Posts
A nothing day really on monday, some winners some losers, optimised stakes staying in the 12% bracket.
Level stakes at 3%. Expecting some convergence of that at some point in the near future.
Project will be slow although not non-existent throughout the world cup.
One tiny bet gets past the filters today that will make no difference one way or another - so next update will be in a week's time when back from sin city.
Good luck all.
Tuesday 25 May 2010
Monday 24 May 2010
Monday
Well, vegas in a couple of days. Very excited now.
Quite a few bets on a monday. You often get a bit of a feel for something, and today's look like decent enough efforts. hopefully more progress will be made and we can move a day nearer to actually getting some solid selections out of this project!
Stay lucky.
Quite a few bets on a monday. You often get a bit of a feel for something, and today's look like decent enough efforts. hopefully more progress will be made and we can move a day nearer to actually getting some solid selections out of this project!
Stay lucky.
Sunday 23 May 2010
Sunday
Saturday's results were very pleasing for the test. Back to 11% yield now for optimized stakes. Things are progressing nicely on that front.
Not even tempted to include today's serie B games in the project though - took one look at the prices and just laughed. The favour system is alive and well in italy, that's all I can say! Also deleted the hungarian games since its the last matchday and the test was producing some whacking great bets in dead rubber situations/where the other team desperately needs to win.
That leaves behind only 2 filtered bets, but there's limited point in including things in the test that I wouldn't be betting on in real life, I think.
Just drags the test period out a little longer though!
Stay lucky
Not even tempted to include today's serie B games in the project though - took one look at the prices and just laughed. The favour system is alive and well in italy, that's all I can say! Also deleted the hungarian games since its the last matchday and the test was producing some whacking great bets in dead rubber situations/where the other team desperately needs to win.
That leaves behind only 2 filtered bets, but there's limited point in including things in the test that I wouldn't be betting on in real life, I think.
Just drags the test period out a little longer though!
Stay lucky
Saturday 22 May 2010
Saturday
So, after 3 bets in about 4 days, it looks like a much more exciting day for the beta tests today. 8 bets all in all. There was a bet yesterday that won and took the project at optimised stakes back into a small profit, but with the strange end of season results being included I think that's very positive.
Let's see how today goes! There's 4 bets in Romania who are on their last game of the season I think, so again, probably duff bets that would inevitably be ignored. Don't want to get too bogged down in being too subjective at this stage though.
Let's see how today goes! There's 4 bets in Romania who are on their last game of the season I think, so again, probably duff bets that would inevitably be ignored. Don't want to get too bogged down in being too subjective at this stage though.
Friday 21 May 2010
More beta
Only one bet in the last couple of days, a small loser.
So the project is still at a negative stage at the moment.
One bet only for tonight's games. Slow at the moment, although an ideal time to start this project, a poor time for actually collecting data!
Here's hoping patience will be a virtue.
So the project is still at a negative stage at the moment.
One bet only for tonight's games. Slow at the moment, although an ideal time to start this project, a poor time for actually collecting data!
Here's hoping patience will be a virtue.
Tuesday 18 May 2010
Tuesday
1 bet yesterday and 1 loser takes beta into an overall loss position. However as stated before I'm confident - including the end of season matches would not be prudent.
I'm near as dammit certain that future seasons will see me leave the first bets until both teams involved have played 4 home and 4 away fixtures, and start to wind down activity when both teams are within the last 4 games of a campaign - just for a safety buffer.
There will still be the odd torquay, I have no doubt.
No bets on beta today so its still the waiting game, its very quiet worldwide this midweek, so no update tomorrow.
I'm near as dammit certain that future seasons will see me leave the first bets until both teams involved have played 4 home and 4 away fixtures, and start to wind down activity when both teams are within the last 4 games of a campaign - just for a safety buffer.
There will still be the odd torquay, I have no doubt.
No bets on beta today so its still the waiting game, its very quiet worldwide this midweek, so no update tomorrow.
Monday 17 May 2010
Monday beta update
A word about alpha - its progressing nicely, mostly thanks to third party efforts I must say - the guy i am working with on it is ruthlessly efficient.
Beta got pretty slammed yesterday (I am not surprised) - its down to italy and spain's last games, the odds were ridiculous - because there are so many external factors, financial incentives, the "favour" system in italy - in real life none of those bets would have been placed. However for the testing period I'm keeping them in.
The optimized stakes are still in front despite betting big on some of the non-triers. I'm hopeful for profit after 200 bets still.
Stay lucky
Beta got pretty slammed yesterday (I am not surprised) - its down to italy and spain's last games, the odds were ridiculous - because there are so many external factors, financial incentives, the "favour" system in italy - in real life none of those bets would have been placed. However for the testing period I'm keeping them in.
The optimized stakes are still in front despite betting big on some of the non-triers. I'm hopeful for profit after 200 bets still.
Stay lucky
Sunday 16 May 2010
Sunday beta update
Now the sample size is 24 bets (filtered) and 45 bets in total without the filters.
Optimized stakes are yielding 23.18% (and importantly this is at prices that I have deemed achieveable, with no effort in analysing trends, trading, etc) from the entire 45 bet sample.
Level stakes are yielding 4.4% (again, not too worried - a lot of those have been huge underdogs, one of those hitting would still take the yield up to 50%, and a couple have managed a draw).
Once filtered the optimized stakes have yielded 20.59% so far, and level 12.2%. Again, its only 24 bets, but still it looks promising at this stage.
shouldn't take too long to get a sample of 200 together. Its only 10 days now till I'm nipping over to Vegas for a week though, so once the dust has settled from that, I hope some of the bets will be appearing on the blog - in fact the sample size of 200 should be finished just in time for the world cup!
Keep tuned and stay lucky!
Optimized stakes are yielding 23.18% (and importantly this is at prices that I have deemed achieveable, with no effort in analysing trends, trading, etc) from the entire 45 bet sample.
Level stakes are yielding 4.4% (again, not too worried - a lot of those have been huge underdogs, one of those hitting would still take the yield up to 50%, and a couple have managed a draw).
Once filtered the optimized stakes have yielded 20.59% so far, and level 12.2%. Again, its only 24 bets, but still it looks promising at this stage.
shouldn't take too long to get a sample of 200 together. Its only 10 days now till I'm nipping over to Vegas for a week though, so once the dust has settled from that, I hope some of the bets will be appearing on the blog - in fact the sample size of 200 should be finished just in time for the world cup!
Keep tuned and stay lucky!
Saturday 15 May 2010
Saturday
And time to breathe even, let alone make a decent post on the blog!
Project alpha which has been undertaken this week is going very nicely - looking at when to place bets, and in more detail about how and why prices move. Goes without saying that if you can beat the closing lines at oddsportal (which I was doing with regularity) you have a very good chance of beating the game even if your picks aren't that great (which I hope mine are of course!)
Project beta, interpolating data about minor leagues around the world and combining some ratings to find opportunities around the world all around the year, be it in japanese or hungarian leagues (!) or some even more bizarre than that, is only 2 days in (and quite labour intensive at the moment, sadly, although that's something that could be worked with).
With optimized stakes (or something like that anyway, currently using 1/10th kelly since it seems to fit the profile reasonably well, personally i hate getting bogged down with staking), the overall picture is losing 7% ROI (betting on a high proportion of games). At the mo I haven't filtered any out (apart from a couple of italian games where the draw is 1/2, 4/6, prices like that) for being at the end of the season, as I would do normally. And its only been 2 days! However during my testing and sewing together phase I noticed that the model is overkeen to oppose very short priced teams, and I find this to be a common problem with fairly simplistic models.
By this I mean that its very rare that you see many people (who use modelling) offer up Chelsea as a value bet, but that's not to say they can't be (i've been confident each time they've been highlighted on the blog, and I think they've won every time from memory). It's more "fashionable" to be taking such teams on, and away from home I'd support that on a fairly regular basis - but at home you can see by looking at the markets for the last few years that things are evolving. It used to be the case that a standard home handicap for Man U was 1.5 asian goals, now its more like 2 or even 2.25 against the lesser teams. I actually think it takes quite a bit of courage to back the shorter priced teams, since apart from anything else, lumping on short prices willy nilly is the best way to do your coconuts!
So I decided to filter out any games where the underdog is more than a 0.75 goal asian handicap underdog (their price is over 2.00 + 0.75 AH). This keeps the no-hoper bets out. You can't gain much from backing some of these teams at 27.6 and prices like that - until you have 10000 games worth of data (IMO). You can draw much more solid conclusions from a more compact dataset of prices from 1.4 to 6.00 I would say (arbitrary values). Also however if the model DOES highlight a short one as a good price, you should probably listen, since its almost inevitably good value.
From that filter I was only left with 9 bets in the last 2 days, yielding 19.77%. Tiny sample and very early days - but what I did find encouraging is that some of the bets were subject of severe market support (which is normally a very good indicator that you are on the right side of the bet, in my experience). At level stakes the yield was down to 2.44% which might show that the optimized stakes are working (although over 9 bets, there's just no point drawing any conclusions!).
Overall I'd expect the optimized stakes to make 1-2% difference to long-term yield. If they look like long-term profitable bets, with a 10%+ yield, when I have a sample of over 200 games, I'll start posting them on the blog - with the rider that I fully appreciate some of them will be difficult or nearly impossible to get money matched on, because they will be bizarre leagues and only a handful of bookies will offer the prices (which in itself is quite heartening, since you'd expect the opportunities in such leagues for massive pricing errors to be vastly more prevalent than they are in the premiership/la liga/serie A).
Keep your eyes peeled!
Project alpha which has been undertaken this week is going very nicely - looking at when to place bets, and in more detail about how and why prices move. Goes without saying that if you can beat the closing lines at oddsportal (which I was doing with regularity) you have a very good chance of beating the game even if your picks aren't that great (which I hope mine are of course!)
Project beta, interpolating data about minor leagues around the world and combining some ratings to find opportunities around the world all around the year, be it in japanese or hungarian leagues (!) or some even more bizarre than that, is only 2 days in (and quite labour intensive at the moment, sadly, although that's something that could be worked with).
With optimized stakes (or something like that anyway, currently using 1/10th kelly since it seems to fit the profile reasonably well, personally i hate getting bogged down with staking), the overall picture is losing 7% ROI (betting on a high proportion of games). At the mo I haven't filtered any out (apart from a couple of italian games where the draw is 1/2, 4/6, prices like that) for being at the end of the season, as I would do normally. And its only been 2 days! However during my testing and sewing together phase I noticed that the model is overkeen to oppose very short priced teams, and I find this to be a common problem with fairly simplistic models.
By this I mean that its very rare that you see many people (who use modelling) offer up Chelsea as a value bet, but that's not to say they can't be (i've been confident each time they've been highlighted on the blog, and I think they've won every time from memory). It's more "fashionable" to be taking such teams on, and away from home I'd support that on a fairly regular basis - but at home you can see by looking at the markets for the last few years that things are evolving. It used to be the case that a standard home handicap for Man U was 1.5 asian goals, now its more like 2 or even 2.25 against the lesser teams. I actually think it takes quite a bit of courage to back the shorter priced teams, since apart from anything else, lumping on short prices willy nilly is the best way to do your coconuts!
So I decided to filter out any games where the underdog is more than a 0.75 goal asian handicap underdog (their price is over 2.00 + 0.75 AH). This keeps the no-hoper bets out. You can't gain much from backing some of these teams at 27.6 and prices like that - until you have 10000 games worth of data (IMO). You can draw much more solid conclusions from a more compact dataset of prices from 1.4 to 6.00 I would say (arbitrary values). Also however if the model DOES highlight a short one as a good price, you should probably listen, since its almost inevitably good value.
From that filter I was only left with 9 bets in the last 2 days, yielding 19.77%. Tiny sample and very early days - but what I did find encouraging is that some of the bets were subject of severe market support (which is normally a very good indicator that you are on the right side of the bet, in my experience). At level stakes the yield was down to 2.44% which might show that the optimized stakes are working (although over 9 bets, there's just no point drawing any conclusions!).
Overall I'd expect the optimized stakes to make 1-2% difference to long-term yield. If they look like long-term profitable bets, with a 10%+ yield, when I have a sample of over 200 games, I'll start posting them on the blog - with the rider that I fully appreciate some of them will be difficult or nearly impossible to get money matched on, because they will be bizarre leagues and only a handful of bookies will offer the prices (which in itself is quite heartening, since you'd expect the opportunities in such leagues for massive pricing errors to be vastly more prevalent than they are in the premiership/la liga/serie A).
Keep your eyes peeled!
Thursday 13 May 2010
A Post
Since the end of the english season proper, I've been overhauling things and taking a close look at some things.
I'm looking at something on paper at the moment which might or might not yield some selections (and not at the sort of yield that I've been looking for particularly) - but if they look valuable it would mean a lot more volume on the blog bets, and might be of interest - in which case I would start posting them.
Enjoy your summer!
I'm looking at something on paper at the moment which might or might not yield some selections (and not at the sort of yield that I've been looking for particularly) - but if they look valuable it would mean a lot more volume on the blog bets, and might be of interest - in which case I would start posting them.
Enjoy your summer!
Saturday 1 May 2010
Last Championship fixtures of the season
On looking down the card, every bet my numbers recommend is either a dead rubber, a team playing a team with vastly more motivation than them, or a team with serious problems (e.g. MK dons!).
Therefore I'm exercising caution and discrection today and not betting the selections, apart from one which is standing out. I don't think this team is reading the script and might well be worth following next year in this division at a potentially big price.
That team is Torquay, who qualify as an x2 today. That's the only official bet for the record.
Good luck
Adam
Therefore I'm exercising caution and discrection today and not betting the selections, apart from one which is standing out. I don't think this team is reading the script and might well be worth following next year in this division at a potentially big price.
That team is Torquay, who qualify as an x2 today. That's the only official bet for the record.
Good luck
Adam
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