Posts
And into 2012 with a better outlook I suppose.
I'm not going to say there will be NO 2pt plays from now on. If there is something exceptional (as Burnley looked to me the other week and was a 2.5pt) that will be strong enough for a 2pt play. But expect lower volumes from now on.
Looks like a nice balance of shorter prices and a couple of decent punts today:
Colchester
Wigan
Everton
Gateshead
Southend
Watford
6 Plays is quite a lot (especially as we already have Charlton), things will get quieter as we go through the year now inevitably, and of course we are on winter break in many leagues.
Saturday, 31 December 2011
Thursday, 29 December 2011
early play for NYE
Will try to get more out early, especially when I think there will be money for the team in question (no guarantees!)
Charlton
Charlton
Wednesday, 28 December 2011
Tuesday, 27 December 2011
2012 and beyond
Results are continually mediocre, and it seems likely to me that a relatively "scattergun" approach which worked for me up until 2011 started, is having its problems.
I will list a few that I think there are:
i) Football ratings are now the "trendy" way to bet on football. Blogs pop up all the time, the models are not incredibly complex (although everyone has their nuances), extremely competent ones are even available for free online if you know where to look. They are all over SBC. There is also a tendency for the very best stuff not to make it out into the open market, of course.
ii) Books are getting smarter. They often delay pricing games until the first asian lines have come out. In the recent years the asian markets have got better and better (as one would expect) and those outlying 6/5 cases are becoming 11/10 and evens more often - the premiership bears this out more and more. Teams that used to be 6/5 regularly are much more often 2.04. Just as a few years ago the likes of Man Utd were at LEAST as superior c.f. their opponents as they are now, but you would take -1.5 to back them on the AH, not 1.75, 2 or more.
iii) The successful modellers get bigger and bigger bankrolls, and start betting earlier and earlier. I know a chap who bets on sunday, as soon as he can download the stats. Its all automated and I personally can't compete on that level. Even having said that, like almost all ratings players, he is struggling this season and is still making a net loss.
iv) services are now looking for other reasons for their poor(er) performances compared to the past, and are looking to cut each others throats on release times etc. That will inevitably end in tears, far more money pumped in by the sheep in the very early sensitive markets, most people will not get the prices released and rather than 10-40 people getting on early at the "proofed odds", it will be more like 2-8. This is why I have always proofed at closing lines, because they are the only fair gauge of what is really widely available. If Coral are 4/1 and the next best is 4.75, I don't have too much of a problem with it (although I will never get the 4/1). If they are 4/1 and the next is 10/3, and the average price is 10/3, then the problems will start, and claiming a 4/1 winner is only cheating the record (IMO). I respect the tipsters who proof at average prices on oddsportal or similar, or generally available prices, because they are actually achieveable for
Looking at my results for the season, and in the past, I am seeing a much better set of results from the best/strongest games. This has been borne out this year in the performance of the 1.5point and above bets. This is not a recurring pattern over the years however, which strongly suggests that this is variance. Its not news to me, and indeed backs up my own feelings about using Kelly, etc.
However, the strong bets have performed most consistently. I seek to provide a minimum of 5% ROI, otherwise I see no point sharing the bets with the blogosphere in the hopes that we can all make some profit. This seems to be best served by concentrating on the strongest bets, and making them yet stronger. I don't want to cut down to 75-100 bets per season particularly, because there is so much potential for variance to really rear its head, which is why i have always stuck with many more plays than some other sites.
There will always be a "backtesting" bias in the forms of modelling used. I have never seen the results from past histories replicated, which is why I strongly dislike a lot of the stuff that certain websites and forums churn out, especially when they don't make it 100% clear that "results" posted on a site are NOT results in action, but results of a model run over "new historical data". Its very misleading at least, if not wholeheartedly dishonest. I also would take any results not achieved within the last 24 months with a pinch of salt - the marketplace is dynamic, and it was very very much easier to make money in 2008 and before (from my own personal experience). Things move along quickly for the reasons above and other reasons. I would discount anything from 1-2 years ago quite keenly as well. Variance that is being exhibited is either 2+ Standard Devs away from the mean, or else the underlying assumptions are flawed. I favour the latter explanation, because this is not borne out in other forms of sports modelling in which I am involved. Yes, home and away wins can vary 6-8% per season, but that's nothing different from a number of other sports and areas that I have experienced.
It also makes more "sense" that there will be a handful of stronger plays rather than 10-15 glaring errors per matchday. The books do not give their money away. The strongest models use underlyings as only 30-40% of what they do, and there is a reason why these guys have built companies employing numerous quants - they are very very good at it. They are also using stats well beyond the capability of football-data etc.
So, I am going to look to become a LOT more stringent on play selection. Expect less plays of higher quality, and probably all of one unit only. I may well continue to track some plays, although I struggle to say the least with the results side of things, so I will have a think about this.
Here's to 2012 and putting on some points for the rest of this season, which has been tough so far for most in the soccer modelling game.
I will list a few that I think there are:
i) Football ratings are now the "trendy" way to bet on football. Blogs pop up all the time, the models are not incredibly complex (although everyone has their nuances), extremely competent ones are even available for free online if you know where to look. They are all over SBC. There is also a tendency for the very best stuff not to make it out into the open market, of course.
ii) Books are getting smarter. They often delay pricing games until the first asian lines have come out. In the recent years the asian markets have got better and better (as one would expect) and those outlying 6/5 cases are becoming 11/10 and evens more often - the premiership bears this out more and more. Teams that used to be 6/5 regularly are much more often 2.04. Just as a few years ago the likes of Man Utd were at LEAST as superior c.f. their opponents as they are now, but you would take -1.5 to back them on the AH, not 1.75, 2 or more.
iii) The successful modellers get bigger and bigger bankrolls, and start betting earlier and earlier. I know a chap who bets on sunday, as soon as he can download the stats. Its all automated and I personally can't compete on that level. Even having said that, like almost all ratings players, he is struggling this season and is still making a net loss.
iv) services are now looking for other reasons for their poor(er) performances compared to the past, and are looking to cut each others throats on release times etc. That will inevitably end in tears, far more money pumped in by the sheep in the very early sensitive markets, most people will not get the prices released and rather than 10-40 people getting on early at the "proofed odds", it will be more like 2-8. This is why I have always proofed at closing lines, because they are the only fair gauge of what is really widely available. If Coral are 4/1 and the next best is 4.75, I don't have too much of a problem with it (although I will never get the 4/1). If they are 4/1 and the next is 10/3, and the average price is 10/3, then the problems will start, and claiming a 4/1 winner is only cheating the record (IMO). I respect the tipsters who proof at average prices on oddsportal or similar, or generally available prices, because they are actually achieveable for
Looking at my results for the season, and in the past, I am seeing a much better set of results from the best/strongest games. This has been borne out this year in the performance of the 1.5point and above bets. This is not a recurring pattern over the years however, which strongly suggests that this is variance. Its not news to me, and indeed backs up my own feelings about using Kelly, etc.
However, the strong bets have performed most consistently. I seek to provide a minimum of 5% ROI, otherwise I see no point sharing the bets with the blogosphere in the hopes that we can all make some profit. This seems to be best served by concentrating on the strongest bets, and making them yet stronger. I don't want to cut down to 75-100 bets per season particularly, because there is so much potential for variance to really rear its head, which is why i have always stuck with many more plays than some other sites.
There will always be a "backtesting" bias in the forms of modelling used. I have never seen the results from past histories replicated, which is why I strongly dislike a lot of the stuff that certain websites and forums churn out, especially when they don't make it 100% clear that "results" posted on a site are NOT results in action, but results of a model run over "new historical data". Its very misleading at least, if not wholeheartedly dishonest. I also would take any results not achieved within the last 24 months with a pinch of salt - the marketplace is dynamic, and it was very very much easier to make money in 2008 and before (from my own personal experience). Things move along quickly for the reasons above and other reasons. I would discount anything from 1-2 years ago quite keenly as well. Variance that is being exhibited is either 2+ Standard Devs away from the mean, or else the underlying assumptions are flawed. I favour the latter explanation, because this is not borne out in other forms of sports modelling in which I am involved. Yes, home and away wins can vary 6-8% per season, but that's nothing different from a number of other sports and areas that I have experienced.
It also makes more "sense" that there will be a handful of stronger plays rather than 10-15 glaring errors per matchday. The books do not give their money away. The strongest models use underlyings as only 30-40% of what they do, and there is a reason why these guys have built companies employing numerous quants - they are very very good at it. They are also using stats well beyond the capability of football-data etc.
So, I am going to look to become a LOT more stringent on play selection. Expect less plays of higher quality, and probably all of one unit only. I may well continue to track some plays, although I struggle to say the least with the results side of things, so I will have a think about this.
Here's to 2012 and putting on some points for the rest of this season, which has been tough so far for most in the soccer modelling game.
Monday, 26 December 2011
Merry boxing day
and let's go into the new year with a bang.
Burnley x2
Crawley
Notts Forest
Reading
Wycombe x1.5
Looking at the relatively short prices, lets hope for a 60-80% (or even 100% santa?) strike rate.
Burnley x2
Crawley
Notts Forest
Reading
Wycombe x1.5
Looking at the relatively short prices, lets hope for a 60-80% (or even 100% santa?) strike rate.
Saturday, 24 December 2011
Tuesday, 20 December 2011
Midweek
One bet to kick us off - will comment with more later, games are not today but this one is:
WOLVES
WOLVES
Saturday, 17 December 2011
Weekend before Xmas
Looking forward to a break, not much enjoyment in breaking even.
Bristol Rovers
Burnley x1.5
Catania
Dundee Utd
Fiorentina x2
hearts x1.5
Middlesbrough
Newport
parma
Rotherham
Scunthorpe
St Mirren
Tranmere
Busy day, not at make or break stage yet, but would like a good result.
Bristol Rovers
Burnley x1.5
Catania
Dundee Utd
Fiorentina x2
hearts x1.5
Middlesbrough
Newport
parma
Rotherham
Scunthorpe
St Mirren
Tranmere
Busy day, not at make or break stage yet, but would like a good result.
Tuesday, 13 December 2011
Friday, 9 December 2011
Weekend Bets
Early post, very busy tomorrow!
Aldershot
Middlesbrough * 1.5
Oxford
Rayo
Rochdale
Rotherham
Siena
Sion
Southend
Lack of strong bets again. Fingers crossed. We are due some luck, still!
Aldershot
Middlesbrough * 1.5
Oxford
Rayo
Rochdale
Rotherham
Siena
Sion
Southend
Lack of strong bets again. Fingers crossed. We are due some luck, still!
Tuesday, 6 December 2011
Midweek bet
There were 2, but peterhead game postponed - here starts the winter terrors no doubt.
I know some are concerned about the performance of the weaker 1pt bets. At the moment the sample size is small this season and I am not overly worried. But of course, I offer no advice on placement, and what to do!
One bet tonight in the conference, a ratings favourite:
Bath.
Good luck if you play.
I know some are concerned about the performance of the weaker 1pt bets. At the moment the sample size is small this season and I am not overly worried. But of course, I offer no advice on placement, and what to do!
One bet tonight in the conference, a ratings favourite:
Bath.
Good luck if you play.
Saturday, 3 December 2011
Saturday
more of the same from midweek please!
Aberdeen
Birmingham
Burnley
Everton
Hearts
Malaga
Notts Forest
Valenciennes
Villarreal
Nothing strong enough for even a x1.5 play let alone a x2. Let's hope we have started a good run though, lord knows we are (over)due one!
Aberdeen
Birmingham
Burnley
Everton
Hearts
Malaga
Notts Forest
Valenciennes
Villarreal
Nothing strong enough for even a x1.5 play let alone a x2. Let's hope we have started a good run though, lord knows we are (over)due one!
Tuesday, 29 November 2011
Midweek
Shellshocked after a terrible weekend.
Burnley 11/10 (If you could get it, would be in a shop, or may drift - MIN PRICE 11/10 though, maybe just have a look at 7:30)
Forest Green
Millwall (MUST get the 4/5 MIN)
Newport x1.5 (MUST get 7/5 minimum, should be easy enough).
Lots of conditions tonight!
Burnley 11/10 (If you could get it, would be in a shop, or may drift - MIN PRICE 11/10 though, maybe just have a look at 7:30)
Forest Green
Millwall (MUST get the 4/5 MIN)
Newport x1.5 (MUST get 7/5 minimum, should be easy enough).
Lots of conditions tonight!
Saturday, 26 November 2011
Saturday bets
Decent win last night.
Aberdeen
Cagliari
Dundee United * 1.5
Huddersfield (monday)
Swansea * 2
Remarkably quiet, stakes small this weekend (for me), hence very few make the cut.
Aberdeen
Cagliari
Dundee United * 1.5
Huddersfield (monday)
Swansea * 2
Remarkably quiet, stakes small this weekend (for me), hence very few make the cut.
Friday, 25 November 2011
Friday bet
Short notice - sorry
Better last week. Hoping for more.
Borussia Monchengladbach (germany 1) game tonight is a bet.
Better last week. Hoping for more.
Borussia Monchengladbach (germany 1) game tonight is a bet.
Saturday, 19 November 2011
Saturday
Disappointing last night. Odds on bets have really not been kind to us this season.
Aldershot x 1.5
Bury
St Mirren x 1.5
Rochdale is a 1 pt bet at 7/2 or better ONLY
Scunthorpe (MUST be 10/11 or better)
Juventus
Tranmere
Gaziantepspor (turkey 1)
Rapid Vienna (austria 1)
Hope the odds ons are a little kinder today please!
Aldershot x 1.5
Bury
St Mirren x 1.5
Rochdale is a 1 pt bet at 7/2 or better ONLY
Scunthorpe (MUST be 10/11 or better)
Juventus
Tranmere
Gaziantepspor (turkey 1)
Rapid Vienna (austria 1)
Hope the odds ons are a little kinder today please!
Friday, 18 November 2011
Fri 18th Nov
One bet for tonight:
Tamworth (blue sq premier)
Should get 4/5 or perhaps a shade better on betfair depending on your commission.
Tamworth (blue sq premier)
Should get 4/5 or perhaps a shade better on betfair depending on your commission.
Friday, 11 November 2011
Tomorrow
Yes, its quiet, but there's one play:
Raith (scotland 1).
There's another one also, but its a very minor game - I will post it around 10:30am because posting even on here with few readers will affect the price, and I want to be on first of all!
Cheers
Raith (scotland 1).
There's another one also, but its a very minor game - I will post it around 10:30am because posting even on here with few readers will affect the price, and I want to be on first of all!
Cheers
Saturday, 5 November 2011
Remember remember
Let's hope we do, with a clean sweep.
Barnet x 1.5
Lincoln is ONLY a bet at 2.4 or better. 1.5 units if it gets there. 2 Units if it gets back to 6/4+
Leyton Orient
Peterboro - ONLY a bet at evens+, 1 unit if it is
Tamworth IF you can get 2/1 or better, 1 unit
York x 2 (no luck opposing wrexham so far this year, let's hope for some today)
Cartagena (spain 2)
Good luck if you play. May well be a quiet one as the price specific ones may not be available!
Barnet x 1.5
Lincoln is ONLY a bet at 2.4 or better. 1.5 units if it gets there. 2 Units if it gets back to 6/4+
Leyton Orient
Peterboro - ONLY a bet at evens+, 1 unit if it is
Tamworth IF you can get 2/1 or better, 1 unit
York x 2 (no luck opposing wrexham so far this year, let's hope for some today)
Cartagena (spain 2)
Good luck if you play. May well be a quiet one as the price specific ones may not be available!
Tuesday, 1 November 2011
November
Please be a better month than the last two?
Some steam tonight for one of my selections so, downgraded to a watch only.
ALDERSHOT is a 2 unit play at 6/5 or better. At current prices it is a ONE unit play.
Watford x2
Notts forest
Good luck if you play. Once again we back the porous Hornets. How I love football ratings!
Some steam tonight for one of my selections so, downgraded to a watch only.
ALDERSHOT is a 2 unit play at 6/5 or better. At current prices it is a ONE unit play.
Watford x2
Notts forest
Good luck if you play. Once again we back the porous Hornets. How I love football ratings!
Saturday, 29 October 2011
Weekend
So, a big drifter but a winner last night.
Todays fare:
Aldershot * 2.5 (really ticks the boxes!)
Cardiff (tomorrow, try to get 11/5)
Everton * 1.5
Millwall
Portsmouth (*2 at 11/5+, which was the inital quote, but price crash means only a one unit play unless it gets back out to those prices, which looks unlikely)
Sunderland * 1.5
Swindon
Watford
Sedan (france 2)
Cordoba (spain 2)
Todays fare:
Aldershot * 2.5 (really ticks the boxes!)
Cardiff (tomorrow, try to get 11/5)
Everton * 1.5
Millwall
Portsmouth (*2 at 11/5+, which was the inital quote, but price crash means only a one unit play unless it gets back out to those prices, which looks unlikely)
Sunderland * 1.5
Swindon
Watford
Sedan (france 2)
Cordoba (spain 2)
Friday, 28 October 2011
Tuesday, 25 October 2011
Midweek
Accrington
Cheltenham * 1.5
MK Dons * 1.5
Rochdale * 1.5
Tranmere * 2
Confident about tonight. No idea why!
Cheltenham * 1.5
MK Dons * 1.5
Rochdale * 1.5
Tranmere * 2
Confident about tonight. No idea why!
Sunday, 23 October 2011
Saturday, 22 October 2011
Sat 22 Oct
Hoping to continue the slightly better run of late.
Arsenal
Inverness Cali x 2
Macclesfield
Middlesbrough
Nice
Southend
Wolves (12:45 kickoff)
Good luck if you play
Arsenal
Inverness Cali x 2
Macclesfield
Middlesbrough
Nice
Southend
Wolves (12:45 kickoff)
Good luck if you play
Tuesday, 18 October 2011
Tonight, delay
Later blog today - 5:30 pm. One because I am still trying to climb on (some large personal wagers today) and two because I think some normality might revert to the prices of the teams I am looking at.
Yes, its going to be one of those where you ask "Really?" before you put the bets on!
More later
Yes, its going to be one of those where you ask "Really?" before you put the bets on!
More later
Saturday, 15 October 2011
Saturday Oct 15
Hopefully we are (over)due a good one. On another 4-1 last night, but this time the wrong end of it......
A large number of selections today but no bigger plays. The bigger plays have kept pace this season with the 1 unit selections doing poorly. Hopefully this will not continue and indeed that trend will be reversed today! Good luck if you play
burnley
cardiff
gillingham * 1.5
Hull
portsmouth
QPR
scunthorpe
tranmere
gaziantepspor - Turkey 1
anderlecht - Belgium 1
Helsingborgs - Sweden 1
A large number of selections today but no bigger plays. The bigger plays have kept pace this season with the 1 unit selections doing poorly. Hopefully this will not continue and indeed that trend will be reversed today! Good luck if you play
burnley
cardiff
gillingham * 1.5
Hull
portsmouth
QPR
scunthorpe
tranmere
gaziantepspor - Turkey 1
anderlecht - Belgium 1
Helsingborgs - Sweden 1
Friday, 14 October 2011
Friday night bet possible
Lincoln are on the drift tonight against fleetwood after early support.
IF and only IF you can get 12/5 or better before kickoff, its a bet (1pt)
Good luck if they do drift further and you play.
IF and only IF you can get 12/5 or better before kickoff, its a bet (1pt)
Good luck if they do drift further and you play.
Tuesday, 11 October 2011
Midweek
2 bets, one strong one:
Grimsby x2 (should get close to 5/6 betfair, try for 4/5 otherwise which is at a couple of places).
Stockport
Grimsby is half and half, I have it down as a steamer but its come in from 10/11 or slightly bigger already, I don't think it will drift much.
Stockport i am sticking my neck on the line and say they are going to drift a bit. 6/5 is ok but try 5/4 or even better on betfair later on.
Good luck if you play. We are surely due some.
Grimsby x2 (should get close to 5/6 betfair, try for 4/5 otherwise which is at a couple of places).
Stockport
Grimsby is half and half, I have it down as a steamer but its come in from 10/11 or slightly bigger already, I don't think it will drift much.
Stockport i am sticking my neck on the line and say they are going to drift a bit. 6/5 is ok but try 5/4 or even better on betfair later on.
Good luck if you play. We are surely due some.
Saturday, 8 October 2011
2nd Weekend Oct
Poor midweek, Samp did it the italian way, get one up, sit back, inevitable equalizer, lack of ambition to go for the three points. Hey ho.
Aldershot (single bet, x1.5 if EVENS or better is available)
Carlisle
Notts County x1.5 (if you can get 11/10 or better it becomes x2.5, and hence biggest bet of the season so far)
Swindon
Brommapojkarna (sunday, sweden division 2)
Also a 0.1 5-fold seems wise, would not be surprised if we could pull off a clean sweep this weekend with the light action.
Aldershot (single bet, x1.5 if EVENS or better is available)
Carlisle
Notts County x1.5 (if you can get 11/10 or better it becomes x2.5, and hence biggest bet of the season so far)
Swindon
Brommapojkarna (sunday, sweden division 2)
Also a 0.1 5-fold seems wise, would not be surprised if we could pull off a clean sweep this weekend with the light action.
Wednesday, 5 October 2011
Saturday, 1 October 2011
First Weekend October
Going to win today. Winning start to the weekend, albeit at a short price yesterday.
Dagenham * 1.5
Gillingham
Ipswich * 1.5
Luton (ONLY IF IT DRIFTS TO 1/2 OR BETTER - CHECK AT 2:45 PM UK Time)
Peterboro * 1.5
Portsmouth
Scunthorpe
Athletic Bilbao (spain)
Udinese (Italy)
Good luck if you follow. Let's hope October is a strong month, not sorry to see the back of September AT ALL!!!!
Dagenham * 1.5
Gillingham
Ipswich * 1.5
Luton (ONLY IF IT DRIFTS TO 1/2 OR BETTER - CHECK AT 2:45 PM UK Time)
Peterboro * 1.5
Portsmouth
Scunthorpe
Athletic Bilbao (spain)
Udinese (Italy)
Good luck if you follow. Let's hope October is a strong month, not sorry to see the back of September AT ALL!!!!
Friday, 30 September 2011
early start to the weekend
Heracles (holland) is a bet - game is today 7pm - try to get the 1/2 that's on offer.
GL if you follow
GL if you follow
Tuesday, 27 September 2011
Midweek action
alfreton
Barnsley
burnley x 2
luton x 1.5
Tamworth
Hoping for fortune change!
Good luck if you play
Barnsley
burnley x 2
luton x 1.5
Tamworth
Hoping for fortune change!
Good luck if you play
Saturday, 24 September 2011
Today's bets
Getting close to the thick of things now, couple more weeks and all divisions will be at our mercy (hopefully!)
Strike rate has been appalling, when it picks up results will improve. Hopefully its our "turn" for a better day today.
Birmingham
Bournemouth x 1.5
Middlesbrough
Millwall x 1.5
Peterborough
Port Vale
Scunthorpe x 2
Shrewsbury
ADO Den Haag - Holland
Gaziantepspor (Turkey)
Plymouth - UK!
From the first group, aside from Posh which is our one big underdog stab, an acca looks possible. Recommending 0.1 pts acca brum x bournemouth x boro x millwall x port vale x scunthorpe x shrewsbury. Www.oddsportal.com is a great site to find the best price for the acca.
Good luck if you follow
Strike rate has been appalling, when it picks up results will improve. Hopefully its our "turn" for a better day today.
Birmingham
Bournemouth x 1.5
Middlesbrough
Millwall x 1.5
Peterborough
Port Vale
Scunthorpe x 2
Shrewsbury
ADO Den Haag - Holland
Gaziantepspor (Turkey)
Plymouth - UK!
From the first group, aside from Posh which is our one big underdog stab, an acca looks possible. Recommending 0.1 pts acca brum x bournemouth x boro x millwall x port vale x scunthorpe x shrewsbury. Www.oddsportal.com is a great site to find the best price for the acca.
Good luck if you follow
Saturday, 17 September 2011
Weekend
Action is hotting up.
Accrington x2
Aldershot
Alfreton
Bury
Carlisle
Cheltenham
Millwall (12:30 - sorry for late notice)
Watford
Twente - Holland
Az Alkmaar - Holland
Tromso - Norway
Atl Bilbao - Spain
All non-UK games are tomorrow.
Good luck if you follow. Hopefully earlier post next week - my intended routine last night was disrupted.
Accrington x2
Aldershot
Alfreton
Bury
Carlisle
Cheltenham
Millwall (12:30 - sorry for late notice)
Watford
Twente - Holland
Az Alkmaar - Holland
Tromso - Norway
Atl Bilbao - Spain
All non-UK games are tomorrow.
Good luck if you follow. Hopefully earlier post next week - my intended routine last night was disrupted.
Tuesday, 13 September 2011
Midweek Efforts
Fairly quiet.
Hoping for a comeback after a poor weekend.
Northampton x2 (look to get 9/4 at least, there is better out there)
Cheltenham
Colchester
Accrington
Good luck if you play
Hoping for a comeback after a poor weekend.
Northampton x2 (look to get 9/4 at least, there is better out there)
Cheltenham
Colchester
Accrington
Good luck if you play
Saturday, 10 September 2011
Bets 10 Sep 2011
Aldershot
Carlisle
Dagenham
Luton (should get 4/6)
Lincoln
Northampton
Istanbul BB (Buyuksehir) - turkey
Feyenoord - holland
Genclerbirligi - turkey
Newport
Good luck if you follow
Carlisle
Dagenham
Luton (should get 4/6)
Lincoln
Northampton
Istanbul BB (Buyuksehir) - turkey
Feyenoord - holland
Genclerbirligi - turkey
Newport
Good luck if you follow
Saturday, 3 September 2011
Bet
Valladolid (spain 2)
Aim for 1.60+. There is 1.65 depending on stake and bookies that you have accounts with!
Proofed at 1.60
Good luck if you play.
Aim for 1.60+. There is 1.65 depending on stake and bookies that you have accounts with!
Proofed at 1.60
Good luck if you play.
New season
Stand by for a post - just getting the rest of my stake down.
Probably only one bet. There will be extra caution until we are 8 games in.
Probably only one bet. There will be extra caution until we are 8 games in.
Saturday, 14 May 2011
Today
Apologies for no posts for 2 weeks. End of season is a period where I feel personally there is a lot on the table, but its more based on my personal judgement than solid figures backing it up - there are dynamics at work that see a lot of differing prices, even from year to year - for example, this year Dortmund were available early on last week at 3.85 because they had won the league, in a game where they would have been 2.25 ish under normal circumstances (and still been a bet); however, by the off they had been bet back in to 2.80. They aren't the sort of selections I am looking to put up, and indeed some of my decent winners in the last couple of weeks have crashed in price quite a bit and are very tough to get on at this time of year.
That theme is continuing - St Johnstone look a good bet on numbers away at St Mirren, but the money has taken them down 1/2 point already - so I won't put it up as a bet. I'll be watching myself and betting my own stuff but not putting anything on the blog. Its a learning experience. Teams like Fulham look like a solid bet away at birmingham tomorrow, but there's a big motivational factor (combined with the relative scarcity of away wins by mid-range teams in the prem, and birmingham's decent home record).
I will be putting up any particularly strong bets in the swedish and other scandinavian leagues over the summer, periodically, and updating the blog record as well.
That theme is continuing - St Johnstone look a good bet on numbers away at St Mirren, but the money has taken them down 1/2 point already - so I won't put it up as a bet. I'll be watching myself and betting my own stuff but not putting anything on the blog. Its a learning experience. Teams like Fulham look like a solid bet away at birmingham tomorrow, but there's a big motivational factor (combined with the relative scarcity of away wins by mid-range teams in the prem, and birmingham's decent home record).
I will be putting up any particularly strong bets in the swedish and other scandinavian leagues over the summer, periodically, and updating the blog record as well.
Saturday, 30 April 2011
30th April
Arsenal
Bury
Brighton
Eastbourne
Tranmere
Eastbourne liquidity is extremely weak, I will put a minimum of 9/2 on this selection (available at a few places at that and 5.6 at asian books)
Bury
Brighton
Eastbourne
Tranmere
Eastbourne liquidity is extremely weak, I will put a minimum of 9/2 on this selection (available at a few places at that and 5.6 at asian books)
Monday, 25 April 2011
Saturday, 23 April 2011
Friday, 22 April 2011
Good Friday
Can not foresee many bets over Easter, if they are they will appear in drips and drabs.
One for today:
Oldham
GL
One for today:
Oldham
GL
Tuesday, 19 April 2011
Midweek underdogs
2 bets:
Darlington
Newcastle
Motivational factors are starting to heavily influence things. How manchester united can be 1.7 away at newcastle, this season, i have absolutely no clue. Far too big.
You should be looking for 10/3 darlo minimum and 5/1 newcastle - both are bigger on betfair.
Darlington
Newcastle
Motivational factors are starting to heavily influence things. How manchester united can be 1.7 away at newcastle, this season, i have absolutely no clue. Far too big.
You should be looking for 10/3 darlo minimum and 5/1 newcastle - both are bigger on betfair.
Saturday, 16 April 2011
Weekend bet
Yes, bet in the singular:
Everton
An amazing lack of consensus on the methods that I use to generate the stronger picks.....usually not a good sign, but everton look on my numbers to be closer to 4/7 than 8/11.
Everton
An amazing lack of consensus on the methods that I use to generate the stronger picks.....usually not a good sign, but everton look on my numbers to be closer to 4/7 than 8/11.
Saturday, 9 April 2011
Wednesday, 6 April 2011
One more pick
Also I am already filled on Helsingborgs (Sweden 1) to beat Elfsborg. You should aim for 13/10 again although there is 2.35 at expekt if you bet there.
First picks for weekend 9 April
Going to start trying to post a few once I am on, and expect the price to contract. I won't go as far as to say I will post play-by-play so there will still be some posts with multiple picks on.
Price won't last (IMO) if you can get Swansea at 13/10 (tote), either way I am making Swansea a selection.
Price won't last (IMO) if you can get Swansea at 13/10 (tote), either way I am making Swansea a selection.
Tuesday, 5 April 2011
Minor midweek
One pick tonight:
Plymouth.
Comes from a subset of picks since 2008 that have yielded around the 50% ROI mark (yes, you read it right) - but that's no guarantee of success (indeed, Hayes at the weekend was from the same subset).
Plymouth.
Comes from a subset of picks since 2008 that have yielded around the 50% ROI mark (yes, you read it right) - but that's no guarantee of success (indeed, Hayes at the weekend was from the same subset).
Saturday, 2 April 2011
Sat 2nd April
Ac Milan
Accrington
Bolton
Everton
Gillingham
Hayes
Mallorca
Reading
Port Vale
West Brom
Dropping multiple stakes for the rest of the season, because stakes should not be too aggressive at this stage. Motivational factors start to creep in, and whilst IMO they are vastly overcompensated for and overbet (historically I have done well in may just using raw ratings, which really should not happen if motivation is as important as the market thinks it is), I do not make allowances for them and thus all picks from hereon in until the end of English seasons will be 1pt.
Accrington
Bolton
Everton
Gillingham
Hayes
Mallorca
Reading
Port Vale
West Brom
Dropping multiple stakes for the rest of the season, because stakes should not be too aggressive at this stage. Motivational factors start to creep in, and whilst IMO they are vastly overcompensated for and overbet (historically I have done well in may just using raw ratings, which really should not happen if motivation is as important as the market thinks it is), I do not make allowances for them and thus all picks from hereon in until the end of English seasons will be 1pt.
Friday, 1 April 2011
Friday 1st April
Not an april fool, but after a quiet time following international football (and childbirth) one pick for tonight:
Lech Poznan (Poland)
Good luck if you play
Lech Poznan (Poland)
Good luck if you play
Friday, 25 March 2011
Weekend Football
Just a quick note about tomorrow. Looking over things there is nothing that appears strong enough to be a bet yet, and there is the possibility there won't be any bets tomorrow. Update in the morning.
Cheers
Cheers
Saturday, 19 March 2011
Tuesday, 15 March 2011
Midweek and looking for feedback
One game of interest:
Notts County
I'm thinking about posting up more bets as they develop, rather than (almost all the time nowadays it seems) waiting for the odds to crash and posting at lower value on gameday (see kaiserslautern, for example, and many other bets in recent times).
I still think the bets will make money at the closing lines, but it makes no sense NOT to post at what I think will be the best price.
I may also indicate sometimes when I think it could drift.
If there was enough interest (and I doubt there is!) I could also tweet when new picks are posted, so that you can set up a free SMS from twitter if you like.
Any thoughts on the above (not including comments about delusions of grandeur over how many followers I have, I'm sure you can count them on one hand) would be welcomed.
Any horse racing fans, have a great day today and a feast at the festival. Hope you smash the books to pieces.
Notts County
I'm thinking about posting up more bets as they develop, rather than (almost all the time nowadays it seems) waiting for the odds to crash and posting at lower value on gameday (see kaiserslautern, for example, and many other bets in recent times).
I still think the bets will make money at the closing lines, but it makes no sense NOT to post at what I think will be the best price.
I may also indicate sometimes when I think it could drift.
If there was enough interest (and I doubt there is!) I could also tweet when new picks are posted, so that you can set up a free SMS from twitter if you like.
Any thoughts on the above (not including comments about delusions of grandeur over how many followers I have, I'm sure you can count them on one hand) would be welcomed.
Any horse racing fans, have a great day today and a feast at the festival. Hope you smash the books to pieces.
Saturday, 12 March 2011
Sat 12 Mar
Blog shouldn't go quiet as I will get someone else to post for me most likely - but wife is 40 weeks+ pregnant now so if it is quiet for a week or so, you'll understand why!
Today:
Rushden x 1.5
Roma x 1.5
Osasuna
Nurnberg
Kaiserslautern
Genoa
Carlisle
Today:
Rushden x 1.5
Roma x 1.5
Osasuna
Nurnberg
Kaiserslautern
Genoa
Carlisle
Tuesday, 8 March 2011
March 8th
Just one bet, note price
Rushden (get 4/6 at least, bigger at asian books and exchanges)
Good luck
Rushden (get 4/6 at least, bigger at asian books and exchanges)
Good luck
Saturday, 5 March 2011
Tuesday, 1 March 2011
01 March 11
In a bid to fix what's gone wrong in the last couple of months, I've taken apart a number of things.
The conclusion I can come to (when looking back on numerous times we have been chinned from 2 and 3 goals in front) is - nothing is wrong, but variance is at work, and it can be an evil evil beast.
It may well be that there is a major period of correction upwards before the end of the season, but there are no guarantees.
In looking for some fixes though, I am going to endeavour to cut out any chaff bets which have been no more than makeweights over the recent times. It will be clear what these bets are in the fullness of time.
Two for midweek:
Osasuna
Hayes
Taking on AFC again!
Good luck if you play
The conclusion I can come to (when looking back on numerous times we have been chinned from 2 and 3 goals in front) is - nothing is wrong, but variance is at work, and it can be an evil evil beast.
It may well be that there is a major period of correction upwards before the end of the season, but there are no guarantees.
In looking for some fixes though, I am going to endeavour to cut out any chaff bets which have been no more than makeweights over the recent times. It will be clear what these bets are in the fullness of time.
Two for midweek:
Osasuna
Hayes
Taking on AFC again!
Good luck if you play
Saturday, 26 February 2011
Sat 26 Feb
Sorry for late post
Levante
Millwall x1.5
Bury x2.5
Rushden x1.5
Newcastle x2
Newport x1.5
Some smaller stakes than they would have been due to gambles taking value off the table.
Levante
Millwall x1.5
Bury x2.5
Rushden x1.5
Newcastle x2
Newport x1.5
Some smaller stakes than they would have been due to gambles taking value off the table.
Tuesday, 22 February 2011
22 Feb 11
There was a chap who used to (not sure if he still does, I don't bother with it anymore) on the betfair forums called HWB.
On further investigation it came to light that the HWB stood for Hate West Brom. Now I'm fairly sure that this was because he was a Wolves fan, but if he needed some company, I'm sure followers of this blog would provide it. Another game where they dominated the stats, and another no-result. Its extremely frustrating - West Brom have dominated 14 home games this season, and only converted 5 into victories. History suggests a closer approximation to how many they "should" have won would be 9 games. To be 4 games away in a small sample is not an amazing surprise, but it is a few standard deviations away from the mean, to say the least.
Unluckiest team in the prem? In England? Shoot on sight policy warping the stats? Another reason? Comments welcome on this issue!
A very slim midweek card - there just isn't much value on the table in these fixtures according to my numbers.
Derby
Wrexham
Carlisle x1.5
On further investigation it came to light that the HWB stood for Hate West Brom. Now I'm fairly sure that this was because he was a Wolves fan, but if he needed some company, I'm sure followers of this blog would provide it. Another game where they dominated the stats, and another no-result. Its extremely frustrating - West Brom have dominated 14 home games this season, and only converted 5 into victories. History suggests a closer approximation to how many they "should" have won would be 9 games. To be 4 games away in a small sample is not an amazing surprise, but it is a few standard deviations away from the mean, to say the least.
Unluckiest team in the prem? In England? Shoot on sight policy warping the stats? Another reason? Comments welcome on this issue!
A very slim midweek card - there just isn't much value on the table in these fixtures according to my numbers.
Derby
Wrexham
Carlisle x1.5
Saturday, 19 February 2011
19 feb 2011
Slowing down a little, but that's inevitable as mistakes are less likely until we reach the silly season.
WBA x 2.5 (they owe, to say the least)
eastbourne x 1.5
tamworth x 1.5
killie x 2
hearts x 1.5
rushden x 2.5
brest
las palmas (spain division 2)
Going to be posting the occasional one from slightly more bizarre leagues. I recommend getting them on at betfair/pinnacle depending on your stakes because they might attract more unwanted attention at "standard" bookmakers. Leagues like switzerland, scandinavian leagues - only very sporadic plays anyway.
WBA x 2.5 (they owe, to say the least)
eastbourne x 1.5
tamworth x 1.5
killie x 2
hearts x 1.5
rushden x 2.5
brest
las palmas (spain division 2)
Going to be posting the occasional one from slightly more bizarre leagues. I recommend getting them on at betfair/pinnacle depending on your stakes because they might attract more unwanted attention at "standard" bookmakers. Leagues like switzerland, scandinavian leagues - only very sporadic plays anyway.
Tuesday, 15 February 2011
Friday, 11 February 2011
Weekend 12 Feb
Not around tomorrow (grrrr!) so hopefully tonight was a good start to a positive weekend.
Villarreal
WBA x4
Stoke x1.5
Catania x1.5
Notts co x1.5
Crawley x1.5
Kidderminster 4/7 MINIMUM (CORAL COUPON or wait for a drift)
Stevenage
Man Utd
Barrow x2
Cambridge
Hartlepool x1.5
Fleetwood x1.5
Eastbourne x1.5
Blackpool x2
Rushden x2
Villarreal
WBA x4
Stoke x1.5
Catania x1.5
Notts co x1.5
Crawley x1.5
Kidderminster 4/7 MINIMUM (CORAL COUPON or wait for a drift)
Stevenage
Man Utd
Barrow x2
Cambridge
Hartlepool x1.5
Fleetwood x1.5
Eastbourne x1.5
Blackpool x2
Rushden x2
Late notice sorry
Other weekend bets later or very early tomorrow morning.
one for tonight (sorry!)
Burton x 1.5
one for tonight (sorry!)
Burton x 1.5
Monday, 7 February 2011
Midweek 7-9 Feb
Looks like a strong likelihood of no bets. Nothing I like in the midweek UK card anyway.
Saturday, 5 February 2011
05 feb 11
We did well at this stage last season from here to the end.
Here's hoping for more of the same.
Macclesfield x1.5
Fleetwood x1.5
Osasuna
Rushden x1.5
Notts co x1.5
Southampton x1.5
Southend
Montpellier x2
Zaragoza
Getafe
Here's hoping for more of the same.
Macclesfield x1.5
Fleetwood x1.5
Osasuna
Rushden x1.5
Notts co x1.5
Southampton x1.5
Southend
Montpellier x2
Zaragoza
Getafe
Tuesday, 1 February 2011
Midweek 1 Feb
Fleetwood
York x2
Rushden x2.5
West Brom x1.5
Kilmarnock
Good luck if you play - perhaps more tomorrow.
York x2
Rushden x2.5
West Brom x1.5
Kilmarnock
Good luck if you play - perhaps more tomorrow.
Saturday, 29 January 2011
29/1/11
Going to have a very close examination and look whether to continue with january football once the transfer window really starts interfering with things. Toss in the amount of managerial changes and the inevitable shaking up of squads and its easy enough to argue that at the very best an edge is eroded in january to levels whereby its better to pass on the action.
We were strong from feb last year so still hoping for a good runin, to finish betting for the season at 5% yield. Hopefully that's achieveable.
TODAY:
Walsall x2.5
Swindon x1.5
Oxford x1.5
Norwich x1.5
Lazio
Cagliari x1.5
Genoa x1.5
We were strong from feb last year so still hoping for a good runin, to finish betting for the season at 5% yield. Hopefully that's achieveable.
TODAY:
Walsall x2.5
Swindon x1.5
Oxford x1.5
Norwich x1.5
Lazio
Cagliari x1.5
Genoa x1.5
Tuesday, 25 January 2011
25/1/11
Some price movements mean limited action tonight:
Gillingham (get 5/4 or better)
Wigan x1.5
Hayes (get 13/8 or better)
Fleetwood (get 5/4 or better)
Hearts x2
Yeovil
Gillingham (get 5/4 or better)
Wigan x1.5
Hayes (get 13/8 or better)
Fleetwood (get 5/4 or better)
Hearts x2
Yeovil
Saturday, 22 January 2011
22/1/11 part deux
Southampton x1.5 (4/6 min)
Swindon x2 (6/4 min)
Mainz
Reading x1.5
Rotherham
Millwall x1.5 (9/2 min. Millwall were rumoured to have a lot of players out, they don't look in too bad shape and this is a big price. Normally opposing team news gambles like this is profitable in my experience).
Fiorentina
Hibernian x1.5
newcastle x1.5
bournemouth x1.5 (drifting)
Rushden x2 (3/1 min, price is at ladbrokes, its been bet heavily, so only bet if it comes back out if you can't get ladbrokes prices)
Swindon x2 (6/4 min)
Mainz
Reading x1.5
Rotherham
Millwall x1.5 (9/2 min. Millwall were rumoured to have a lot of players out, they don't look in too bad shape and this is a big price. Normally opposing team news gambles like this is profitable in my experience).
Fiorentina
Hibernian x1.5
newcastle x1.5
bournemouth x1.5 (drifting)
Rushden x2 (3/1 min, price is at ladbrokes, its been bet heavily, so only bet if it comes back out if you can't get ladbrokes prices)
Tuesday, 18 January 2011
Midweek 18/1/11
Slim as promised. I am doing some extra pruning in general so the quantity of selections should reduce but the yield increase. I don't think the overall amount of profit should change drastically, but the swings should be smaller, which makes it easier to follow (I hope) since it shouldn't test your temperament SO much.
Gateshead (11/10 min)
Tamworth (6/5) - price is tough to get, but they are drifting and could easily get bigger, so if you can't get it, try later.
hearts x1.5
grimsby x2 (4/6 min)
Good luck
Gateshead (11/10 min)
Tamworth (6/5) - price is tough to get, but they are drifting and could easily get bigger, so if you can't get it, try later.
hearts x1.5
grimsby x2 (4/6 min)
Good luck
Monday, 17 January 2011
Today and midweek
It looks very slim pickings, i'll post anything in the morning.
Beware before following my picks this week though, look at today's P and L on horse racing:
Horse Racing: £666.66
Freaky.
Beware before following my picks this week though, look at today's P and L on horse racing:
Horse Racing: £666.66
Freaky.
Saturday, 15 January 2011
15/1/11
I've been disappointed in general with this season's results, and after the update, whilst you should easily beat the yield on here given the proofing is only with the professional books, its still not to the required standard.
I'll have to go with a "less is more" approach and try to post earlier to make sure the value hasn't been sucked out by the time anyone who is trying to get on is on.
Here we go:
Napoli x2.5
Stevenage x3
West Brom x3.5
Carlisle x1.5
Hearts x2
Stoke x3
Dagenham x1.5
Getafe x1.5
Nurnberg x2
Kaiserslautern
Montpellier x2
Hoffenheim
Wolves AT 12/1 OR BETTER ONLY (betfair maybe best route)
Mainz
Portsmouth x0.5 AT 5/1 OR BETTER ONLY (ditto above)
I like the shape of this weekend, a lot of homes around evens which I make a fair bit shorter. Get best prices as always of course.
I'll have to go with a "less is more" approach and try to post earlier to make sure the value hasn't been sucked out by the time anyone who is trying to get on is on.
Here we go:
Napoli x2.5
Stevenage x3
West Brom x3.5
Carlisle x1.5
Hearts x2
Stoke x3
Dagenham x1.5
Getafe x1.5
Nurnberg x2
Kaiserslautern
Montpellier x2
Hoffenheim
Wolves AT 12/1 OR BETTER ONLY (betfair maybe best route)
Mainz
Portsmouth x0.5 AT 5/1 OR BETTER ONLY (ditto above)
I like the shape of this weekend, a lot of homes around evens which I make a fair bit shorter. Get best prices as always of course.
Friday, 14 January 2011
Wednesday, 12 January 2011
12/1/11
Not such a nice date, let's hope for nicer football. Was even on the (rumoured fix) 2-2 in tamworth vs newport (was also on newport, who were 2-1 up). 2-2 very late on then a red card and a goal for tamworth (was also on 3-3) who then held on to win 3-2. That's the sort of luck over the last few days, but it turns around
One from tonight's:
Motherwell.
One from tonight's:
Motherwell.
Tuesday, 11 January 2011
11/1/11
What a nice date.
Walsall x1.5
Histon
Good luck if you play, high probability it will be a losing night, but good value. You can't eat value, but at the prices the teams have to be worth a poke.
Walsall x1.5
Histon
Good luck if you play, high probability it will be a losing night, but good value. You can't eat value, but at the prices the teams have to be worth a poke.
Saturday, 8 January 2011
8/1/11
Newport
Luton
Fleetwood x1.5
Rushden x2.5
Morecambe x2
Yeovil x1.5
Dag x1.5
Sociedad
Barrow
Good luck today!
Luton
Fleetwood x1.5
Rushden x2.5
Morecambe x2
Yeovil x1.5
Dag x1.5
Sociedad
Barrow
Good luck today!
Wednesday, 5 January 2011
One more for tonight
Got distracted and was not thinking straight when I put that post up earlier! One more for tonight:
Sunderland.
Good luck
Sunderland.
Good luck
5/1/11
Aside from bets already advised and (hopefully!) placed, just going to add one more for tonight as I feel the value has already been sucked out of the other ones:
Newcastle
Good luck
Newcastle
Good luck
5/1/11
Tonight's games have some potential bets - however the prices are again moving with me so I will be keeping a careful eye on them and putting a post up at 7pm sharp with either a couple of bets or no bets.
Monday, 3 January 2011
3/1/11
Leicester x1.5
Southend x1.5
Bournemouth
Swindon x2.5
Brighton
Oldham x1.5
walsall x2.5 (4/1 or better)
carlisle x1.5
Bury
Oxford x1.5
mansfield x1.5
rushden x2
liverpool
cagliari
dag
yeovil
accrington
Southend x1.5
Bournemouth
Swindon x2.5
Brighton
Oldham x1.5
walsall x2.5 (4/1 or better)
carlisle x1.5
Bury
Oxford x1.5
mansfield x1.5
rushden x2
liverpool
cagliari
dag
yeovil
accrington
Today's picks
If January is poor this year, there will be a winter break next year for me.
Hoping that's not the case! Although a month off would be fantastic.
Todays will be posted around 1pm, sorry for delay, huge backlog with all these compressed fixtures.
Hoping that's not the case! Although a month off would be fantastic.
Todays will be posted around 1pm, sorry for delay, huge backlog with all these compressed fixtures.
Saturday, 1 January 2011
1/1/11 mark 2
Southampton x3 (1/2 or better only)
Sunderland x4
forest green
Cardiff
Bury x1.5
Millwall x2.5
Burnley x1.5
Kilmarnock x2
Zaragoza
Ipswich
Yeovil x2.5
Inverness
Stevenage
Newport x1.5 (8/15 or better only)
Wigan x1.5 (may drift)
Stoke
Orient (1pm kickoff, sorry)
I'm disappointed with the yield this season so I am applying some extra conditions to blog bets before posting. Hopefully this will see things go back over the magic 10% figure.
Good luck
Sunderland x4
forest green
Cardiff
Bury x1.5
Millwall x2.5
Burnley x1.5
Kilmarnock x2
Zaragoza
Ipswich
Yeovil x2.5
Inverness
Stevenage
Newport x1.5 (8/15 or better only)
Wigan x1.5 (may drift)
Stoke
Orient (1pm kickoff, sorry)
I'm disappointed with the yield this season so I am applying some extra conditions to blog bets before posting. Hopefully this will see things go back over the magic 10% figure.
Good luck
1/1/11
Happy new year to all
Sorry for late post - was behind on prep work.
To get us started - Early kickoffs - WBA x 1.5
Sorry for late post - was behind on prep work.
To get us started - Early kickoffs - WBA x 1.5
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)