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Well, disappointed with Rushden. Good job I don't use kelly staking as it would have been a big bet. Went on a drift pre off, so the market did well there - then again I was also with millwall and traded myself into getting about 1.80 on them for a decent bet - and they also drew, so the market's not always so smart, there was a pile of money for them. Brentford can be tough nuts to crack and I feel they are a little like swindon, unfashionable and underrated.
Onto today's business
Portsmouth come up in the numbers but I won't be backing them. They also won't appear for the record. There's also a decent gamble on blackburn and I can understand why - but this game is really one for the gamblers.
Ipswich x2
Palace 5/1 minimum
Watford
Darlington x2
Falkirk x2
Wrexham (close to x2 - let's hope its NOT a repeat of midweek)
St Mirren
Arsenal (but I might hang around for price improvements, they must be fairly ravaged by injuries and also may rest more players)
Stoke x2
Some raggedy teams on there in the x2s! Overdue a decent price winner though. Good luck if you play and keep stakes manageable.
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Should say as well, as far as the Man U game goes: 7/4 is a huge huge price for Man U at home in my opinion. If you look at their record when they are available at evens and above at home it is very respectable over the last 10 years.
ReplyDeleteI backed them at 2.78 betfair and I think the overreaction to Rooney's absence is evident. Huge pressure game for Ancelotti as well. 11/8 to 7/4 just shows how much the market thinks Rooney is worth at the moment, but its at the absolute cusp of believeability. If Man U had won 1-0 at bayern and had Rooney available I'm sure they would be 2.25 for this one, perhaps 2.30. almost 0.5 points is a lot to add to that. Shouldn't be above 6/4 here I don't think. No official bet for the blog though.
Hi Adam, I've been away for a week, it doesn't look as though I missed out on too much. A good miss on Rushden for me yesterday, sorry!! Let's hope for some good luck today, I do fancy Stoke strongly, so the 4/5+ is very appealing. I'm just going to stick to the x2 again I think. Also at around 2.1 I'm going to lay Blackburn, I think that is far to short! Good luck anyway, Mark
ReplyDeleteHi Mark - I think they could go off around evens or shorter - if you look at the team news its anyone's guess what 11 Pompey will put out.
ReplyDeleteGood luck though, I'm swaying much more towards blackburn given the situation. Might be one to wait until the lineups are announced, you might get to lay blackburn at odds on if its as bad as it could be.
Ok thanks for that, I'll hold-off then I think until nearer 3pm. I see there's none of thayt 7/4 Man Utd about now, well done with 2.78.
ReplyDeletewell - saying you are overdue a win is total bs - but that's some results for the x2s.
ReplyDeleteThat would have been some acca (esp if you put wrexham in!)
Adam...absolutely amazing mate. I didn't do Wrexham unfortuately, but still very, very impressive. I doubled my normal stake on Stoke as I fancied them as well. The only slight downside was Blackburn going the other way, I laid a little at 2.1 and 2.08 but to less than half my intended, but never mind. Still by far my best result of the season. Well done and cheers Mark. PS you should get your overall record updated it would be highly impressive now!! I don't think Palace were ever 5/1 so you were only really St Mirren off landing the lot!!
ReplyDeleteyes, sorry about that advice mark - got that one totally wrong. Haven't seen anything from the game yet, will be interested in the analysis. One thing I wouldn't have predicted is 0-0!
ReplyDeleteYes I will work on the record later. Still behind after cheltenham and hoping to make some big progress next week. Hope this is the precursor to april!
To be fair, watford didn't win either - although by all accounts they had their chances! Glad you had a good day too.
Evening Adam, do you think you'll have anything to put up this evening for tomorrow's games? I'm not around in the morning so anything early would be great. Cheers Mark
ReplyDeleteIpswich x2 +3.1
ReplyDeletePalace 5/1 minimum 0
Watford -1
Darlington x2 +12
Falkirk x2 +9.08
Wrexham +2.89
St Mirren 0
Arsenal +0.26
Stoke x2 +0.75
Total Staked 11pts, 6W-1L, P/L +27.08pts
Record goes to 61W-70L, +46.837pts