Tues 28th Dec Mark II

WBA x4
Everton x1.5
Reading x2.5
Barnet x1.5
Swindon x1.5
Fleetwood
Hamilton x1.5
Celtic x1.5
Hearts x2.5
Notts co x1.5
Bradford
Brighton x2
Kilmarnock
Millwall

PRICE SHOPPING IS EVER MORE IMPORTANT TODAY. Some of these have been crushed because of the poor lines that were initially set (due to the short break in the last 2 days football and a number of other soft factors outside of my control or ratings) but all are now available at or above the prices I have them in at. Best price is always a must but today its a must x 4

WBA for example I have them in at 4/6 here, they were 11/10 and are now 10/11 so its still a bet

Barnet I had 4/6 they were 6/5 but now 10/11. Still value according to me.

Just gives you a little idea of the underlying - there's value left on the table, just not as much as was around early yesterday sadly. Fleetwood and reading are not so strong in the market - the others are pretty strong.

Good luck if you play

28th Early kickoff

Newport is the first selection of the day

More later

Boxing day second helpings

reading
Leicester x1.5
Stoke x 1.5
Newcastle
Fulham x1.5
Gillingham

Good luck!

Boxing day slice 1

For the early kickoff:

Fulham x 1.5

Back with more later.

Xmas Picks

At least these won't be called off:

Mince pies x3.5
Turkey x2
Sprouts
Too much alcohol x4
Disapproving look from partner x1.5
Asleep during Queen's speech x2
Enduring Xmas edition of soap operas x3
Sneaky check of unmatched bets x4
Argument with partner
Hefty snoring x5


Merry xmas all.

22 Dec Midweek

Lens
Arles
Brest @ 7/2 or better (4.5 betfair as I type this).

Good luck if you play

Le Midweek

There's some action to be had on the french games tonight. Look out for a post in mid-afternoon/early evening.

What's left of Weekend Football

Luton x2 (12 midday apparently!)
Sunderland x3 (12:45)
Millwall x3.5
Kilmarnock x2.5
Newcastle x2.5
QPR x1.5
Catania x2
Santander x1.5
Dortmund x1.5
Hoffenheim x1.5
West Brom x2.5
Marseille
Stuttgart
Leicester (6/4 MIN!)
Lorient
Vitesse
Espanyol (yes, really) - you might prefer to LAY barcelona - I've split my stake, half on espanyol, half laying barca.
Everton


Good luck if you play

Adam

Another snowy weekend......

Picks at about 11am.

Just going to see which matches survive the conditions before posting anything.

15 Dec

A small slice of midweek action:

Excelsior (this game has been a bet before, but postponed. 6 minutes have been played and the score is 0-0, the other 84 mins + extras will be played tonight)

Despite the 6 mins already played, I think the prices for tonight's game are totally wrong, and as such its a 1 pt bet.

Good luck if you play!

Sat 11 Dec

kaiserslautern x 1.5
mainz
nancy
hercules
notts co x 1.5
bradford x 1.5
hearts
orient x2
udinese x2
dortmund x1.5
bolton x3.5
tottenham
west brom
stoke x2
walsall x1.5
southampton x2
cheltenham
burnley

Good luck

Bet for tonight

Rochdale away at Peterborough.

Tomorrow's post at usual time.

Cheers

First weekend of December

And let's hope the weather picks up a little! UK lower leagues decimated.

Sunderland
Millwall x 2.5
Coventry x 1.5
Getafe
Villarreal
Nancy
Fiorentina
Wigan x 2.5
Liverpool x1.5
Bournemouth x2
Swansea

Good luck all!

Midweek end of miserable November

Well, hoping things will pick up into december, starting with the weather.

There were a couple of conference selections tonight but the weather has put paid to them.

Check back for weekend action.

27 Nov

Level stakes at the moment are smacking the return on the advised staking. For the season I am going to stick with the advised stakes - in the past they have done me proud, and IMO its variance not anything else at work. Oldham x 3.5, 3-0 up.....say no more.

Santander x1.5
Hearts
Nancy x1.5
Cambridge x2.5
Fulham x1.5
Spurs x3
QPR x1.5
Inter x1.5
Bolton x2
Everton x1.5
Bari
Leicester x1.5
Rushden x1.5
Kilmarnock x2.5
Hayes


Good luck all if you play.

Thanks

Big thanks to btblade for updating the records for us. Way below expected yield, hopefully means a sharp upswing is just around the corner!

Cheers

Midweek L1/L2

Oldham x3.5
Oxford x2
hartlepool x2.5
Bristol Rovers x2
Huddersfield
Yeovil x2
Walsall x2
York x1.5



THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT RISK OF EITHER A VERY GOOD OR A VERY BAD NIGHT TONIGHT. You should be aware - if you follow - that that is the case. If in doubt - stick to 1 point on all selections. At some point I will investigate the one point per selection method versus the advised stakes.

Good luck if you do play. Bristol Rovers and Walsall, in my opinion, might drift a little, esp bristol rovers.

Tue 23 Nov

Blog post at 6pm tonight. A lot of price movement and I think some of these will come back a little, and also still trying to get on myself!

20 Nov

Busy!

Nurnberg
West brom x 2.5
motherwell
Arsenal x 2.5 (sorry M)
Derby x1.5
notts co x1.5
brighton x3
celtic x1.5
newcastle x1.5
leicester x2
ipswich x1.5
napoli x1.5
deportivo
espanyol x1.5
villarreal
blackburn
wimbledon x1.5
rushden x1.5
newport x1.5
hayes x2
luton x1.5
gateshead
crawley x1.5
torquay
hamilton
southampton x3
blackpool x2
hartlepool x2
eastbourne x1.5
yeovil x2.5



A lot of favs and some live underdogs I hope. Looks like a nice balance although appreciate it is a lot of bets - just the way the fixtures have fallen.

Too many for me to pick and choose an acca today. good luck if you play

Sat 13 Nov

newcastle x3
wigan x2.5
reading x1.5
kilmarnock x2
brest x4
lille
sociedad
napoli
Inverness
Motherwell x1.5
hearts x1.5
spurs x2.5
leeds x1.5
orient
stoke
walsall
rochdale
burton
lincoln

10th Nov

Newcastle x 3.5
Kilmarnock
Chievo x 2.5
catania
genoa x 2
napoli
Villa x 1.5
everton x 1.5
wigan x1.5
st johnstone
swansea x1.5
reading

One or two results short last night. Let's hope tonight is a different kettle of fish!

9th nov picks

Sorry for tardiness.

Eastbourne x3 (drifting so maybe wait for the best price)
Spurs x2
Preston
QPR
Tamworth x2
Mansfield
Inverness x1.5

There are picks for tomorrow. I have been away and am just getting reorganised - so will post them tomorrow as some point!

Fingers crossed for a good night.

9th Nov

Picks coming at 6 - will be a new post

6th Nov cup weekend

A quiet league programme due to the FA cup. Fair play to FC united of manchester - but they didn't think long and hard enough about the acronyms that would arise from the name of the club in my opinion: FCUM is just offensive in so many ways!

Todays picks:

Espanyol x 1.5
nurnberg x1.5
frankfurt
osasuna
nancy x 2
Bolton
Fulham x4
Preston
Ipswich
West Brom
Palermo

Good luck if you play, hopefully the euro leagues will be as kind to us as they were last week!

2nd Nov lower leagues

Bury x2
Accrington
Oldham
Huddersfield
Aldershot
Brighton x1.5
Carlisle x1.5

Weekend results update coming later today.

I MAY add to the post. Do people get automatic notification of comments or just an RSS update when a new post is made? I think you can sign up to new comments via RSS if you like. Otherwise instead of adding comments I will only add new posts.

31st Oct additions

Santander (spain 1)
Kilmarnock
sociedad (spain 1)

Good luck if you play

30th Oct

Happy halloween - no time today so picks are:

Man u x2
newcastle x3.5
leicester x1.5
middlesboro x2.5
QPR x2
Orient x2.5
Yeovil x1.5
Accrington x4
Wimbledon x1.5
Hayes x2.5
Luton
Newport x1.5
Rushden x1.5
Nancy (france 1)
Catania (italy 1)
Brest (france 1)
Forest Green

Some extra picks thanks to widening the net, which also increases staking. x4 will be incredibly rare - but there is one.

Sat 23rd Oct

Not so well organized today, wife insisted on going out last night which messes with my friday night schedule!

Everton is a 1 point bet at the moment in the 12:45 kickoff. Rest will follow ASAP - I will edit this post.

Complete list:

Everton
Birmingham x2
Sunderland x2.5
Wigan x2
Burnley
Leyton Orient x1.5
Burton x1.5
Stevenage
Oxford x1.5
Yeovil
MK dons x1.5
Stoke


There may be another update - If it is past 2pm I will leave this as the official record for the day.

Small midweek efforts 19/10/10

Luton
Burnley
Notts Forest

Will also play all three in an acca, 0.1 pts.

Cheers

16th Oct

Leicester x 2.5
Cardiff x 2
Dagenham x 2.5
Grimsby x 1.5
Gillingham x 1.5
Yeovil
Accrington
Wimbledon
Forest Green x 2
Northampton
Cambridge
York

Good luck, no really juicy aways, but gillingham would be nice.

9/10/10

almost a special date, let's make it a special day.

Feeling confident about these picks:

Brighton x 1.5
Yeovil x 2
Leyton Orient x 2
Southampton x 1.5
Walsall
Barnet x 1.5
Burton
Cheltenham x 1.5
Gillingham x 1.5
Stevenage x 1.5
Hayes x 2
Newport x 1.5
Rushden x 2

I don't think you'd do too badly today to wait until 2pm or later to start betting, if you are following, depending on how quick you are. A lot of these teams have seen initial gambles and quite a few of them will bounce back out a bit, in my opinion. It also means you get as close to the reported profit/yield as you can.

Exception to that rule would be stevenage, I'd take that ASAP

Good luck if you follow and don't bet anything you can't afford to lose, ever!

Tonight's picks

To give you a bit more time.....

Mansfield x 1.5
Hayes x 1.5
Eastbourne x 3

Good luck

Adam

5th october

Well, a good weekend.

Let's chase it up with some more good midweek action.

Picks posted at 7pm. I'm posting them late because I think prices will improve and it gives any followers a better chance of getting a good price near the off.

Into October.....

Eastbourne x3
Leicester x2.5
Newcastle
Dagenham x2.5
Rushden
Crawley x1.5
Brentford x2
Southampton x2
Macclesfield x2
Huddersfield x1.5
Aldershot x1.5
Wimbledon x1.5
Cambridge x1.5
Fleetwood


Good luck if you play.

28th sept

mental note - this is the busiest week ever.

Fleetwood if you can get >2.35 (price is coming back, so that's possible)
Cardiff x2
Portsmouth x2
Leyton orient x2.5
Oldham x1.5
Barnet x1.5
scunthorpe x2
qpr x2
burnley
derby
wimbledon x2.5
newport x1.5
crawley x1.5
dagenham

Busy night. Could be profitable. Hope so

Good luck

25 Sept

Hayes
Eastbourne x2
Fleetwood x2
Dagenham
Wrexham x2
Rushden x2

Every dog has his day. Let's hope today is one of them.

Good luck if you do play, don't play with anything you can't afford to lose!

21 Sept

A number of picks today. This won't be the case once the season beds down, i'm sure

Bath x 2
Cambridge x 2
Luton x 1.5
Rushden
Mansfield x 2
Altrincham
Gateshead
Fleetwood x 2

Good luck if you play

Some picks!

Ok, straight into the conference picks now we've got the required data, and also enough for us to start our away big underdogs as well:

Eastbourne x 2

York x 2

Yeovil

Good luck if you play. Remember to manage your bankroll wisely.

August - the waiting game

Blog is not dead! Just lurking and collating things waiting for the season proper to start.

Also working hard on some horse racing rating potential - a major winner let slip to me a few of his secrets a few months ago so I'm all over trying to emulate at least half his ROI on horse racing! From everything I've seen so far, I'm pleasantly surprised at the rareness with which a real non-trier comes up.

Looking forward to mid-september. Crying about not having backed Torquay ante-post, thought I was getting too carried away with them but I really don't think that I was. OOPS!

July

With the WC over, everything is pretty much in shutdown - the source sites that i use for the projects are not spewing anything out at the moment, so we really are at a blog standstill. With upcoming wedding and honeymoon, I'm away until august now anyway, where hopefully we'll see a good start to a new season.

Betting in earnest won't start until the tail end of september to give the new season time to get into the swing of things.

A nice bit of calm before the storm! Hopefully I'll get chance to update long term results this week as well.....

Tuesday

A nothing day really on monday, some winners some losers, optimised stakes staying in the 12% bracket.

Level stakes at 3%. Expecting some convergence of that at some point in the near future.

Project will be slow although not non-existent throughout the world cup.

One tiny bet gets past the filters today that will make no difference one way or another - so next update will be in a week's time when back from sin city.

Good luck all.

Monday

Well, vegas in a couple of days. Very excited now.

Quite a few bets on a monday. You often get a bit of a feel for something, and today's look like decent enough efforts. hopefully more progress will be made and we can move a day nearer to actually getting some solid selections out of this project!

Stay lucky.

Sunday

Saturday's results were very pleasing for the test. Back to 11% yield now for optimized stakes. Things are progressing nicely on that front.

Not even tempted to include today's serie B games in the project though - took one look at the prices and just laughed. The favour system is alive and well in italy, that's all I can say! Also deleted the hungarian games since its the last matchday and the test was producing some whacking great bets in dead rubber situations/where the other team desperately needs to win.

That leaves behind only 2 filtered bets, but there's limited point in including things in the test that I wouldn't be betting on in real life, I think.

Just drags the test period out a little longer though!

Stay lucky

Saturday

So, after 3 bets in about 4 days, it looks like a much more exciting day for the beta tests today. 8 bets all in all. There was a bet yesterday that won and took the project at optimised stakes back into a small profit, but with the strange end of season results being included I think that's very positive.

Let's see how today goes! There's 4 bets in Romania who are on their last game of the season I think, so again, probably duff bets that would inevitably be ignored. Don't want to get too bogged down in being too subjective at this stage though.

More beta

Only one bet in the last couple of days, a small loser.

So the project is still at a negative stage at the moment.

One bet only for tonight's games. Slow at the moment, although an ideal time to start this project, a poor time for actually collecting data!

Here's hoping patience will be a virtue.

Tuesday

1 bet yesterday and 1 loser takes beta into an overall loss position. However as stated before I'm confident - including the end of season matches would not be prudent.

I'm near as dammit certain that future seasons will see me leave the first bets until both teams involved have played 4 home and 4 away fixtures, and start to wind down activity when both teams are within the last 4 games of a campaign - just for a safety buffer.

There will still be the odd torquay, I have no doubt.

No bets on beta today so its still the waiting game, its very quiet worldwide this midweek, so no update tomorrow.

Monday beta update

A word about alpha - its progressing nicely, mostly thanks to third party efforts I must say - the guy i am working with on it is ruthlessly efficient.

Beta got pretty slammed yesterday (I am not surprised) - its down to italy and spain's last games, the odds were ridiculous - because there are so many external factors, financial incentives, the "favour" system in italy - in real life none of those bets would have been placed. However for the testing period I'm keeping them in.

The optimized stakes are still in front despite betting big on some of the non-triers. I'm hopeful for profit after 200 bets still.

Stay lucky

Sunday beta update

Now the sample size is 24 bets (filtered) and 45 bets in total without the filters.

Optimized stakes are yielding 23.18% (and importantly this is at prices that I have deemed achieveable, with no effort in analysing trends, trading, etc) from the entire 45 bet sample.

Level stakes are yielding 4.4% (again, not too worried - a lot of those have been huge underdogs, one of those hitting would still take the yield up to 50%, and a couple have managed a draw).

Once filtered the optimized stakes have yielded 20.59% so far, and level 12.2%. Again, its only 24 bets, but still it looks promising at this stage.

shouldn't take too long to get a sample of 200 together. Its only 10 days now till I'm nipping over to Vegas for a week though, so once the dust has settled from that, I hope some of the bets will be appearing on the blog - in fact the sample size of 200 should be finished just in time for the world cup!

Keep tuned and stay lucky!

Saturday

And time to breathe even, let alone make a decent post on the blog!

Project alpha which has been undertaken this week is going very nicely - looking at when to place bets, and in more detail about how and why prices move. Goes without saying that if you can beat the closing lines at oddsportal (which I was doing with regularity) you have a very good chance of beating the game even if your picks aren't that great (which I hope mine are of course!)

Project beta, interpolating data about minor leagues around the world and combining some ratings to find opportunities around the world all around the year, be it in japanese or hungarian leagues (!) or some even more bizarre than that, is only 2 days in (and quite labour intensive at the moment, sadly, although that's something that could be worked with).

With optimized stakes (or something like that anyway, currently using 1/10th kelly since it seems to fit the profile reasonably well, personally i hate getting bogged down with staking), the overall picture is losing 7% ROI (betting on a high proportion of games). At the mo I haven't filtered any out (apart from a couple of italian games where the draw is 1/2, 4/6, prices like that) for being at the end of the season, as I would do normally. And its only been 2 days! However during my testing and sewing together phase I noticed that the model is overkeen to oppose very short priced teams, and I find this to be a common problem with fairly simplistic models.

By this I mean that its very rare that you see many people (who use modelling) offer up Chelsea as a value bet, but that's not to say they can't be (i've been confident each time they've been highlighted on the blog, and I think they've won every time from memory). It's more "fashionable" to be taking such teams on, and away from home I'd support that on a fairly regular basis - but at home you can see by looking at the markets for the last few years that things are evolving. It used to be the case that a standard home handicap for Man U was 1.5 asian goals, now its more like 2 or even 2.25 against the lesser teams. I actually think it takes quite a bit of courage to back the shorter priced teams, since apart from anything else, lumping on short prices willy nilly is the best way to do your coconuts!

So I decided to filter out any games where the underdog is more than a 0.75 goal asian handicap underdog (their price is over 2.00 + 0.75 AH). This keeps the no-hoper bets out. You can't gain much from backing some of these teams at 27.6 and prices like that - until you have 10000 games worth of data (IMO). You can draw much more solid conclusions from a more compact dataset of prices from 1.4 to 6.00 I would say (arbitrary values). Also however if the model DOES highlight a short one as a good price, you should probably listen, since its almost inevitably good value.

From that filter I was only left with 9 bets in the last 2 days, yielding 19.77%. Tiny sample and very early days - but what I did find encouraging is that some of the bets were subject of severe market support (which is normally a very good indicator that you are on the right side of the bet, in my experience). At level stakes the yield was down to 2.44% which might show that the optimized stakes are working (although over 9 bets, there's just no point drawing any conclusions!).

Overall I'd expect the optimized stakes to make 1-2% difference to long-term yield. If they look like long-term profitable bets, with a 10%+ yield, when I have a sample of over 200 games, I'll start posting them on the blog - with the rider that I fully appreciate some of them will be difficult or nearly impossible to get money matched on, because they will be bizarre leagues and only a handful of bookies will offer the prices (which in itself is quite heartening, since you'd expect the opportunities in such leagues for massive pricing errors to be vastly more prevalent than they are in the premiership/la liga/serie A).

Keep your eyes peeled!

A Post

Since the end of the english season proper, I've been overhauling things and taking a close look at some things.

I'm looking at something on paper at the moment which might or might not yield some selections (and not at the sort of yield that I've been looking for particularly) - but if they look valuable it would mean a lot more volume on the blog bets, and might be of interest - in which case I would start posting them.

Enjoy your summer!

Last Championship fixtures of the season

On looking down the card, every bet my numbers recommend is either a dead rubber, a team playing a team with vastly more motivation than them, or a team with serious problems (e.g. MK dons!).

Therefore I'm exercising caution and discrection today and not betting the selections, apart from one which is standing out. I don't think this team is reading the script and might well be worth following next year in this division at a potentially big price.

That team is Torquay, who qualify as an x2 today. That's the only official bet for the record.

Good luck

Adam

Midweek

No bets - ratings are starting to be very predictable e.g. all the ratings would say back West brom last night, but the obvious motivational questions affecting both teams would be a massive factor which isn't quantified by ratings.

There may be some more bets this season - in league one and two - but i'll be exercising caution.

Weekend

Last conf games this week, and some more multiple qualifiers:

MK Dons x2
Bradford x2
Coventry
Arsenal x3
Doncaster x3
Wigan x2
Sheff Utd
Watford
Darlington
Chelsea
Everton

Acca 0.1 pt:

Arsenal
Doncaster
Chelsea
Everton
Notts Forest
Norwich
Torquay
St Mirren

Good luck if you play!

Midweek

A Slim day

Kidderminster x2

Acca:

Kidderminster
Oxford
Cheltenham

Let's hope we can repair some of the weekend damage.

Weekend Roundup

Watched the highlights of the fulham game last night, hurt a lot when they hit the post!

I did think 0-0 worried me most about the game, 0-0 and 1-0 looked a solid bet for a dutch.

A strange one - a bum weekend for the blog, no doubt, coinciding with one of the best coupon weekends of the season for me, saw me pinch a few quid. The yearly total is rising and Jan/Feb (even march?) worries about a very lean year look to be behind me.

Let's hope the blog can pick up some profit towards the end of the season, since April has been a good month in the past. There's normally some good opportunities.

Sat 17th Apr

Burnley x2
Crewe x2
Watford x2
Stockport x2
Notts County x2
Swansea x2
Fulham x3
QPR
Charlton
Bournemouth
York
Celtic
Rangers
Liverpool

Acca:

Notts County
Rochdale
Swansea
Fulham
Hamilton
Forest Green
Bournemouth
York
Celtic
Rangers
Liverpool

Good luck!

Midweek

Stockport x2
Wycombe
Accrington
Bradford
Crewe
Grimsby
Chelsea
Huddersfield x2
Rochdale
AFC Wimbledon
Luton
York x2
Celtic
Tottenham
Portsmouth x2 (NOT INCLUDED IN OFFICIAL RECORD - NO BET FOR ME!)

Acca:

Chelsea
Huddersfield
Rochdale
Wimbledon
Luton
York
Celtic
Dagenham

Good luck if you play!

Banner Clicks

Please take the time to click the banner and have a look at what ladbrokes have to offer, even if you already have an account with them, the traffic would be appreciated.

Thanks.

Sat 10th April

A reasonably quiet weekend - the filters are working a little against each other (which is not necessarily a bad thing at this time of year). There looks to be some good value to me this week (but then last week, they looked a right bunch of strange selections, and then almost all won!).

Ipswich
Colchester
MK Dons x2 (looks to be on the drift so might be a very juicy price later)
Oldham x2
Hamilton

And acca:

Rushden
Liverpool
Man City
Watford
Hearts
Oldham

Oddsportal showing 26.96 pinn but no parlays on the conference (and there would probably be extra juice)

I just did the saturday teams in an acca at canbet - £17 would be paid at 15.73 because that's the limit that you can stake to take full advantage of the bonus. I'll get the rest elsewhere and bet the other two teams at best price tomorrow. 5dimes currently 13.89 but I think they lower their juice slightly in a while - we will see.

GL if you play

Easter monday

Bit of a rush with the fixture pileup, a lot of numbers to crunch.

Southampton
Luton
Peterborough x2
Hayes
Cheltenham
Burton x2
QPR x2
Swansea x2
Accrington x2

Acca:

Southampton
Luton
Bradford
Oxford
Swansea
York
Huddersfield
Accrington
Reading

0.1 pt acca as usual

GL if you follow.

Easter Saturday

Well, disappointed with Rushden. Good job I don't use kelly staking as it would have been a big bet. Went on a drift pre off, so the market did well there - then again I was also with millwall and traded myself into getting about 1.80 on them for a decent bet - and they also drew, so the market's not always so smart, there was a pile of money for them. Brentford can be tough nuts to crack and I feel they are a little like swindon, unfashionable and underrated.

Onto today's business

Portsmouth come up in the numbers but I won't be backing them. They also won't appear for the record. There's also a decent gamble on blackburn and I can understand why - but this game is really one for the gamblers.
Ipswich x2
Palace 5/1 minimum
Watford
Darlington x2
Falkirk x2
Wrexham (close to x2 - let's hope its NOT a repeat of midweek)
St Mirren
Arsenal (but I might hang around for price improvements, they must be fairly ravaged by injuries and also may rest more players)
Stoke x2

Some raggedy teams on there in the x2s! Overdue a decent price winner though. Good luck if you play and keep stakes manageable.

Let's hope for a good friday!

Rushden x2

Acca:

West Brom
Millwall
Rushden
Doncaster
QPR
Dagenham
Stoke
Ipswich
Cheltenham

0.1 pt.

A little note about the acca if taking advantage of the 25% bonuses at canbet/IAS. Sometimes the accas could be staggered to get a double bonus. So for example, the three games that are today (WBA Millwall and Rushden), IF they had a price of 5.0 or higher (which they don't) would qualify for one bonus - you could then place the rest of the selections with the profits (and the 25% added) later tonight or tomorrow. Not a situation that will arise a lot, but one to think about!

Small Midweek

Wrexham

Acca:

Accrington
Oldham
Watford

I placed it at canbet just now and they are offering a similar bonus to IAS. IAS you have to have 4 legs though and I don't like anything else enough of the right profile for an acca to chuck it in (although wrexham would be ok if you wanted a decent gamble!)

Canbet add a max of £50 to the acca if it wins, so the optimum play would be that acca to win £200 so that the 25% bonus would be fully realised. I just got 2.04, 2.38, 2.21 which is 10.73, or with the optimal bonus (or a smaller stake than to win 200) would be 13.16, which really is an excellent price for this one which I would make around a 7/1 shot

Acca 0.1 points as usual FTR.

Hoping for a decent april, historically its been a good month. So far this year jan was a real disaster, feb was a clawback month, march started fantastically and went wrong at cheltenham (wonder how many are saying that this year!), and so its been 2 steps forward 1 step back so far. Hopefully I am enough in front now though to make sure the year is profitable even after weddings and other stuff are out of the way!

No x2s in this quiet midweek card.

Weekend earlies

May well really struggle to get another post in - if I do it will be 2pm on sat which isn't ideal if you are tracking - so sorry about that.

Usual riders on the early posts - some could become x2s or even be scratched in some circumstances.

Acca first - and a quick note about it:

www.iasbet.com are a decent enough aussie book who used to own canbet. They are doing a 25% bonus to all multis of 4 legs and up with combined odds of 5.0. The bonus is capped at $150 (not sure how that translates) but still, its well worth having since their prices are pretty fair in the first place. Not as good as the asians, but with the 25% that allows some leeway. I did a quick comparison and figured to be much better off placing the following with them (0.1 pt as usual)

York
Notts Co
Wrexham
Kidderminster
Brighton

I like the numbers but I also like the bet, looks a fair shout, I think I got around 14.5 + whatever the bonus works out as, a fair price indeed. 17.875 if you get the full 25% bonus (don't go over the cap). More like a 10/1 shot in my opinion.

Wycombe
Accrington
Wigan
Hereford
Southend

5 doggies to start things off!

Good luck - keep stakes manageable.

Midweek picks

Past posted as per request.

Barrow
West Ham
Sunderland x2
Doncaster
peterborough
Southend
Kidderminster
tamworth (above 4/1)
rushden
west brom x2
palace (above 11/2)
Blackburn (6/5 makes it an x2)

Both x2s play tomorrow.

Apologies for past posting - have not looked at scores anyway! Usually try not to.

A few for tomorrow there anyway.

Weekend Picks

Wigan x 2
West Brom x 2
Portsmouth x 2 (use your judgement. A very tough situation. New manager for Hull - although is he any good - not really IMO. Portsmouth, what are they playing for? This is a numbers bet. I'll bet it but wouldn't blame anyone for not betting it)
Wolves x 2
Bolton x 2
Grays x 2
Sunderland
bristol city (7/2 MIN)
Oldham
Southend (13/8 MIN)
Yeovil
Cheltenham
Forest Green
Hearts (13/8 MIN)
Fulham (5/2 MIN)

A few more bets. If they close below the MIN prices where specified I won't count them on the record (same goes for exeter midweek, closed below the 13/8 specified, so even though it won, it won't go on the record. FTR I did get about 66% of my bet matched above the specified price before the price shifted.)

Hoping Pompey players will want to be in the shop window and many have a world cup to play towards, so I don't think motivation is as big a factor as one might worry about here. Time will tell.

GL if you play.

Note about banners

Just been accepted on to the ladbrokes affiliate program. I'd like to be transparent about what it means.

Any accounts that are signed up through that link are affiliated with my affiliate account. That means that any losses reward me with cash.

I'm not one for referring people and making money from their losses (hell, if I was i'd be a bookmaker!). I'm sure I won't refer many so I may well not last long on the scheme, but it costs me nothing and essentially, its a freeroll!

Midweek

Wigan
Palace
Sheff Wed
Accrington
Kidderminster x2
Exeter (ABOVE 13/8)

Weekend Roundup

Peterborough +4.98
Tamworth x 2 -2
Plymouth -1
Wrexham x 2 -2
Tranmere -1
Carlisle +1.59
Huddersfield -1
Bradford x 2 +2.14
Dagenham -1
Chelsea +0.25
Tottenham (would become an x2 at 1/2 or better) +.45
Rushden (would be an x2 at 1/2 or better) +.44
Manchester United +.23

Totals 16 pts staked +2.08, 8W 8L

13% Yield, acceptable as stand alone. looking at a few of those that ended in a draw, got to feel a little aggrieved that we didn't get one more underdog home. Still, a pleasing progression.

Weekend picks

Full list of picks

Peterborough
Tamworth x 2
Plymouth
Wrexham x 2
Tranmere
Carlisle
Huddersfield
Bradford x 2
Dagenham
Chelsea
Tottenham (would become an x2 at 1/2 or better)
Rushden (would be an x2 at 1/2 or better)
Manchester United




Also going for it on the acca front (I haven't placed it yet, I'll do it tomorrow am most likely)

0.1 pt as usual on:

Rushden
Swansea
Wimbledon
Oxford
West Brom
Ipswich
Bradford
Morecambe
Reading
Cambridge
Doncaster

Looking at at least 500/1 there. Wouldn't fancy laying it at that sort of price.

Midweek Roundup

Realised that the s/s I am doing for closing lines to compare my bets to the closers is not just the blog bets, but also my other bets as well. So I haven't quite managed this on the bets put on the blog, but the s/s is now showing me beating the closer by 8.3 points. Given that I bet a lot of underdogs that's definitely to be taken with a pinch of salt, but still, its firmly on the right side and I am very pleased with it.

Portsmouth x 2 -2
Peterborough +2.43
Salisbury +5.02
Stevenage +.34

Acca +1.365

+7.155 points on the night. Portsmouth lets down the x2s for the second time. That was a tough game to call in the circumstances, but that's how it goes. Could easily have talked myself out of a bet on pompey, could easily have talked myself back into it!

Had a very decent night with some other underdogs that I didn't post up winning as well.

Puts me back into the black to a decent level for the year, let's hope I can stay there!

I'll try to post a few weekend picks sometime tomorrow but there won't be any x2s until the wee hours of saturday AM.

Midweek Picks

Portsmouth x 2
Peterborough
Salisbury

Slim pickings from a slim card. Pompey in would generate a profit anyway on its own. Salisbuty are a real headscratcher of a price, I've got a fair bit on over 6/1. They aren't great and york are a decent team but 6s seems silly to me.

Good luck if you play, don't risk anything that would make any difference to you!

Weekend Roundup

Well, just filled in the closing lines s/s I am keeping, to see if I can beat the closer.

Since the blog started I've beaten the closing lines by a TOTAL of almost 4 whole points. Of course, the strike rate of the selections is such that I haven't benefitted by 4 whole points, that would only be if every selection won. Nevertheless it is encouraging and a little better than I expected.

Results/closers for the blog picks:


Bolton x 2 5.4 W
Swindon 1.72 L
Arsenal 1.16 W
Everton 1.42 W
Leeds x 2 1.47 L
Hibernian x 2 1.84 W
Rangers 1.23 W
Stevenage x 2 1.52 W
Crystal Palace 2.67 W
Peterborough 2.8 L
Plymouth 2.57 L
Sheff Wed 3.22 W
Bournemouth 2 W
Cheltenham 3.39 L
Bradford 3.7 W
Salisbury x 2 4.84 L
St Johnstone 2.46 L

0.1 pt acca was down also

22 picks (not counting acca as a pick for the records, but including the 0.1 pt loss in the total P and L).13 winners. 10.82 points of profit.

Move to 32W 34L 13.27 points of profit.

Circa 20% Yield thus far which is running below the seasonal average, but still outstanding, and I'd take that for the rest of the season for sure!

Midweek post late monday or tues AM.

Weekend post

Ok, the figures are all in the mixer and have churned out what looks like an interesting set of picks. There's definitely some big value to be had out there, but we found out last week that you can't eat value, so let's hope it converts into some pound notes tomorrow.

Bolton x 2
Swindon
Arsenal
Everton
Leeds x 2
Hibernian x 2
Rangers
Stevenage x 2
Crystal Palace
Peterborough
Plymouth
Sheff Wed
Bournemouth
Cheltenham
Bradford
Salisbury x 2 - a note about this one. They were very close to being a bet in the week (on pure figures they were, and they went on a HEAVY drift due to injury problems. In the end it was deemed a no bet by me on extreme team news grounds. They barely had a fit back 4. Found out after the game they have signed a southampton central defender on loan (must assume he's half decent) and also have one more defender back for this one. I don't think the injuries have been priced here (especially as mansfield also have 3 players out and one more doubtful - so for me it makes the grade at 4/1 for an x2. FTR in the week they drew 2-2 unable to hold on to the lead, so it was a bet saved, but they went off odds against DNB on the asians, which I felt was probably value in the circumstances).
St Johnstone.

And the 0.1 pt acca for tomorrow:

Leeds
Stevenage
MK Dons
Bournemouth
Dundee United
Hibernian
Wrexham
Hartlepool

should be looking to get 100/1+ there - and if that isn't value I don't know what is.

Good luck if you follow, don't bet money you are emotionally attached to!

Midweek

Small card.

Stockport x 2
Ebbsfleet

With a rider to ebbsfleet being that I would want around the 5/1 mark. Would not back below 9/2 for sure on that one.

Can stockport oblige away again? Seems unlikely, but you never know.

Weekend Roundup

Wigan -1
Scunthorpe -1
QPR x 2 -2
Sheff Wed -1
Watford -1
hartlepool -1
Bradford x 2 +1.1
Dag & Red x 2 +1.54
Rushden x 2 -2
Tottenham x 2 +1.86
Chelsea -1
West Brom +0.56
York -1

Acca - 0.1 pt

6.04 points of last week's profit given back. Betting 6 decent underdogs and hitting none of them pretty much accounts for that, last weekend we hit 2 decent dogs. Hoping to average about 1.5 of those a week, so running a little below that at the moment.

1/2 point of profit to those just betting the X2s.

Clear the decks for the midweek.

As an aside, went out yesterday and none of my golfers had a chance. Then got home around half ten and saw that Yang had traded at 1.70 (was hugely green on him) but was out to 95. Got to hit one soon, surely!

Back into the red overall for the year. 2 months in. Business did well last month with some good results in the last week, but got to hope the next upswing can be sustained, rather than just given back the next weekend!

Weekend

Sorry for the late post - been a very very busy week from many points of view, not all gambling related (sadly!)

Wigan
Scunthorpe
QPR x 2
Sheff Wed
Watford
hartlepool
Bradford x 2
Dag & Red x 2
Rushden x 2 - beware, starts at midday
Tottenham x 2 (for tomorrow - again, look out on this one. Various team news factors, including how bad is this bug, who is in/out for both teams as they both have problems). For the record, I will bet it (especially since spurs are on the drift)
Chelsea
West Brom
York

When i have a spare 5 mins today I will also put up an accumulator bet for the afternoon. Theoretical edge on these could run into the 3 figures%, but there will be no doubt long long losing runs. Might be one just to follow on paper rather than bet.

Midweek

Doncaster
Yeovil
Crewe
Tamworth
Manchester United

I'd use a bit of discretion on the man u game. Apparently its going to snow (according to forecast) for the majority of the game. This would put me off backing united at what will be a short price.

It remains to be seen how much impact the weather will have on the fixtures. Crewe already moved to tomorrow because of the cold weather - minus 16 overnight in parts of Scotland apparently.

No x2 plays in this midweek.

Good luck if you do play - don't bet money that you can't afford to lose.

Weekend Roundup

Fulham closed at 2.11 and Villa at 1.43 for another two winners. An incredible weekend with a big day on the sunday. Really cleaned up there.

Midweek numbers are being crunched and hopefully there will be a post later tonight with any bets.

Good start to the blog record

Ok - here are the closers I have (not all are from pinn, just best price that was available at the off at a "proper" bookmaker, figures from oddsportal):

Arsenal 1.25
Portsmouth x 2 2.28
West Ham 1.72
Fulham x 2 Sun
Wrexham 2.08
Blackpool 2.35
Palace 2.05 (!)
Peterborough Void
Oldham x 2 5.4
Stockport x 2 4.9
Carlisle 4.52
Tranmere 2.26
AFC Wimbledon 3.9
Newcastle 1.48

So - counting the x2s as 2 bets, I make that 15 points staked today and 9.84 points profit for an overall figure of 16 bets, 8.84 points profit, and a 55.25% Yield.

Obviously, can't continue at that level of performance. But its nice to have a good start.

Add one more for tomorrow, another short one I am afraid - Aston Villa.

Other than that, my golfer went out by the narrowest of margins, leaving me again wishing I hadn't promised not to lay off! But still, there will be one by the end of the year, I hope! Also a crap day on the horses, that undid a good proportion of the good work on the football - but they are volatile markets, i'm sure it will come back in the long run.

Let's hope for a decent night on the US sports.

Prepare for saturday

Well, torquay couldn't get it done. Interesting market on the game, rotherham from 1.60 to 1.83 back to 1.70, torquay into 5.5 then back to 6.6 at the off. Played it well but didn't get the result I wanted.

Some interesting games tomorrow though.

Oldham and stockport are both double qualifiers like torquay was. Fulham to beat the artificially mighty Birmingham City on sunday (and in a bizarre twist of fate I'll be at the game, supporting blues but betting heavily on fulham!) looks like another decent one.

For the record, torquay closed at pinnacle at 6.24. 1 bet, 1 loser so far.

Arsenal
Portsmouth x 2
West Ham
Fulham x 2
Wrexham
Blackpool
Palace
Peterborough
Oldham x 2
Stockport x 2
Carlisle
Tranmere
AFC Wimbledon

Portsmouth another double stake. Yuck.

One of Stockport or Oldham would guarantee a good day I am sure.

Good luck if you do follow - and remember, only follow if you can handle losing as well as winning!

The follow-up

Well, 0-2 in Europa league for me on the main bets, picking up a tiny win on my other bet. Real sod's law sort of day.

Still, did accounts and finances and things are still brighter than I realised. With some tightening of credit lines etc I should be able to weather the same storm I have over the last 6/7 weeks all over again, and it still wouldn't have too much impact (apart from pretty much making sure I won't be in profit for 2010 of course!)

37k green on a golfer in the world matchplay. So tempting to lay some off but I have promised myself that I won't do it. If it comes in, then it certainly stops me worrying for the year!

Spent the whole week working hard on getting a spreadsheet up and running. An idea that I had a while back that I've decided has to be put into play. It is basically filtering some of my better bets, and the results for the season had I been betting them at best gettable prices near the off (found from www.oddsportal.com) would have been:

166.96 profits from 527 units staked (majority of bets staking 2 points, occasional 3 point play, rare 1 unit play, possible (but not yet seen) 4 unit play (which will inevitably lose I'm sure!). ROI of 31.68%.

There's no backfitting been done and the filtering makes total sense. I had no idea what the results would be before I applied the filters, and have done no tweaking since.

I followed it through with 4 different staking methods and weighting the one most important rating in with the entire bunch differently. Interestingly all four methods return between 30 and 33% ROI season so far, but the level staking (x per point, so a 2 point bet you would bet say £20 if you were playing for £10 per unit) is the smoothest when graphed, so the easiest to swallow the downtrends on.

It also points out something I have known for a long time. If you want the big ROIs on football, you need to go after the big priced underdogs at the right time (i.e. when the value is there of course). I'll try to post all the plays on the blog and keep a record if it doesn't prove too time-consuming.

There will be one play for tomorrow - a 2 unit play, torquay at rotherham. I won't put prices up until the lines have closed - i'll get the historical best price from pinnacle from www.oddsportal.com and use that for proofing.

Wouldn't put anyone off taking the 11/2 with coral or tote if they can get on at those fools (especially with coral's 10% cashback - after all, the bet, whilst value, is most likely to lose). Skybet were 6/1 but hitting the 6.6 on betfair has ruined that - I also had 20 quid on on a mate's skybet account we go halves on, I have promised not to blow it with any big stakes! However these warm favourites can go off very short (artificially so) when they are the friday night game. The initial moves on the asian lines suggest Rotherham will drift, but experience tell me that the day of the game market can be a totally different dynamic (and also team news could change things).

From a quick eye on the team news it seems that both teams are a little short of firepower and want a striker. It will be interesting to see if/how that affects the goal line. Under 2.5 a best price in asia right now of 1.88, let's see how it goes.

If you follow - good luck - but don't even consider it unless you can handle losing runs. I'm sure there will be more than one significant one on this journey.

Thurs 18 Feb

Well, 2 horrible wipeout days in the last 6, where you wouldn't believe the string of losers I have been backing. A lot of volatility with this turnover sort of strategy, and once again in a hole for the year on it. Would be nice to see it turn a profit and stay there - I hit a year high on it of +4k and now its decent numbers in the red again.

To be fair though, having had 2 days like that (and another rough one yesterday) in the last 6, I think up can be the only way forwards from here!

I'm also going through a major fine-tuning of my football ratings to try and strip out a "super-confidence system" which should limit the amount of losing days that I have. I'm trying to use a number of ratings in conjunction with each other, with the aim of knocking out the poor value bets, and hopefully coming up with something with a >10% ROI, which is the ultimate aim. I haven't got anything for this season that on its own is showing those sorts of figures (apart from the early signs on my US Sports bets) but hopefully I'll get something up and running before saturday so I can give it a live test (and post the selections on here!)

Stay lucky (or in my case, get lucky in the first place) - although I hope with being on Bayern heavy last night I haven't used up my luck allowance for the month!

Time for a post

Right, looking to get more than one post a week going now.

Its been a tough week. A couple of big bets, one which I very much liked and won, one which I didn't like that lost, but that's the way it goes sometimes. I have looked through the big bets I've had this season, and there's been 67 of them in the prem and la liga. The spanish bets have shown very little edge, which is disappointing as its a league I've had a decent edge on in the past. The prem bets, there are 5 that I have had a strong feeling against. 2 have won and 3 have lost, so nothing conclusive (not that there would ever be anything conclusive in a sample of 5 bets!).

The upturn for the year that i described went up somewhere near 4k, then has settled down again at about 1k down. Its now becoming a fine balance - 6 weeks in it looks like it could be very tough to make any money maintaining this level of turnover (which is no surprise) - so I'll have to replace the turnover somehow (some arbitrage maybe - although that's also very boring and tough these days, although you can still get turnover by going after the tiny arbs I think) if I drop some of the stuff which looks like it has somewhere between a +2 and -2% edge.

Dabbling in the US sports again has started to have some success - thought I had put that to bed a few years ago when I was working 100-110 hours a week, but maybe not. Anything to get in front at the moment! Makes the 10k bet I missed even more painful, since with that under my belt I would be well in front for the year and confident. C'est la vie.

The swings

Well, my project "turnover fund" (which hopefully on the upshot of things will also make money, with a view to it being of interest once the coupons are well and truly all done) has had a very interesting year.

The basis behind it initially was to get turnover going to make sure that I remained safe from the evil betfair premium charge. Its certainly managed that - at the moment we must be looking at an ROI in the 1% level (if that) on a huge turnover.

Its hit a high some time last year of +27k, its then been down as far as in the red, then its been back up again - at the moment it has hit the front for the year 2010 (was 19k down at the worst stage).

The numbers are quite simply frightening. All logic dictates that by diversifying as much as I do in this project I should smooth out volatility, but it seems to be the total opposite! Zaragoza winning just now has put it up to 2.3k positive for this year. If it could make 12k by the end of this year I'd be very pleased - and as an ongoing project I am more confident now that there is profit to be made than I have ever been on the project. It's also been an amazing learning curve.

I'm not sure I've got the stomach for the day when that is the only fruit for me - hopefully it will never come. Despite a shocking start to the year from the coupon point of view, I'm a lot better positioned at close of business tonight than I have been for a few weeks. It would be nice to get some serious numbers for the year under the belt before the wedding, during the world cup - I'm still hopeful, and the markets are so huge and relatively easy to read (or were in 06) so there should be some decent opportunities.

Was 8k green on a golfer today which would have been most welcome, also 9k green on a horse - land one or two of those and the monthly/yearly P and L looks most different.

Time to keep cracking on, would take break even for the year by the end of the month quite happily!

Back after a week of excess

I am reliably informed that I now have a few followers, which is most welcome.

The last 8 days have seen quite a bit of action (but not really from a betting point of view). Including an audition for the illustrious eggheads! I bet CJ is quaking in his boots at the thought of 4 big guns and a water pistol shooting him down in flames.

Add on the mrs' birthday and project "lose weight for the wedding" has gone right down the pan. Going to take about a month to undo the damage done I would imagine.

From a gambling point of view, saturday was the first decent day this year - so its dragged things back from horrendous to manageably poor. Even though I missed putting a bet on at 200/1 which would have won and netted a cool 10k. Ouch.

Progress for automation is going reasonably well and hopefully there'll be a new superbot on the horizon before the end of the month. Should be a steep learning curve but there's definitely room for this action in the markets from what I have seen and done manually recently.

Hopefully I've seen the back of the most horrific drawdown of my career, although saturday was fantastic sunday was pretty horrible again, but things seem to have stabilised this week, and hopefully I can kick on for some profit for the year by the end of feb. The old methods continue to get tighter and tighter, but until the door is totally closed its still worth hammering them at least until after the world cup, I hope!

The drawdown continues

Well, it's been a horrible start to the year.

Just about avoided as bad a week as i had 2 weeks ago, but still some horrendous luck is being suffered.

On the bright side managed a huge arb with betfair that lost 56k at betfair, so that keeps the PC wolf even further from the door.

On the downside, it just isn't much fun at the moment. But it never is when it's like this. Must consider january as a month off next year. It's also left me wondering how much of a factor the weather has been.

This week has started badly as well. Hopefully I can turn it around by the end of the week, then push on next week. One day at a time at the moment.

A reader or two?

So apparently my blog has made it onto my facebook, somehow. Can't remember sharing it myself, but I guess I must have done!

Things ticking over slowly - another game passes which, a couple of years ago would have been a huge earner on the coupons, but in the "tight teenies" as they may well be called (as far as coupons are concerned) it passes without incident.

The weather still isn't helping, although at least the temperature is up a bit. Things are so quiet I'm even watching the cricket and having a blast at trading it. It's not going great at the moment, but (hopefully) its a 5 day event, so we'll see how we go.

The rollercoaster

Not the rollercoaster in the "standard" gambling sense of the word either.

Had one of my famous "ideas" earlier this week. I thought I was really on to something, so spent a little bit of time on it. I thought I had found a potential middle situation - a situation where I could get a bet on, place some clever hedge bets, and win either way - but also, in a rare situation, win on all bets placed, both the original bet and the hedges - hence creating a massive (potential) win.

Even better this bet was available regularly at the asian bookmakers, and was available in volume. It looked too good to be true - but not so good that I dismissed it out of hand.

As it goes, I was in a game situation tonight where I could have won 32k on the game. I also mistakenly thought that my worst result was +220 on the entire game. Looking more closely at the rules of the bet I was using, I could infact have been "polish middled" on the game and lost both sets of stakes (which would have been around -31.5k. And indeed I was only one goal away from doing so.

I am thankful that I didn't realise it at the time, otherwise there would have been major panic in the camp, I'm sure. A very close look now reveals that only extremely occasionally will this bet be viable, and then only as a value bet, not a bet to be hedged or middled pre-off.

The holy grail is back in the cupboard for a little longer then.

Next time, gadget.....

What a start to the year!

Well, a big drawdown on the bank holiday 28th Dec didn't help kick things off. Had a tough time of it on multiple strategies, which is always bad news. One of those weeks that comes along maybe twice a year. Not the best way to start a new one!

Been dipping in and out of football in-play markets as well again - used to play on them quite a lot. It will remain to be seen whether the strategy I am employing there will reap any rewards (although I think it will in the long term).

Picked up nice and early on the general trends in tonight's championship game (West Brom vs Notts Forest) and will have a nice position if its under 2.5 goals and if WBA don't win. May indeed have started bailing out too early - but I've been foolish recently in not closing off what could have been some excellent trades - and every price has to stop somewhere, so I've got to approach these with a little more risk-aversion I think. I see 0-0 as a possible, or a sneaky 1-0 either way, or maybe 1-1. 1-0 forest looks like it could be a fair bet on betfair.

The rest of the weekend could well be a serious damp squib. I see it as unlikely that any lower league football will take place and Scotland looks largely if not completely out of the question. So here's hoping for some juicy continental action.

How the hell am I going to maintain a 2% account for the rest of january! Time will tell, although I have some holidays saved up which I'll be putting into practice I think.

A new year, a new project

First post, so I will try to keep from rambling straight away. That will come later no doubt.

Introductions: My name is Adam, and I'm a professional gambler. Although, as time will tell, its not the only thing I do, but it is the main way that I support myself.

Makes it sound like a gamblers anonymous blog already!

I've started the blog because I had a good 2009, my best year so far from a work and life point of view, and am going to try and chart my progress to improve on that in 2010. I can't see me topping the 2009 earnings in all honesty - but you never know. I've also got my wedding this year (and stag do!) and hopefully a fantastic honeymoon to look forward to.

My success as a gambler in the past has come from having multiple "income streams" or whatever those american motivational speakers like to call them - and this year I'll be looking to expand them yet further. With one company already started at the end of 2009 I'll also be a legitimate company director and 2 more ideas in the pipeline for taxable sources of income, I'm also back in the system - which I feel 2 ways about: 1) Tax - yuck. 2) Its nice to not have to look forward to living forever under the radar.

More in the next post about how I operate and make money from the murky waters of the betting markets. And (if I get any readers) before I continue, my surname isn't Heathcote, if any of you read the betfair forums :)