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Doncaster
Yeovil
Crewe
Tamworth
Manchester United
I'd use a bit of discretion on the man u game. Apparently its going to snow (according to forecast) for the majority of the game. This would put me off backing united at what will be a short price.
It remains to be seen how much impact the weather will have on the fixtures. Crewe already moved to tomorrow because of the cold weather - minus 16 overnight in parts of Scotland apparently.
No x2 plays in this midweek.
Good luck if you do play - don't bet money that you can't afford to lose.
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I'm also adding morecambe away at bury.
ReplyDelete3 losers 2 winners and a profit on the night. My extra filters filtered out 2 more massive priced away winners (but some losers as well) for an extra 5 points worth of potential profit. Frustrating but in the long run I expect the extra filtering to be the central engine behind making the ratings work overall, so I'll take the W and be happy with that.
ReplyDeleteAdam, I followed these results tonight, what 'SPs' do you see? OOI what prices did you back at? I assume from earlier post you are using the asian books - sbo, pinnacle, 188bet, any others? What is your feeling on these guys reliabilty? I wouldn't feel comfortable leaving money with any of them except maybe Pinnacle.
ReplyDeletesbo and 188 are very reliable. Their sponsorship deals alone give me a great deal of confidence in them. They also pay very fast via moneybookers.
ReplyDeleteThe only time I would be worried about leaving money with them would be after a major tournament i.e. the world cup - they will have to process tens of millions of pounds of withdrawals then, so i'd get mine in before the semi finals and keep a token balance.
If you are betting in volume, the amount of times you can get a 4 figure bet at pinn/asians soon pays for itself versus taking 0.06+ lower on betfair (since that is the only time the bots get interesting in laying, when they could (and maybe do) auto-hedge).
SPs:
Donc 2.7 (I took 2.72)
Yeovil 3.78 (I took 4.02)
Tamworth 2.95 (I took 2.60, ouch)
Man U 1.22 (I took 1.21)
Morecambe 4.68 (I took 5.21)
So all in all, a flat performance thanks to tamworth (as far as beating the closers went) but I reaped the rewards. Clearly the market got it spot on in the tamworth game and I got it badly wrong, both on timing and on the result!
At SP that was a dead on level evening - no profit. I managed it thanks to taking a decent slice of yeovil before the line moves.
As far as other asian books go - ibcbet are huge and have reliable lines, but don't allow non-referred accounts (so you can't just open one) - they have skin websites (the same prices) at mansion88, 12bet and fun88 - out of the three, the first 2 have limited me to 100 and 250 stakes respectively. The third one I don't have my own account with at the moment - apparently you can get 500s but little more.
I keep my ear to the ground - if there was any sign of unrest I'd be making an immediate withdrawal via moneybookers. My moneybookers account manager assures me she has personally visited offices of those mentioned above and moneybookers are satisfied with their operations and business models. Moneybookers are a lot more proactive like that these days. In another post one time I'll say a little more about the pointbet debacle from 2006.
Cheers
Adam
Worth mentioning 5dimes as well although the 2 downsides are i) having to bet in US$ and ii) the $500 limit ($250 on conference).
ReplyDeletecrewe beaten for a very weak midweek performance. Roll on saturday.
ReplyDeleteMany thanks for all your feedback on ratings and asian bookies. All very interesting, informative and helpful. What happened with pointbet that you mention? Cheers Mark
ReplyDeleteFor the record, I was on Crewe at 2.595, closed at 2.55. So far on all posted bets, I've beaten the closer by 1.35 points (regardless of winning or losing) which I am very pleased with.
ReplyDeleteHi Mark
ReplyDeleteThey went bust owing circa $5m worldwide. Might be a bit old to find stuff on google - I got stiffed for just about 10% of my bankroll at the time - not a happy day in my house.
Adam
Ouch!! You weren't caught out by Premierbet then? I lost a little there.
ReplyDeleteWhen do you produce your ratings for weekend fixtures? I suppose you have to wait until everyone has updated their's first? What would happen to your ratings if suddenly one of them stopped producing or publishing their ratings that you incorporate?
yes, I was caught by premierbet also but for less than 20% of the amount that I lost to pointbet.
ReplyDeleteI produce mine over the course of thursday. If one of the ratings that i use stopped producing, I would reweight the other filters and then overhaul the system and retest.
I appreciate that relying on third parties to any degree is a long way from ideal. However, at least one of them which I place the most weight on has made a total commitment to his ratings and isn't going anywhere anytime soon (I don't think anyway!).
In the medium term I am also going to work on a totally independent system and see what that comes up with. That's a summer job though!
The best independent system I know of (figures wise) bets in all euro leagues (well ones that there is any decent data available for, not ALL leagues obviously) and manages about 7-8% ROI. Nice figures if you can spread the risk among a lot of bets per week. But as I mentioned earlier I think this particular structure I put together has managed 30%+ this season; time will only tell if that's sustainable.
FTR the other guy's ratings I mentioned there had fulham at 1.50 to beat birmingham and he uses Kelly - so he must have been considerably exposed when Zamora scored! I've discussed with him how I don't think the use of Kelly is appropriate - but I am not sure the level to which he is staking. Obviously there is no chance that Fulham were a true 1/2 shot, and the reality is the correct price was probably somewhere between the two extremes, the closing line and the 1/2, but nearer the closer, of course.
Fulham at 1/2, I'm not sure what to make of that!! I assume you are paying for these ratings or are they freely available on the web? Anyway looking forward to what your ratings throw up for the weekend. I'll be keeping a special eye out for x2!! Good luck, Mark
ReplyDeleteHi Adam I was just checking in to see if your picks were up for this weekend. Can you give us (is there anyone else! A few more comments would be nice) some idea of when you would normally expect to put up your weekend a midweek picks. Good luck, Mark
ReplyDeleteHey Adam I was looking forward to your picks for the weekend. I've found this blog very intersting. I hope this isn't another of those blogs that stops before it's really started?
ReplyDelete