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Small card.
Stockport x 2
Ebbsfleet
With a rider to ebbsfleet being that I would want around the 5/1 mark. Would not back below 9/2 for sure on that one.
Can stockport oblige away again? Seems unlikely, but you never know.
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disappointed Ebbsfleet couldn't get it done after being 2-1 up. I might re-assess what's been done so far from an asian handicapping POV since it will allow for far less in terms of losing runs etc.
ReplyDeleteHang in there, a few disappointing results shouldn't lead to a total abandonment of strategy?
ReplyDeleteThanks Dave - not looking at abandonment - more thinking about proofing something side by side I had been thinking about from the beginning, certain games fit a profile of the away team getting + 0.75 goals or +1 goals on the asian handicap, where (according to my figures) a more correct framework would be + 0.5 goals. It would mean more wins and less of a losing run.
ReplyDeleteLooking back on the season's figures, despite a 30% yield (which is now down to 29) there was a flat spot of 100 games without making any profit! The original logic is sound, I'll just consider posting an asian handicap as an aside when I feel the opportunity occurs.
Both the selections would have been +1 or +3/4 I suppose so they woud both have at least broken even, but then you miss out on the big win when they hit.
ReplyDeleteWhat else do you do Adam? It can't just be these football bets and turning over to keep your Betfair account at 2% - not that I understand the concept behind this. You've alluded to other businesses, are they totally unrelated to gambling? One other question, how many hours approximately do you spend in front of the computer each day/week/month? Cheers Mark
Hi Mark
ReplyDeleteYeah the early lines for BR were -1/+1 and then it was bet to almost evens each of two for the -3/4 ball. There was a lot of money around for stockport last night, pretty sure someone was trying to get on for whatever they could get above 5/1 on betfair (not me!). Kettering were gambled and so there was more likelihood of a +1 on ebbsfleet nearer the off.
Was more thinking of running them in parallel and perhaps just laying the home team. Its tough in a season like this because the draws have run to such a freakishly high percentage, so of course it pays to have them on side. Like at the moment I keep looking at pretty much any team away from home in the prem at a short price and think "LAY" because they have done so poorly this season. It won't be a continuing trend though I don't think, unless the gap between the top and bottom really is narrowing (and is it really, in a division where we have burnley, hull, bolton, etc?)
I've got a master betfair account and a number of subs who I have varying arrangements with. I also bet a few other sports including golf and horse racing with varying degrees of success (although really I just bet those because I am confident I can return 0-5% in the long run, and that mitigates any betfair Premium Charge concerns).
My other business is related to gambling also, yes, but it is taxable income not earnings from gambling directly, earnings from promoting bookmakers and acting as an agent.
At the moment I'm not having to spend as much time as before in front of the computer, because a lot of the stuff is automated - I could be getting away with probably 4 hours a day at the moment apart from saturdays and some tuesdays, although I'm normally around longer than that reading forums etc.
About 4-5 years ago at the peak of my arbitrage I was spending about 100 hours in front of the comp each week, although at the time I was also working so that accounted for about 40 of those! Tough, because it was very draining, but very addictive, continuously seeing your bankroll grow day by day. I miss those feelings but I also miss the money I could have made had I been a little smarter about what I was arbitraging!
I've now got to 2.45 points profit on bets posted so far. Better than losing! But only just. Let's hope for a positive weekend.
ReplyDelete2.45 profit is as you say a profit. Shame I didn't follow your first weekend's picks but only backing x2 mweans I am only slightly down right now.
ReplyDeleteBookmaker agent! Poacher and gamekeeper in one!
What have you got automated? I always thought that would be a good way forward, once I found an edge, but then read about bots going crazy and it scared me off!! Cheers Mark
Hi mark - I just have some horse racing stuff automated at the moment, working on some footy ideas and hopefully putting them into practice soon.
ReplyDeleteAny idea when you will have your picks up Adam? I'm out tomorrow morning so won't have time to follow you in. Any chance of posting them this evening? FWIW Southampton are my strongest bet this week and I managed to get some 11/10 earlier in the week. How do they stack up in your ratings? Cheers Mark
ReplyDeleteNot sure when you posted that Mark, the time on this blog I should really sort out so its actually GMT! I am posting in a few minutes if you are still watching!
ReplyDeleteSouthampton I would want 11/10. Its impossible not to be seduced by them at the moment. I have no doubt that at 2:59 tomorrow they will be a lot shorter than that. If they were 1.80 (which I think is a possibility, they do appear to be on fire and steaming) I might even consider laying off.
FWIW I think that its a case here of the very recent form taking TOO much of a part in forming this market. This is something that the ratings discount a little and can sometimes give a more balanced view of the big picture. The underlying numbers don't say that southampton are justified to be odds on. Step back a little and consider that if tranmere get to 4/1+ (entirely possible) then I would consider that to be the value bet on the game. Depends if I am right about the direction of the public money from asia!