Posts
Sorry for the late post - been a very very busy week from many points of view, not all gambling related (sadly!)
Wigan
Scunthorpe
QPR x 2
Sheff Wed
Watford
hartlepool
Bradford x 2
Dag & Red x 2
Rushden x 2 - beware, starts at midday
Tottenham x 2 (for tomorrow - again, look out on this one. Various team news factors, including how bad is this bug, who is in/out for both teams as they both have problems). For the record, I will bet it (especially since spurs are on the drift)
Chelsea
West Brom
York
When i have a spare 5 mins today I will also put up an accumulator bet for the afternoon. Theoretical edge on these could run into the 3 figures%, but there will be no doubt long long losing runs. Might be one just to follow on paper rather than bet.
Saturday 27 February 2010
Tuesday 23 February 2010
Midweek
Doncaster
Yeovil
Crewe
Tamworth
Manchester United
I'd use a bit of discretion on the man u game. Apparently its going to snow (according to forecast) for the majority of the game. This would put me off backing united at what will be a short price.
It remains to be seen how much impact the weather will have on the fixtures. Crewe already moved to tomorrow because of the cold weather - minus 16 overnight in parts of Scotland apparently.
No x2 plays in this midweek.
Good luck if you do play - don't bet money that you can't afford to lose.
Yeovil
Crewe
Tamworth
Manchester United
I'd use a bit of discretion on the man u game. Apparently its going to snow (according to forecast) for the majority of the game. This would put me off backing united at what will be a short price.
It remains to be seen how much impact the weather will have on the fixtures. Crewe already moved to tomorrow because of the cold weather - minus 16 overnight in parts of Scotland apparently.
No x2 plays in this midweek.
Good luck if you do play - don't bet money that you can't afford to lose.
Monday 22 February 2010
Weekend Roundup
Fulham closed at 2.11 and Villa at 1.43 for another two winners. An incredible weekend with a big day on the sunday. Really cleaned up there.
Midweek numbers are being crunched and hopefully there will be a post later tonight with any bets.
Midweek numbers are being crunched and hopefully there will be a post later tonight with any bets.
Saturday 20 February 2010
Good start to the blog record
Ok - here are the closers I have (not all are from pinn, just best price that was available at the off at a "proper" bookmaker, figures from oddsportal):
Arsenal 1.25
Portsmouth x 2 2.28
West Ham 1.72
Fulham x 2 Sun
Wrexham 2.08
Blackpool 2.35
Palace 2.05 (!)
Peterborough Void
Oldham x 2 5.4
Stockport x 2 4.9
Carlisle 4.52
Tranmere 2.26
AFC Wimbledon 3.9
Newcastle 1.48
So - counting the x2s as 2 bets, I make that 15 points staked today and 9.84 points profit for an overall figure of 16 bets, 8.84 points profit, and a 55.25% Yield.
Obviously, can't continue at that level of performance. But its nice to have a good start.
Add one more for tomorrow, another short one I am afraid - Aston Villa.
Other than that, my golfer went out by the narrowest of margins, leaving me again wishing I hadn't promised not to lay off! But still, there will be one by the end of the year, I hope! Also a crap day on the horses, that undid a good proportion of the good work on the football - but they are volatile markets, i'm sure it will come back in the long run.
Let's hope for a decent night on the US sports.
Arsenal 1.25
Portsmouth x 2 2.28
West Ham 1.72
Fulham x 2 Sun
Wrexham 2.08
Blackpool 2.35
Palace 2.05 (!)
Peterborough Void
Oldham x 2 5.4
Stockport x 2 4.9
Carlisle 4.52
Tranmere 2.26
AFC Wimbledon 3.9
Newcastle 1.48
So - counting the x2s as 2 bets, I make that 15 points staked today and 9.84 points profit for an overall figure of 16 bets, 8.84 points profit, and a 55.25% Yield.
Obviously, can't continue at that level of performance. But its nice to have a good start.
Add one more for tomorrow, another short one I am afraid - Aston Villa.
Other than that, my golfer went out by the narrowest of margins, leaving me again wishing I hadn't promised not to lay off! But still, there will be one by the end of the year, I hope! Also a crap day on the horses, that undid a good proportion of the good work on the football - but they are volatile markets, i'm sure it will come back in the long run.
Let's hope for a decent night on the US sports.
Prepare for saturday
Well, torquay couldn't get it done. Interesting market on the game, rotherham from 1.60 to 1.83 back to 1.70, torquay into 5.5 then back to 6.6 at the off. Played it well but didn't get the result I wanted.
Some interesting games tomorrow though.
Oldham and stockport are both double qualifiers like torquay was. Fulham to beat the artificially mighty Birmingham City on sunday (and in a bizarre twist of fate I'll be at the game, supporting blues but betting heavily on fulham!) looks like another decent one.
For the record, torquay closed at pinnacle at 6.24. 1 bet, 1 loser so far.
Arsenal
Portsmouth x 2
West Ham
Fulham x 2
Wrexham
Blackpool
Palace
Peterborough
Oldham x 2
Stockport x 2
Carlisle
Tranmere
AFC Wimbledon
Portsmouth another double stake. Yuck.
One of Stockport or Oldham would guarantee a good day I am sure.
Good luck if you do follow - and remember, only follow if you can handle losing as well as winning!
Some interesting games tomorrow though.
Oldham and stockport are both double qualifiers like torquay was. Fulham to beat the artificially mighty Birmingham City on sunday (and in a bizarre twist of fate I'll be at the game, supporting blues but betting heavily on fulham!) looks like another decent one.
For the record, torquay closed at pinnacle at 6.24. 1 bet, 1 loser so far.
Arsenal
Portsmouth x 2
West Ham
Fulham x 2
Wrexham
Blackpool
Palace
Peterborough
Oldham x 2
Stockport x 2
Carlisle
Tranmere
AFC Wimbledon
Portsmouth another double stake. Yuck.
One of Stockport or Oldham would guarantee a good day I am sure.
Good luck if you do follow - and remember, only follow if you can handle losing as well as winning!
Thursday 18 February 2010
The follow-up
Well, 0-2 in Europa league for me on the main bets, picking up a tiny win on my other bet. Real sod's law sort of day.
Still, did accounts and finances and things are still brighter than I realised. With some tightening of credit lines etc I should be able to weather the same storm I have over the last 6/7 weeks all over again, and it still wouldn't have too much impact (apart from pretty much making sure I won't be in profit for 2010 of course!)
37k green on a golfer in the world matchplay. So tempting to lay some off but I have promised myself that I won't do it. If it comes in, then it certainly stops me worrying for the year!
Spent the whole week working hard on getting a spreadsheet up and running. An idea that I had a while back that I've decided has to be put into play. It is basically filtering some of my better bets, and the results for the season had I been betting them at best gettable prices near the off (found from www.oddsportal.com) would have been:
166.96 profits from 527 units staked (majority of bets staking 2 points, occasional 3 point play, rare 1 unit play, possible (but not yet seen) 4 unit play (which will inevitably lose I'm sure!). ROI of 31.68%.
There's no backfitting been done and the filtering makes total sense. I had no idea what the results would be before I applied the filters, and have done no tweaking since.
I followed it through with 4 different staking methods and weighting the one most important rating in with the entire bunch differently. Interestingly all four methods return between 30 and 33% ROI season so far, but the level staking (x per point, so a 2 point bet you would bet say £20 if you were playing for £10 per unit) is the smoothest when graphed, so the easiest to swallow the downtrends on.
It also points out something I have known for a long time. If you want the big ROIs on football, you need to go after the big priced underdogs at the right time (i.e. when the value is there of course). I'll try to post all the plays on the blog and keep a record if it doesn't prove too time-consuming.
There will be one play for tomorrow - a 2 unit play, torquay at rotherham. I won't put prices up until the lines have closed - i'll get the historical best price from pinnacle from www.oddsportal.com and use that for proofing.
Wouldn't put anyone off taking the 11/2 with coral or tote if they can get on at those fools (especially with coral's 10% cashback - after all, the bet, whilst value, is most likely to lose). Skybet were 6/1 but hitting the 6.6 on betfair has ruined that - I also had 20 quid on on a mate's skybet account we go halves on, I have promised not to blow it with any big stakes! However these warm favourites can go off very short (artificially so) when they are the friday night game. The initial moves on the asian lines suggest Rotherham will drift, but experience tell me that the day of the game market can be a totally different dynamic (and also team news could change things).
From a quick eye on the team news it seems that both teams are a little short of firepower and want a striker. It will be interesting to see if/how that affects the goal line. Under 2.5 a best price in asia right now of 1.88, let's see how it goes.
If you follow - good luck - but don't even consider it unless you can handle losing runs. I'm sure there will be more than one significant one on this journey.
Still, did accounts and finances and things are still brighter than I realised. With some tightening of credit lines etc I should be able to weather the same storm I have over the last 6/7 weeks all over again, and it still wouldn't have too much impact (apart from pretty much making sure I won't be in profit for 2010 of course!)
37k green on a golfer in the world matchplay. So tempting to lay some off but I have promised myself that I won't do it. If it comes in, then it certainly stops me worrying for the year!
Spent the whole week working hard on getting a spreadsheet up and running. An idea that I had a while back that I've decided has to be put into play. It is basically filtering some of my better bets, and the results for the season had I been betting them at best gettable prices near the off (found from www.oddsportal.com) would have been:
166.96 profits from 527 units staked (majority of bets staking 2 points, occasional 3 point play, rare 1 unit play, possible (but not yet seen) 4 unit play (which will inevitably lose I'm sure!). ROI of 31.68%.
There's no backfitting been done and the filtering makes total sense. I had no idea what the results would be before I applied the filters, and have done no tweaking since.
I followed it through with 4 different staking methods and weighting the one most important rating in with the entire bunch differently. Interestingly all four methods return between 30 and 33% ROI season so far, but the level staking (x per point, so a 2 point bet you would bet say £20 if you were playing for £10 per unit) is the smoothest when graphed, so the easiest to swallow the downtrends on.
It also points out something I have known for a long time. If you want the big ROIs on football, you need to go after the big priced underdogs at the right time (i.e. when the value is there of course). I'll try to post all the plays on the blog and keep a record if it doesn't prove too time-consuming.
There will be one play for tomorrow - a 2 unit play, torquay at rotherham. I won't put prices up until the lines have closed - i'll get the historical best price from pinnacle from www.oddsportal.com and use that for proofing.
Wouldn't put anyone off taking the 11/2 with coral or tote if they can get on at those fools (especially with coral's 10% cashback - after all, the bet, whilst value, is most likely to lose). Skybet were 6/1 but hitting the 6.6 on betfair has ruined that - I also had 20 quid on on a mate's skybet account we go halves on, I have promised not to blow it with any big stakes! However these warm favourites can go off very short (artificially so) when they are the friday night game. The initial moves on the asian lines suggest Rotherham will drift, but experience tell me that the day of the game market can be a totally different dynamic (and also team news could change things).
From a quick eye on the team news it seems that both teams are a little short of firepower and want a striker. It will be interesting to see if/how that affects the goal line. Under 2.5 a best price in asia right now of 1.88, let's see how it goes.
If you follow - good luck - but don't even consider it unless you can handle losing runs. I'm sure there will be more than one significant one on this journey.
Thurs 18 Feb
Well, 2 horrible wipeout days in the last 6, where you wouldn't believe the string of losers I have been backing. A lot of volatility with this turnover sort of strategy, and once again in a hole for the year on it. Would be nice to see it turn a profit and stay there - I hit a year high on it of +4k and now its decent numbers in the red again.
To be fair though, having had 2 days like that (and another rough one yesterday) in the last 6, I think up can be the only way forwards from here!
I'm also going through a major fine-tuning of my football ratings to try and strip out a "super-confidence system" which should limit the amount of losing days that I have. I'm trying to use a number of ratings in conjunction with each other, with the aim of knocking out the poor value bets, and hopefully coming up with something with a >10% ROI, which is the ultimate aim. I haven't got anything for this season that on its own is showing those sorts of figures (apart from the early signs on my US Sports bets) but hopefully I'll get something up and running before saturday so I can give it a live test (and post the selections on here!)
Stay lucky (or in my case, get lucky in the first place) - although I hope with being on Bayern heavy last night I haven't used up my luck allowance for the month!
To be fair though, having had 2 days like that (and another rough one yesterday) in the last 6, I think up can be the only way forwards from here!
I'm also going through a major fine-tuning of my football ratings to try and strip out a "super-confidence system" which should limit the amount of losing days that I have. I'm trying to use a number of ratings in conjunction with each other, with the aim of knocking out the poor value bets, and hopefully coming up with something with a >10% ROI, which is the ultimate aim. I haven't got anything for this season that on its own is showing those sorts of figures (apart from the early signs on my US Sports bets) but hopefully I'll get something up and running before saturday so I can give it a live test (and post the selections on here!)
Stay lucky (or in my case, get lucky in the first place) - although I hope with being on Bayern heavy last night I haven't used up my luck allowance for the month!
Friday 12 February 2010
Time for a post
Right, looking to get more than one post a week going now.
Its been a tough week. A couple of big bets, one which I very much liked and won, one which I didn't like that lost, but that's the way it goes sometimes. I have looked through the big bets I've had this season, and there's been 67 of them in the prem and la liga. The spanish bets have shown very little edge, which is disappointing as its a league I've had a decent edge on in the past. The prem bets, there are 5 that I have had a strong feeling against. 2 have won and 3 have lost, so nothing conclusive (not that there would ever be anything conclusive in a sample of 5 bets!).
The upturn for the year that i described went up somewhere near 4k, then has settled down again at about 1k down. Its now becoming a fine balance - 6 weeks in it looks like it could be very tough to make any money maintaining this level of turnover (which is no surprise) - so I'll have to replace the turnover somehow (some arbitrage maybe - although that's also very boring and tough these days, although you can still get turnover by going after the tiny arbs I think) if I drop some of the stuff which looks like it has somewhere between a +2 and -2% edge.
Dabbling in the US sports again has started to have some success - thought I had put that to bed a few years ago when I was working 100-110 hours a week, but maybe not. Anything to get in front at the moment! Makes the 10k bet I missed even more painful, since with that under my belt I would be well in front for the year and confident. C'est la vie.
Its been a tough week. A couple of big bets, one which I very much liked and won, one which I didn't like that lost, but that's the way it goes sometimes. I have looked through the big bets I've had this season, and there's been 67 of them in the prem and la liga. The spanish bets have shown very little edge, which is disappointing as its a league I've had a decent edge on in the past. The prem bets, there are 5 that I have had a strong feeling against. 2 have won and 3 have lost, so nothing conclusive (not that there would ever be anything conclusive in a sample of 5 bets!).
The upturn for the year that i described went up somewhere near 4k, then has settled down again at about 1k down. Its now becoming a fine balance - 6 weeks in it looks like it could be very tough to make any money maintaining this level of turnover (which is no surprise) - so I'll have to replace the turnover somehow (some arbitrage maybe - although that's also very boring and tough these days, although you can still get turnover by going after the tiny arbs I think) if I drop some of the stuff which looks like it has somewhere between a +2 and -2% edge.
Dabbling in the US sports again has started to have some success - thought I had put that to bed a few years ago when I was working 100-110 hours a week, but maybe not. Anything to get in front at the moment! Makes the 10k bet I missed even more painful, since with that under my belt I would be well in front for the year and confident. C'est la vie.
Sunday 7 February 2010
The swings
Well, my project "turnover fund" (which hopefully on the upshot of things will also make money, with a view to it being of interest once the coupons are well and truly all done) has had a very interesting year.
The basis behind it initially was to get turnover going to make sure that I remained safe from the evil betfair premium charge. Its certainly managed that - at the moment we must be looking at an ROI in the 1% level (if that) on a huge turnover.
Its hit a high some time last year of +27k, its then been down as far as in the red, then its been back up again - at the moment it has hit the front for the year 2010 (was 19k down at the worst stage).
The numbers are quite simply frightening. All logic dictates that by diversifying as much as I do in this project I should smooth out volatility, but it seems to be the total opposite! Zaragoza winning just now has put it up to 2.3k positive for this year. If it could make 12k by the end of this year I'd be very pleased - and as an ongoing project I am more confident now that there is profit to be made than I have ever been on the project. It's also been an amazing learning curve.
I'm not sure I've got the stomach for the day when that is the only fruit for me - hopefully it will never come. Despite a shocking start to the year from the coupon point of view, I'm a lot better positioned at close of business tonight than I have been for a few weeks. It would be nice to get some serious numbers for the year under the belt before the wedding, during the world cup - I'm still hopeful, and the markets are so huge and relatively easy to read (or were in 06) so there should be some decent opportunities.
Was 8k green on a golfer today which would have been most welcome, also 9k green on a horse - land one or two of those and the monthly/yearly P and L looks most different.
Time to keep cracking on, would take break even for the year by the end of the month quite happily!
The basis behind it initially was to get turnover going to make sure that I remained safe from the evil betfair premium charge. Its certainly managed that - at the moment we must be looking at an ROI in the 1% level (if that) on a huge turnover.
Its hit a high some time last year of +27k, its then been down as far as in the red, then its been back up again - at the moment it has hit the front for the year 2010 (was 19k down at the worst stage).
The numbers are quite simply frightening. All logic dictates that by diversifying as much as I do in this project I should smooth out volatility, but it seems to be the total opposite! Zaragoza winning just now has put it up to 2.3k positive for this year. If it could make 12k by the end of this year I'd be very pleased - and as an ongoing project I am more confident now that there is profit to be made than I have ever been on the project. It's also been an amazing learning curve.
I'm not sure I've got the stomach for the day when that is the only fruit for me - hopefully it will never come. Despite a shocking start to the year from the coupon point of view, I'm a lot better positioned at close of business tonight than I have been for a few weeks. It would be nice to get some serious numbers for the year under the belt before the wedding, during the world cup - I'm still hopeful, and the markets are so huge and relatively easy to read (or were in 06) so there should be some decent opportunities.
Was 8k green on a golfer today which would have been most welcome, also 9k green on a horse - land one or two of those and the monthly/yearly P and L looks most different.
Time to keep cracking on, would take break even for the year by the end of the month quite happily!
Friday 5 February 2010
Back after a week of excess
I am reliably informed that I now have a few followers, which is most welcome.
The last 8 days have seen quite a bit of action (but not really from a betting point of view). Including an audition for the illustrious eggheads! I bet CJ is quaking in his boots at the thought of 4 big guns and a water pistol shooting him down in flames.
Add on the mrs' birthday and project "lose weight for the wedding" has gone right down the pan. Going to take about a month to undo the damage done I would imagine.
From a gambling point of view, saturday was the first decent day this year - so its dragged things back from horrendous to manageably poor. Even though I missed putting a bet on at 200/1 which would have won and netted a cool 10k. Ouch.
Progress for automation is going reasonably well and hopefully there'll be a new superbot on the horizon before the end of the month. Should be a steep learning curve but there's definitely room for this action in the markets from what I have seen and done manually recently.
Hopefully I've seen the back of the most horrific drawdown of my career, although saturday was fantastic sunday was pretty horrible again, but things seem to have stabilised this week, and hopefully I can kick on for some profit for the year by the end of feb. The old methods continue to get tighter and tighter, but until the door is totally closed its still worth hammering them at least until after the world cup, I hope!
The last 8 days have seen quite a bit of action (but not really from a betting point of view). Including an audition for the illustrious eggheads! I bet CJ is quaking in his boots at the thought of 4 big guns and a water pistol shooting him down in flames.
Add on the mrs' birthday and project "lose weight for the wedding" has gone right down the pan. Going to take about a month to undo the damage done I would imagine.
From a gambling point of view, saturday was the first decent day this year - so its dragged things back from horrendous to manageably poor. Even though I missed putting a bet on at 200/1 which would have won and netted a cool 10k. Ouch.
Progress for automation is going reasonably well and hopefully there'll be a new superbot on the horizon before the end of the month. Should be a steep learning curve but there's definitely room for this action in the markets from what I have seen and done manually recently.
Hopefully I've seen the back of the most horrific drawdown of my career, although saturday was fantastic sunday was pretty horrible again, but things seem to have stabilised this week, and hopefully I can kick on for some profit for the year by the end of feb. The old methods continue to get tighter and tighter, but until the door is totally closed its still worth hammering them at least until after the world cup, I hope!
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