Is your main betting on horses or football? I'm a newish follower of your blog but previous results look impressive. Don't you give a recommended minimum price to bet at though?
My main action is football Jon. I do my results at the best attainable prices (I count pinnacle and the other books that allow winners only, results proofed to fantasy prices at the tote/skybet are just pointless in my opinion) at the off, so all the selections I place I am confident will remain above a value price before the off.
Occasionally I have a marginal bet where I do specify a minimum price, but they are the exception rather than the rule. You should always take the best price available to you of course.
Hi mouldhouse. I hope that name doesn't reflect the state of your house!
Looks like we follow the same blog - Green All Over. I was interested to read your recent comments on there and tend to agree with them. I was surprised by your comment
'Why is it possible to lay the odds on teams year in, year out, blindly, and make a profit?'
Is that really true and if it was why wouldn't everyone be doing it? Surely that would be a strategy that could very easily be back tested.
When you say you get involved in 50% of UK matches do you mean at Betfair or, as I summise, mainly with the asain books, Pinnacle, Sbo, 188bet etc.? And do you just run your postions or lay the back later?
Your picks you put up, what differentiates these to the remainder of the 50% you get involved with?
A lot of questions there I know but hopefully you are happy to provide some insight.
nothing to do with the state of my house, no, lol.
My comment refers to cassini's posting about that strategy on there. Its one he apparently adheres to (although doesn't post that much about it anymore but if you go back a year or so there's plenty of mentions of it).
It seems true but I am going on his figures rather than my own data.
Why wouldn't everyone be doing it? Because as a whole people want winners and are either not price-sensitive or not very good at pricing markets. I have no doubt several players on betfair regularly lay the odds ons at the right sort of prices and do well enough for themselves, but its unlikely in the near future that a) those people will win enough to become so large that they distort the market outwards or b) the general public will wise up to not backing "sure things".
I also doubt its a strategy with a large ROI, and I also imagine there can be long periods of losing, and then suddenly 2 or 3 get chinned at the same time.
I mean at a variety of the books/exchanges and a couple of other outs. I run the positions.
I expect the blog picks to be of a higher quality, i.e. more out of the money, the picks with the best ROI.
I don't read too much else apart from GAO, and some of the blogs that are on his roll to be honest. GAO is good because its interactive and he's not afraid to post opinions, and also doesn't shy away from sensible debate as many would.
I thought you were stating that odds on favourites could be laid blindly for profit, I didn't realise you were quoting Cassini. I have to say I find that highly unlikely. As you say 'I have no doubt several players on betfair regularly lay the odds ons at the right sort of prices and do well enough for themselves' I've no doubt that is true when you've qualified it with 'at the right sort of prices'. But then that true of backing or laying anything on Betfair, if you do it at the right sort of prices you will do alright?
I'll follow your picks with interest. What sort of ratings criteria do you use?
I'm not aware of GAO and google didn't throw anything up. Can you stick the link up please
If you back or lay anything at the right price - I wouldn't necessarily subscribe to that. Its a bit like saying all gambles in any sport go too far, its a bit generalistic. On my selections for example, even if you laid them all at the lowest price for which 4 figures has been traded on betfair let us say, over the season I am certain you would still lose money.
If you laid them all 30 seconds before the off time, do you think there is a possibility that there could be a low yield strategy there? I think there may well be, but you would need data (if you were really interested in this area).
I use a number of different techniques which work from all sorts of different angles - I don't just use one set of ratings or one methodology.
'If you laid them all 30 seconds before the off time, do you think there is a possibility that there could be a low yield strategy there?' Are you referring to your picks or blindly laying odds on favourites?
I've looked but haven't yet found Cassini's writings on the odds on favourite laying. Can you remember if it was just UK matches or the high profile europena leagues or what?
What do you think of his value draws attempt, I find it hard to think there could be much of an edge there?
Are you referring to your picks or blindly laying odds on favourites? - blindly laying odds ons.
It was the high profile european leagues, especially profitable in the bundesliga (although that's just from mining the data, I don't recall an explanation being given for why that should be the case, germany "out-performing" other leagues as far as this strategy goes).
Draws - i believe they are a semi-random outcome which are very difficult to predict. I've only ever had very limited success. I do value bet some draws occasionally but almost always I am also backing the outsider, where the majority of the value (IMO) lies, so talking about games the shape of 1.xx, 3.xx or 4.xx the draw, 5+ the outsider.
The stats in the premiership though over the recent past have tended towards a few more draws though. At the moment really its something I try to keep on top of rather than finding a way to profit from it on a regular basis.
If he keeps his gold-all-over updated, you'll soon be able to see when the draw picks are beyond luck and actually have something behind them, but i'd want a VERY low probability of a negative yield before starting to bet them myself, less than 1 in 1000, due to the random nature of the draw "beast".
Looking at the market formations, I think there will most likely be 2 picks tonight, a 1 pt and a 1.5pt, I am just finishing getting on myself, and will post them about 6pm
Posts
Sorry its a bit late, absorbed in the racing today!
ReplyDeleteIs your main betting on horses or football? I'm a newish follower of your blog but previous results look impressive. Don't you give a recommended minimum price to bet at though?
ReplyDeleteMy main action is football Jon. I do my results at the best attainable prices (I count pinnacle and the other books that allow winners only, results proofed to fantasy prices at the tote/skybet are just pointless in my opinion) at the off, so all the selections I place I am confident will remain above a value price before the off.
ReplyDeleteOccasionally I have a marginal bet where I do specify a minimum price, but they are the exception rather than the rule. You should always take the best price available to you of course.
Hi mouldhouse. I hope that name doesn't reflect the state of your house!
ReplyDeleteLooks like we follow the same blog - Green All Over. I was interested to read your recent comments on there and tend to agree with them. I was surprised by your comment
'Why is it possible to lay the odds on teams year in, year out, blindly, and make a profit?'
Is that really true and if it was why wouldn't everyone be doing it? Surely that would be a strategy that could very easily be back tested.
When you say you get involved in 50% of UK matches do you mean at Betfair or, as I summise, mainly with the asain books, Pinnacle, Sbo, 188bet etc.? And do you just run your postions or lay the back later?
Your picks you put up, what differentiates these to the remainder of the 50% you get involved with?
A lot of questions there I know but hopefully you are happy to provide some insight.
What other blogs do you follow?
Thanks for any response
Jon
Hi Jon.
ReplyDeletenothing to do with the state of my house, no, lol.
My comment refers to cassini's posting about that strategy on there. Its one he apparently adheres to (although doesn't post that much about it anymore but if you go back a year or so there's plenty of mentions of it).
It seems true but I am going on his figures rather than my own data.
Why wouldn't everyone be doing it? Because as a whole people want winners and are either not price-sensitive or not very good at pricing markets. I have no doubt several players on betfair regularly lay the odds ons at the right sort of prices and do well enough for themselves, but its unlikely in the near future that a) those people will win enough to become so large that they distort the market outwards or b) the general public will wise up to not backing "sure things".
I also doubt its a strategy with a large ROI, and I also imagine there can be long periods of losing, and then suddenly 2 or 3 get chinned at the same time.
I mean at a variety of the books/exchanges and a couple of other outs. I run the positions.
I expect the blog picks to be of a higher quality, i.e. more out of the money, the picks with the best ROI.
I don't read too much else apart from GAO, and some of the blogs that are on his roll to be honest. GAO is good because its interactive and he's not afraid to post opinions, and also doesn't shy away from sensible debate as many would.
I thought you were stating that odds on favourites could be laid blindly for profit, I didn't realise you were quoting Cassini. I have to say I find that highly unlikely.
ReplyDeleteAs you say 'I have no doubt several players on betfair regularly lay the odds ons at the right sort of prices and do well enough for themselves' I've no doubt that is true when you've qualified it with 'at the right sort of prices'. But then that true of backing or laying anything on Betfair, if you do it at the right sort of prices you will do alright?
I'll follow your picks with interest. What sort of ratings criteria do you use?
I'm not aware of GAO and google didn't throw anything up. Can you stick the link up please
Cheers
Jon
If you back or lay anything at the right price - I wouldn't necessarily subscribe to that. Its a bit like saying all gambles in any sport go too far, its a bit generalistic. On my selections for example, even if you laid them all at the lowest price for which 4 figures has been traded on betfair let us say, over the season I am certain you would still lose money.
ReplyDeleteIf you laid them all 30 seconds before the off time, do you think there is a possibility that there could be a low yield strategy there? I think there may well be, but you would need data (if you were really interested in this area).
I use a number of different techniques which work from all sorts of different angles - I don't just use one set of ratings or one methodology.
GAO is just green-all-over, sorry!
Thanks for the comments
GAO - What an idiot I am!!
ReplyDelete'If you laid them all 30 seconds before the off time, do you think there is a possibility that there could be a low yield strategy there?' Are you referring to your picks or blindly laying odds on favourites?
I've looked but haven't yet found Cassini's writings on the odds on favourite laying. Can you remember if it was just UK matches or the high profile europena leagues or what?
What do you think of his value draws attempt, I find it hard to think there could be much of an edge there?
Are you referring to your picks or blindly laying odds on favourites? - blindly laying odds ons.
ReplyDeleteIt was the high profile european leagues, especially profitable in the bundesliga (although that's just from mining the data, I don't recall an explanation being given for why that should be the case, germany "out-performing" other leagues as far as this strategy goes).
Draws - i believe they are a semi-random outcome which are very difficult to predict. I've only ever had very limited success. I do value bet some draws occasionally but almost always I am also backing the outsider, where the majority of the value (IMO) lies, so talking about games the shape of 1.xx, 3.xx or 4.xx the draw, 5+ the outsider.
The stats in the premiership though over the recent past have tended towards a few more draws though. At the moment really its something I try to keep on top of rather than finding a way to profit from it on a regular basis.
If he keeps his gold-all-over updated, you'll soon be able to see when the draw picks are beyond luck and actually have something behind them, but i'd want a VERY low probability of a negative yield before starting to bet them myself, less than 1 in 1000, due to the random nature of the draw "beast".
Must be something about Germany, his value draws are also outperforming there.
ReplyDeleteDo you know at this stage whether there will be any picks tonight?
Looking at the market formations, I think there will most likely be 2 picks tonight, a 1 pt and a 1.5pt, I am just finishing getting on myself, and will post them about 6pm
ReplyDeleteNewport = -1pt
ReplyDeleteLuton = -1pt
Fleetwood = -1.5pts
Rushden = -2.5pts
Morecambe = +6.2pts
Yeovil = + 2.61pts
Dagenham = -1.5pts
Barrow = -1pt
Sociedad = -1pt
Football P&L = -0.69pts, 13 staked, 2W-7L