Friday, 12 February 2010

Time for a post

Right, looking to get more than one post a week going now.

Its been a tough week. A couple of big bets, one which I very much liked and won, one which I didn't like that lost, but that's the way it goes sometimes. I have looked through the big bets I've had this season, and there's been 67 of them in the prem and la liga. The spanish bets have shown very little edge, which is disappointing as its a league I've had a decent edge on in the past. The prem bets, there are 5 that I have had a strong feeling against. 2 have won and 3 have lost, so nothing conclusive (not that there would ever be anything conclusive in a sample of 5 bets!).

The upturn for the year that i described went up somewhere near 4k, then has settled down again at about 1k down. Its now becoming a fine balance - 6 weeks in it looks like it could be very tough to make any money maintaining this level of turnover (which is no surprise) - so I'll have to replace the turnover somehow (some arbitrage maybe - although that's also very boring and tough these days, although you can still get turnover by going after the tiny arbs I think) if I drop some of the stuff which looks like it has somewhere between a +2 and -2% edge.

Dabbling in the US sports again has started to have some success - thought I had put that to bed a few years ago when I was working 100-110 hours a week, but maybe not. Anything to get in front at the moment! Makes the 10k bet I missed even more painful, since with that under my belt I would be well in front for the year and confident. C'est la vie.


  1. Hi Adam thanks for the reply below. You don't give much away though, what was the 200/1 bet that got away?

    I don't really understand what you are doing. Why would you have a big bet, and what would you classify as a 'big' bet on something you have a strong feeling against, it doesn't make sense to me?

    Are you actually betting, trading or arbing?

    Good luck to you, Mark

  2. Hi Mark

    Thanks for the kind wishes. The 200/1 was a correct score bet. I track some of the good free info that there is out there on the internet - initially for turnover reasons (there's a multitude of reasons why I need to keep my betfair account at 2%) but now I am more committed to making it turn a profit.

    The majority of my profits come from betting. My initial start as far as sports betting go was back in 2003 and i started through arbitrage - although before that I was both a professional poker player and a professional fruit machine player for some time.

    In the past my highest bets have been in the 5 figure range, although my staking is not that high these days, for a couple of reasons - i) I used a lot of the money I had accumulated to buy a house - ii) I find it impossible to get the sort of value I was used to getting when getting those size bets on in that sort of volume these days.

    I also do a bit of trading - and its something I'm looking to expand on in the future. If my trades start looking worthwhile, I'll share some of them on the blog. I am reluctant to put anything on here that I'm not 100% sure will show a long-run profit - of course not every single bet can be a winner, but with a big edge, its more likely to win than not!

    Thanks for your comments


  3. Wow a professional fruit machine player, I've never heard of such a thing!! Did you have inside knowledge of when to play or something or are they all beatable when played 'correctly'? I tried poker for a while but although fairly sucessful I couldn't face having to do it full time and have the pressure of having to win.
    I'd be interested to see some of your trades on here. I'm might be missing the point but if you trade them it doesn't matter if they win or not does it? Good luck Mark

  4. There are still some out there, most live at the coast these days. No inside knowledge no, just judgement and skill and a huge edge over the "average" player. Its tough to beat a 22% margin but it can be tougher to beat the 1.5% margins at pinnacle, bizarrely enough.

    Becoming a pro at something you do as a hobby is no mean feat. It also means that you will almost certainly lose the enjoyment factor. I guess the top pros still enjoy themselves though.

    When I say "winning trade" i merely mean getting the direction right, not whether the team wins or loses, as that is, as you say, not relevant if you green up evenly. I'll try to put some up if I see the opportunity clearly.