Monday, 8 March 2010

Midweek Picks

Portsmouth x 2

Slim pickings from a slim card. Pompey in would generate a profit anyway on its own. Salisbuty are a real headscratcher of a price, I've got a fair bit on over 6/1. They aren't great and york are a decent team but 6s seems silly to me.

Good luck if you play, don't risk anything that would make any difference to you!


  1. Midweek small acca

    Notts co

  2. 5dimes prices will be very tough to beat for these parlays, or pinnacle, since they don't charge any extra "juice". I just got 14.647 at 5dimes, 188 was only 13.919. Pinn don't allow eng L2 and below in their accas - they are certainly missing a trick there!

  3. Wow!! That's put your stats well in the positive, despite the 2x missing :(. Very well done with those picks and the acca. One question why would a team be in your picks but not in the acca and vice versa? I'm going to have to make sure I hang around until midnight on Friday for your picks! Again nice work, cheers Mark

  4. Thanks Mark

    hmmm. I'll give the best response I can.

    I wouldn't put up picks that haven't shown the big yields to me in the past. I don't think they'll hit 30% in the future but I have a good idea that we have some margin to play with. Its a mix of short odds and the (IMO) monster value underdogs that keeps the strike rate high enough with some bumper underdog payouts.

    The teams in the acca haven't shown those sorts of yields. They tend to be "likely winners" but not the sort of bets that are going to put together double digit yields if bet as singles in the long run. Therefore to get to the big yields I'm happy to put them up as very small stakes accumulators, since the combination of the advantage could have, as i alluded to earlier, a yield in even three figures maybe (I hope!)

    Trying to put together the ultimate dilemma of strike rate and yield is the answer. None of the acca teams would be "bad" bets but they wouldn't be bets I would be mega confident of, in the LR I would estimate them to have an 8% - 15% edge. Tough to justify laying 13/1 though at 5dimes.

    I'll warn you now, friday picks before 1am sat morning are unlikely I'm afraid due to other commitments this friday. I might post up a few but there won't be any x2s before that time.

    Thanks for reading!