Saturday, 27 February 2010

Weekend

Sorry for the late post - been a very very busy week from many points of view, not all gambling related (sadly!)

Wigan
Scunthorpe
QPR x 2
Sheff Wed
Watford
hartlepool
Bradford x 2
Dag & Red x 2
Rushden x 2 - beware, starts at midday
Tottenham x 2 (for tomorrow - again, look out on this one. Various team news factors, including how bad is this bug, who is in/out for both teams as they both have problems). For the record, I will bet it (especially since spurs are on the drift)
Chelsea
West Brom
York

When i have a spare 5 mins today I will also put up an accumulator bet for the afternoon. Theoretical edge on these could run into the 3 figures%, but there will be no doubt long long losing runs. Might be one just to follow on paper rather than bet.
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12 comments:

  1. mouldhouse27 February 2010 at 11:35

    Bradford
    Notts County
    Southampton
    Spurs
    Dagenham
    Rushden
    Kidderminster
    Chelsea
    West Brom
    York

    0.1 pt acca

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  2. mouldhouse27 February 2010 at 11:38

    IMPORTANT: OMIT KIDDERMINSTER.

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  3. Mark James27 February 2010 at 12:14

    Adam, you'd have looked at all the prices, where would you suggest putting on this accumalator? For the stake I'd use I would hope to be able to get it on at most books. Good to see you posting again....I thought you'd gone. I've backed your x2 selections. Fingers crossed, cheers Mark

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  4. mouldhouse27 February 2010 at 13:08

    Cheers Mark

    I put the acca on at one of the asian bookies - usually 188bet as they have the best parlay prices as a rule.

    I got 43.876 but omitted spurs as I can always put the winnings on spurs tomorrow if the other selections oblige!

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  5. Mark James27 February 2010 at 13:44

    Well I missed the Rushden and Chelsea kick offs so you can be confident of them!!

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  6. mouldhouse27 February 2010 at 14:51

    acca down twice in the first two games. damn

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  7. Mark James27 February 2010 at 17:04

    York!! So near, always the way

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  8. mouldhouse27 February 2010 at 17:24

    York drifted alarmingly, not sure if there was team news there. A shock result for sure.

    A very disappointing day. Even if spurs do win that won't make up for it.

    The level of some of the defeats is pretty disheartening as well!

    then again one outsider winning makes it an even day, 2 make it another of last weekend - so I don't think anything is wrong, holding firm on that one. Horrible day by the looks of it for me though.

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  9. Mark James27 February 2010 at 17:52

    What price did York start? It must have been a close thing between them and Chelsea as the shortest price of them all. I opened a 188Bet account, they were 1.5 in my acca. Do you think long term it would be better putting them on there or worth taking lesser prices and putting them on at one of those books that offers a free bet/refund for a let down by one team? I will get away with a small win if Tottenham do the business tomorrow with only doing the x2 stakes bets. Bad luck today, cheers Mark

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  10. Mark James27 February 2010 at 17:59

    When you do post up the picks could there or will there be other ones for Sunday? Like Morecambe in midweek.

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  11. mouldhouse27 February 2010 at 23:37

    Its unlikely there will be more to add to tottenham tomorrow.

    Re: your free bet offer. Its a tough one, would have to crunch the numbers. I'd look at the average book percentage at 188, and the average book percentage at your chosen book. 188 are probably betting to 104% with good prices on the home favs which we are likely to be backing. Other book to 107% or maybe 106. Doesn't sound like a huge amount of difference, but combined in an average 10-team coupon, its a big difference.

    If however the sweetener of stake back helps, maybe you should go for it - but its like insurance in blackjack - in the long run, you'll be paying for it.

    Given that the parlays could well be 50/1 - 100/1 shots on a regular basis, stake back doesn't do much for me. If I was going to have a go at places that offered stake back, I'd be looking to bet the minimum number of teams needed to qualify for the offer, and also I'd be looking to back when at least one or two are soft prices on the teams I want to back. But that's why I'd be banned within a few weeks :)

    I have york closers down at 1.53. They opened at 1.40ish so its quite significant. Then again very few teams should ever be 1.40 in the conference - I was let down today by Grays (I didn't post it since it didn't at least double qualify, but I was on at 9/1 - even they shouldn't be that sort of price away to that opposition) - so it may just be money talking like that. Altrincham were very short on the asian lines, 1.7x - 1.25 goals, but still 1.40 on betfair which would never happen in a premiership game for example, a real market inefficiency.

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  12. mouldhouse27 February 2010 at 23:37

    and well done just following the x2s - they should be stronger bets with a higher yield!

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