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Ok, the figures are all in the mixer and have churned out what looks like an interesting set of picks. There's definitely some big value to be had out there, but we found out last week that you can't eat value, so let's hope it converts into some pound notes tomorrow.
Bolton x 2
Swindon
Arsenal
Everton
Leeds x 2
Hibernian x 2
Rangers
Stevenage x 2
Crystal Palace
Peterborough
Plymouth
Sheff Wed
Bournemouth
Cheltenham
Bradford
Salisbury x 2 - a note about this one. They were very close to being a bet in the week (on pure figures they were, and they went on a HEAVY drift due to injury problems. In the end it was deemed a no bet by me on extreme team news grounds. They barely had a fit back 4. Found out after the game they have signed a southampton central defender on loan (must assume he's half decent) and also have one more defender back for this one. I don't think the injuries have been priced here (especially as mansfield also have 3 players out and one more doubtful - so for me it makes the grade at 4/1 for an x2. FTR in the week they drew 2-2 unable to hold on to the lead, so it was a bet saved, but they went off odds against DNB on the asians, which I felt was probably value in the circumstances).
St Johnstone.
And the 0.1 pt acca for tomorrow:
Leeds
Stevenage
MK Dons
Bournemouth
Dundee United
Hibernian
Wrexham
Hartlepool
should be looking to get 100/1+ there - and if that isn't value I don't know what is.
Good luck if you follow, don't bet money you are emotionally attached to!
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Still new to the blog thing really - just activated the feature that can email me when someone adds a comment - might help! Hope its not too late for you to get on mark.
ReplyDeletejust got 50.815 on todays games at 188bet, carryover to dundee utd if it gets that far!
ReplyDeleteleeds and wrexham let the acca down. Keep backing those at 49/1 and it won't be long before a winner I'm sure!
ReplyDeletea nice day all in all and bolton obliged on the x2 front. Its rare that a premiership game gets itself in that sort of frame of game, about 1/4 ball out on the asian handicaps (in my opinion). Some must have agreed because there was plenty of money for west ham in the morning but the layers were out in force to keep the price relatively stable.
looking forward to the midweek and hoping everton can seal the deal today.
A nice few results there Adam. Unfortunately I didn't see the picks until too late. I think if I'd done the x2s I'd have made 6 or 7 points :( What price did Bolton start? Well done anyway. Cheers Mark
ReplyDeleteBtw I think you've got this blog set to West Coast time - 8 hours behind
ReplyDeletethanks mark - I've sorted that now so I am on GMT, and now i get the emails whenever someone posts a comment as well which is nice.
ReplyDeleteBolton went off at about 5.5 on betfair AFAIK, I got matched up to a tiny bit at 5.7 but there was buttons done at that price. Have not put together the closing lines yet for yesterday but will do when I have some more time.
Sorry you missed out, that's about the earliest I can get the picks up in general to be honest, and that's if I am not busy on friday nights, I try to avoid socialising on them but sometimes people just don't read the script on that one!
Back of the envelope calculation tells me about 7.6 points profit on the x2s.
Swindon 0-4 was a result that really surprised me I must say. A hell of a shock, I'd have made that result a huge huge price. I think they are the most underrated team and overpriced on a very regular basis, I love teams like that, they occur all over the place even in the big leagues. Unfashionable and often drift and win.
BTW Mark, sorry you missed out, better luck next time :)
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