Anyway, we’ll see what happens in the second half of the season!

    Graeme

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