Posts
Wrexham
Acca:
Accrington
Oldham
Watford
I placed it at canbet just now and they are offering a similar bonus to IAS. IAS you have to have 4 legs though and I don't like anything else enough of the right profile for an acca to chuck it in (although wrexham would be ok if you wanted a decent gamble!)
Canbet add a max of £50 to the acca if it wins, so the optimum play would be that acca to win £200 so that the 25% bonus would be fully realised. I just got 2.04, 2.38, 2.21 which is 10.73, or with the optimal bonus (or a smaller stake than to win 200) would be 13.16, which really is an excellent price for this one which I would make around a 7/1 shot
Acca 0.1 points as usual FTR.
Hoping for a decent april, historically its been a good month. So far this year jan was a real disaster, feb was a clawback month, march started fantastically and went wrong at cheltenham (wonder how many are saying that this year!), and so its been 2 steps forward 1 step back so far. Hopefully I am enough in front now though to make sure the year is profitable even after weddings and other stuff are out of the way!
No x2s in this quiet midweek card.
Monday 29 March 2010
Thursday 25 March 2010
Weekend earlies
May well really struggle to get another post in - if I do it will be 2pm on sat which isn't ideal if you are tracking - so sorry about that.
Usual riders on the early posts - some could become x2s or even be scratched in some circumstances.
Acca first - and a quick note about it:
www.iasbet.com are a decent enough aussie book who used to own canbet. They are doing a 25% bonus to all multis of 4 legs and up with combined odds of 5.0. The bonus is capped at $150 (not sure how that translates) but still, its well worth having since their prices are pretty fair in the first place. Not as good as the asians, but with the 25% that allows some leeway. I did a quick comparison and figured to be much better off placing the following with them (0.1 pt as usual)
York
Notts Co
Wrexham
Kidderminster
Brighton
I like the numbers but I also like the bet, looks a fair shout, I think I got around 14.5 + whatever the bonus works out as, a fair price indeed. 17.875 if you get the full 25% bonus (don't go over the cap). More like a 10/1 shot in my opinion.
Wycombe
Accrington
Wigan
Hereford
Southend
5 doggies to start things off!
Good luck - keep stakes manageable.
Usual riders on the early posts - some could become x2s or even be scratched in some circumstances.
Acca first - and a quick note about it:
www.iasbet.com are a decent enough aussie book who used to own canbet. They are doing a 25% bonus to all multis of 4 legs and up with combined odds of 5.0. The bonus is capped at $150 (not sure how that translates) but still, its well worth having since their prices are pretty fair in the first place. Not as good as the asians, but with the 25% that allows some leeway. I did a quick comparison and figured to be much better off placing the following with them (0.1 pt as usual)
York
Notts Co
Wrexham
Kidderminster
Brighton
I like the numbers but I also like the bet, looks a fair shout, I think I got around 14.5 + whatever the bonus works out as, a fair price indeed. 17.875 if you get the full 25% bonus (don't go over the cap). More like a 10/1 shot in my opinion.
Wycombe
Accrington
Wigan
Hereford
Southend
5 doggies to start things off!
Good luck - keep stakes manageable.
Tuesday 23 March 2010
Midweek picks
Past posted as per request.
Barrow
West Ham
Sunderland x2
Doncaster
peterborough
Southend
Kidderminster
tamworth (above 4/1)
rushden
west brom x2
palace (above 11/2)
Blackburn (6/5 makes it an x2)
Both x2s play tomorrow.
Apologies for past posting - have not looked at scores anyway! Usually try not to.
A few for tomorrow there anyway.
Barrow
West Ham
Sunderland x2
Doncaster
peterborough
Southend
Kidderminster
tamworth (above 4/1)
rushden
west brom x2
palace (above 11/2)
Blackburn (6/5 makes it an x2)
Both x2s play tomorrow.
Apologies for past posting - have not looked at scores anyway! Usually try not to.
A few for tomorrow there anyway.
Saturday 20 March 2010
Weekend Picks
Wigan x 2
West Brom x 2
Portsmouth x 2 (use your judgement. A very tough situation. New manager for Hull - although is he any good - not really IMO. Portsmouth, what are they playing for? This is a numbers bet. I'll bet it but wouldn't blame anyone for not betting it)
Wolves x 2
Bolton x 2
Grays x 2
Sunderland
bristol city (7/2 MIN)
Oldham
Southend (13/8 MIN)
Yeovil
Cheltenham
Forest Green
Hearts (13/8 MIN)
Fulham (5/2 MIN)
A few more bets. If they close below the MIN prices where specified I won't count them on the record (same goes for exeter midweek, closed below the 13/8 specified, so even though it won, it won't go on the record. FTR I did get about 66% of my bet matched above the specified price before the price shifted.)
Hoping Pompey players will want to be in the shop window and many have a world cup to play towards, so I don't think motivation is as big a factor as one might worry about here. Time will tell.
GL if you play.
West Brom x 2
Portsmouth x 2 (use your judgement. A very tough situation. New manager for Hull - although is he any good - not really IMO. Portsmouth, what are they playing for? This is a numbers bet. I'll bet it but wouldn't blame anyone for not betting it)
Wolves x 2
Bolton x 2
Grays x 2
Sunderland
bristol city (7/2 MIN)
Oldham
Southend (13/8 MIN)
Yeovil
Cheltenham
Forest Green
Hearts (13/8 MIN)
Fulham (5/2 MIN)
A few more bets. If they close below the MIN prices where specified I won't count them on the record (same goes for exeter midweek, closed below the 13/8 specified, so even though it won, it won't go on the record. FTR I did get about 66% of my bet matched above the specified price before the price shifted.)
Hoping Pompey players will want to be in the shop window and many have a world cup to play towards, so I don't think motivation is as big a factor as one might worry about here. Time will tell.
GL if you play.
Friday 19 March 2010
Note about banners
Just been accepted on to the ladbrokes affiliate program. I'd like to be transparent about what it means.
Any accounts that are signed up through that link are affiliated with my affiliate account. That means that any losses reward me with cash.
I'm not one for referring people and making money from their losses (hell, if I was i'd be a bookmaker!). I'm sure I won't refer many so I may well not last long on the scheme, but it costs me nothing and essentially, its a freeroll!
Any accounts that are signed up through that link are affiliated with my affiliate account. That means that any losses reward me with cash.
I'm not one for referring people and making money from their losses (hell, if I was i'd be a bookmaker!). I'm sure I won't refer many so I may well not last long on the scheme, but it costs me nothing and essentially, its a freeroll!
Tuesday 16 March 2010
Sunday 14 March 2010
Weekend Roundup
Peterborough +4.98
Tamworth x 2 -2
Plymouth -1
Wrexham x 2 -2
Tranmere -1
Carlisle +1.59
Huddersfield -1
Bradford x 2 +2.14
Dagenham -1
Chelsea +0.25
Tottenham (would become an x2 at 1/2 or better) +.45
Rushden (would be an x2 at 1/2 or better) +.44
Manchester United +.23
Totals 16 pts staked +2.08, 8W 8L
13% Yield, acceptable as stand alone. looking at a few of those that ended in a draw, got to feel a little aggrieved that we didn't get one more underdog home. Still, a pleasing progression.
Tamworth x 2 -2
Plymouth -1
Wrexham x 2 -2
Tranmere -1
Carlisle +1.59
Huddersfield -1
Bradford x 2 +2.14
Dagenham -1
Chelsea +0.25
Tottenham (would become an x2 at 1/2 or better) +.45
Rushden (would be an x2 at 1/2 or better) +.44
Manchester United +.23
Totals 16 pts staked +2.08, 8W 8L
13% Yield, acceptable as stand alone. looking at a few of those that ended in a draw, got to feel a little aggrieved that we didn't get one more underdog home. Still, a pleasing progression.
Friday 12 March 2010
Weekend picks
Full list of picks
Peterborough
Tamworth x 2
Plymouth
Wrexham x 2
Tranmere
Carlisle
Huddersfield
Bradford x 2
Dagenham
Chelsea
Tottenham (would become an x2 at 1/2 or better)
Rushden (would be an x2 at 1/2 or better)
Manchester United
Also going for it on the acca front (I haven't placed it yet, I'll do it tomorrow am most likely)
0.1 pt as usual on:
Rushden
Swansea
Wimbledon
Oxford
West Brom
Ipswich
Bradford
Morecambe
Reading
Cambridge
Doncaster
Looking at at least 500/1 there. Wouldn't fancy laying it at that sort of price.
Peterborough
Tamworth x 2
Plymouth
Wrexham x 2
Tranmere
Carlisle
Huddersfield
Bradford x 2
Dagenham
Chelsea
Tottenham (would become an x2 at 1/2 or better)
Rushden (would be an x2 at 1/2 or better)
Manchester United
Also going for it on the acca front (I haven't placed it yet, I'll do it tomorrow am most likely)
0.1 pt as usual on:
Rushden
Swansea
Wimbledon
Oxford
West Brom
Ipswich
Bradford
Morecambe
Reading
Cambridge
Doncaster
Looking at at least 500/1 there. Wouldn't fancy laying it at that sort of price.
Wednesday 10 March 2010
Midweek Roundup
Realised that the s/s I am doing for closing lines to compare my bets to the closers is not just the blog bets, but also my other bets as well. So I haven't quite managed this on the bets put on the blog, but the s/s is now showing me beating the closer by 8.3 points. Given that I bet a lot of underdogs that's definitely to be taken with a pinch of salt, but still, its firmly on the right side and I am very pleased with it.
Portsmouth x 2 -2
Peterborough +2.43
Salisbury +5.02
Stevenage +.34
Acca +1.365
+7.155 points on the night. Portsmouth lets down the x2s for the second time. That was a tough game to call in the circumstances, but that's how it goes. Could easily have talked myself out of a bet on pompey, could easily have talked myself back into it!
Had a very decent night with some other underdogs that I didn't post up winning as well.
Puts me back into the black to a decent level for the year, let's hope I can stay there!
I'll try to post a few weekend picks sometime tomorrow but there won't be any x2s until the wee hours of saturday AM.
Portsmouth x 2 -2
Peterborough +2.43
Salisbury +5.02
Stevenage +.34
Acca +1.365
+7.155 points on the night. Portsmouth lets down the x2s for the second time. That was a tough game to call in the circumstances, but that's how it goes. Could easily have talked myself out of a bet on pompey, could easily have talked myself back into it!
Had a very decent night with some other underdogs that I didn't post up winning as well.
Puts me back into the black to a decent level for the year, let's hope I can stay there!
I'll try to post a few weekend picks sometime tomorrow but there won't be any x2s until the wee hours of saturday AM.
Monday 8 March 2010
Midweek Picks
Portsmouth x 2
Peterborough
Salisbury
Slim pickings from a slim card. Pompey in would generate a profit anyway on its own. Salisbuty are a real headscratcher of a price, I've got a fair bit on over 6/1. They aren't great and york are a decent team but 6s seems silly to me.
Good luck if you play, don't risk anything that would make any difference to you!
Peterborough
Salisbury
Slim pickings from a slim card. Pompey in would generate a profit anyway on its own. Salisbuty are a real headscratcher of a price, I've got a fair bit on over 6/1. They aren't great and york are a decent team but 6s seems silly to me.
Good luck if you play, don't risk anything that would make any difference to you!
Sunday 7 March 2010
Weekend Roundup
Well, just filled in the closing lines s/s I am keeping, to see if I can beat the closer.
Since the blog started I've beaten the closing lines by a TOTAL of almost 4 whole points. Of course, the strike rate of the selections is such that I haven't benefitted by 4 whole points, that would only be if every selection won. Nevertheless it is encouraging and a little better than I expected.
Results/closers for the blog picks:
Bolton x 2 5.4 W
Swindon 1.72 L
Arsenal 1.16 W
Everton 1.42 W
Leeds x 2 1.47 L
Hibernian x 2 1.84 W
Rangers 1.23 W
Stevenage x 2 1.52 W
Crystal Palace 2.67 W
Peterborough 2.8 L
Plymouth 2.57 L
Sheff Wed 3.22 W
Bournemouth 2 W
Cheltenham 3.39 L
Bradford 3.7 W
Salisbury x 2 4.84 L
St Johnstone 2.46 L
0.1 pt acca was down also
22 picks (not counting acca as a pick for the records, but including the 0.1 pt loss in the total P and L).13 winners. 10.82 points of profit.
Move to 32W 34L 13.27 points of profit.
Circa 20% Yield thus far which is running below the seasonal average, but still outstanding, and I'd take that for the rest of the season for sure!
Midweek post late monday or tues AM.
Since the blog started I've beaten the closing lines by a TOTAL of almost 4 whole points. Of course, the strike rate of the selections is such that I haven't benefitted by 4 whole points, that would only be if every selection won. Nevertheless it is encouraging and a little better than I expected.
Results/closers for the blog picks:
Bolton x 2 5.4 W
Swindon 1.72 L
Arsenal 1.16 W
Everton 1.42 W
Leeds x 2 1.47 L
Hibernian x 2 1.84 W
Rangers 1.23 W
Stevenage x 2 1.52 W
Crystal Palace 2.67 W
Peterborough 2.8 L
Plymouth 2.57 L
Sheff Wed 3.22 W
Bournemouth 2 W
Cheltenham 3.39 L
Bradford 3.7 W
Salisbury x 2 4.84 L
St Johnstone 2.46 L
0.1 pt acca was down also
22 picks (not counting acca as a pick for the records, but including the 0.1 pt loss in the total P and L).13 winners. 10.82 points of profit.
Move to 32W 34L 13.27 points of profit.
Circa 20% Yield thus far which is running below the seasonal average, but still outstanding, and I'd take that for the rest of the season for sure!
Midweek post late monday or tues AM.
Friday 5 March 2010
Weekend post
Ok, the figures are all in the mixer and have churned out what looks like an interesting set of picks. There's definitely some big value to be had out there, but we found out last week that you can't eat value, so let's hope it converts into some pound notes tomorrow.
Bolton x 2
Swindon
Arsenal
Everton
Leeds x 2
Hibernian x 2
Rangers
Stevenage x 2
Crystal Palace
Peterborough
Plymouth
Sheff Wed
Bournemouth
Cheltenham
Bradford
Salisbury x 2 - a note about this one. They were very close to being a bet in the week (on pure figures they were, and they went on a HEAVY drift due to injury problems. In the end it was deemed a no bet by me on extreme team news grounds. They barely had a fit back 4. Found out after the game they have signed a southampton central defender on loan (must assume he's half decent) and also have one more defender back for this one. I don't think the injuries have been priced here (especially as mansfield also have 3 players out and one more doubtful - so for me it makes the grade at 4/1 for an x2. FTR in the week they drew 2-2 unable to hold on to the lead, so it was a bet saved, but they went off odds against DNB on the asians, which I felt was probably value in the circumstances).
St Johnstone.
And the 0.1 pt acca for tomorrow:
Leeds
Stevenage
MK Dons
Bournemouth
Dundee United
Hibernian
Wrexham
Hartlepool
should be looking to get 100/1+ there - and if that isn't value I don't know what is.
Good luck if you follow, don't bet money you are emotionally attached to!
Bolton x 2
Swindon
Arsenal
Everton
Leeds x 2
Hibernian x 2
Rangers
Stevenage x 2
Crystal Palace
Peterborough
Plymouth
Sheff Wed
Bournemouth
Cheltenham
Bradford
Salisbury x 2 - a note about this one. They were very close to being a bet in the week (on pure figures they were, and they went on a HEAVY drift due to injury problems. In the end it was deemed a no bet by me on extreme team news grounds. They barely had a fit back 4. Found out after the game they have signed a southampton central defender on loan (must assume he's half decent) and also have one more defender back for this one. I don't think the injuries have been priced here (especially as mansfield also have 3 players out and one more doubtful - so for me it makes the grade at 4/1 for an x2. FTR in the week they drew 2-2 unable to hold on to the lead, so it was a bet saved, but they went off odds against DNB on the asians, which I felt was probably value in the circumstances).
St Johnstone.
And the 0.1 pt acca for tomorrow:
Leeds
Stevenage
MK Dons
Bournemouth
Dundee United
Hibernian
Wrexham
Hartlepool
should be looking to get 100/1+ there - and if that isn't value I don't know what is.
Good luck if you follow, don't bet money you are emotionally attached to!
Monday 1 March 2010
Midweek
Small card.
Stockport x 2
Ebbsfleet
With a rider to ebbsfleet being that I would want around the 5/1 mark. Would not back below 9/2 for sure on that one.
Can stockport oblige away again? Seems unlikely, but you never know.
Stockport x 2
Ebbsfleet
With a rider to ebbsfleet being that I would want around the 5/1 mark. Would not back below 9/2 for sure on that one.
Can stockport oblige away again? Seems unlikely, but you never know.
Weekend Roundup
Wigan -1
Scunthorpe -1
QPR x 2 -2
Sheff Wed -1
Watford -1
hartlepool -1
Bradford x 2 +1.1
Dag & Red x 2 +1.54
Rushden x 2 -2
Tottenham x 2 +1.86
Chelsea -1
West Brom +0.56
York -1
Acca - 0.1 pt
6.04 points of last week's profit given back. Betting 6 decent underdogs and hitting none of them pretty much accounts for that, last weekend we hit 2 decent dogs. Hoping to average about 1.5 of those a week, so running a little below that at the moment.
1/2 point of profit to those just betting the X2s.
Clear the decks for the midweek.
As an aside, went out yesterday and none of my golfers had a chance. Then got home around half ten and saw that Yang had traded at 1.70 (was hugely green on him) but was out to 95. Got to hit one soon, surely!
Back into the red overall for the year. 2 months in. Business did well last month with some good results in the last week, but got to hope the next upswing can be sustained, rather than just given back the next weekend!
Scunthorpe -1
QPR x 2 -2
Sheff Wed -1
Watford -1
hartlepool -1
Bradford x 2 +1.1
Dag & Red x 2 +1.54
Rushden x 2 -2
Tottenham x 2 +1.86
Chelsea -1
West Brom +0.56
York -1
Acca - 0.1 pt
6.04 points of last week's profit given back. Betting 6 decent underdogs and hitting none of them pretty much accounts for that, last weekend we hit 2 decent dogs. Hoping to average about 1.5 of those a week, so running a little below that at the moment.
1/2 point of profit to those just betting the X2s.
Clear the decks for the midweek.
As an aside, went out yesterday and none of my golfers had a chance. Then got home around half ten and saw that Yang had traded at 1.70 (was hugely green on him) but was out to 95. Got to hit one soon, surely!
Back into the red overall for the year. 2 months in. Business did well last month with some good results in the last week, but got to hope the next upswing can be sustained, rather than just given back the next weekend!
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