29/1/11

Going to have a very close examination and look whether to continue with january football once the transfer window really starts interfering with things. Toss in the amount of managerial changes and the inevitable shaking up of squads and its easy enough to argue that at the very best an edge is eroded in january to levels whereby its better to pass on the action.

We were strong from feb last year so still hoping for a good runin, to finish betting for the season at 5% yield. Hopefully that's achieveable.

TODAY:

Walsall x2.5
Swindon x1.5
Oxford x1.5
Norwich x1.5
Lazio
Cagliari x1.5
Genoa x1.5

25/1/11

Some price movements mean limited action tonight:

Gillingham (get 5/4 or better)
Wigan x1.5
Hayes (get 13/8 or better)
Fleetwood (get 5/4 or better)
Hearts x2
Yeovil

22/1/11 part deux

Southampton x1.5 (4/6 min)
Swindon x2 (6/4 min)
Mainz
Reading x1.5
Rotherham
Millwall x1.5 (9/2 min. Millwall were rumoured to have a lot of players out, they don't look in too bad shape and this is a big price. Normally opposing team news gambles like this is profitable in my experience).
Fiorentina
Hibernian x1.5
newcastle x1.5
bournemouth x1.5 (drifting)
Rushden x2 (3/1 min, price is at ladbrokes, its been bet heavily, so only bet if it comes back out if you can't get ladbrokes prices)

22/1/11

Early bet

Derby (1pm kickoff) one unit play

Midweek 18/1/11

Slim as promised. I am doing some extra pruning in general so the quantity of selections should reduce but the yield increase. I don't think the overall amount of profit should change drastically, but the swings should be smaller, which makes it easier to follow (I hope) since it shouldn't test your temperament SO much.

Gateshead (11/10 min)
Tamworth (6/5) - price is tough to get, but they are drifting and could easily get bigger, so if you can't get it, try later.
hearts x1.5
grimsby x2 (4/6 min)

Good luck

Today and midweek

It looks very slim pickings, i'll post anything in the morning.

Beware before following my picks this week though, look at today's P and L on horse racing:

Horse Racing: £666.66

Freaky.

15/1/11

I've been disappointed in general with this season's results, and after the update, whilst you should easily beat the yield on here given the proofing is only with the professional books, its still not to the required standard.

I'll have to go with a "less is more" approach and try to post earlier to make sure the value hasn't been sucked out by the time anyone who is trying to get on is on.

Here we go:

Napoli x2.5
Stevenage x3
West Brom x3.5
Carlisle x1.5
Hearts x2
Stoke x3
Dagenham x1.5
Getafe x1.5
Nurnberg x2
Kaiserslautern
Montpellier x2
Hoffenheim
Wolves AT 12/1 OR BETTER ONLY (betfair maybe best route)
Mainz
Portsmouth x0.5 AT 5/1 OR BETTER ONLY (ditto above)

I like the shape of this weekend, a lot of homes around evens which I make a fair bit shorter. Get best prices as always of course.

14/1/11

One bet for tonight:

Dortmund

12/1/11

Not such a nice date, let's hope for nicer football. Was even on the (rumoured fix) 2-2 in tamworth vs newport (was also on newport, who were 2-1 up). 2-2 very late on then a red card and a goal for tamworth (was also on 3-3) who then held on to win 3-2. That's the sort of luck over the last few days, but it turns around

One from tonight's:

Motherwell.

11/1/11

What a nice date.

Walsall x1.5
Histon

Good luck if you play, high probability it will be a losing night, but good value. You can't eat value, but at the prices the teams have to be worth a poke.

8/1/11

Newport
Luton
Fleetwood x1.5
Rushden x2.5
Morecambe x2
Yeovil x1.5
Dag x1.5
Sociedad
Barrow

Good luck today!

8/1/11

Post around lunchtime today - a quietish day thanks to the magic of the cup.

One more for tonight

Got distracted and was not thinking straight when I put that post up earlier! One more for tonight:

Sunderland.

Good luck

5/1/11

Aside from bets already advised and (hopefully!) placed, just going to add one more for tonight as I feel the value has already been sucked out of the other ones:

Newcastle

Good luck

5/1/11

Tonight's games have some potential bets - however the prices are again moving with me so I will be keeping a careful eye on them and putting a post up at 7pm sharp with either a couple of bets or no bets.

3/1/11

Leicester x1.5
Southend x1.5
Bournemouth
Swindon x2.5
Brighton
Oldham x1.5
walsall x2.5 (4/1 or better)
carlisle x1.5
Bury
Oxford x1.5
mansfield x1.5
rushden x2
liverpool
cagliari
dag
yeovil
accrington

Today's picks

If January is poor this year, there will be a winter break next year for me.

Hoping that's not the case! Although a month off would be fantastic.

Todays will be posted around 1pm, sorry for delay, huge backlog with all these compressed fixtures.

1/1/11 mark 2

Southampton x3 (1/2 or better only)
Sunderland x4
forest green
Cardiff
Bury x1.5
Millwall x2.5
Burnley x1.5
Kilmarnock x2
Zaragoza
Ipswich
Yeovil x2.5
Inverness
Stevenage
Newport x1.5 (8/15 or better only)
Wigan x1.5 (may drift)
Stoke
Orient (1pm kickoff, sorry)

I'm disappointed with the yield this season so I am applying some extra conditions to blog bets before posting. Hopefully this will see things go back over the magic 10% figure.

Good luck

1/1/11

Happy new year to all

Sorry for late post - was behind on prep work.

To get us started - Early kickoffs - WBA x 1.5